Max Verstappen claimed a surprise pole position for the Japanese Grand Prix but he’ll have to repel the rapid McLarens for 53 laps to claim his first victory of the year.
The threat of rain hangs over Sunday’s race at Suzuka, but will it actually materialise? Here’s the key data for the Japanese Grand Prix.Weather
There has been a lot of chatter about the possibility of rain arriving on Sunday. If it happens, it will be the second time in just three rounds this year the teams have faced a wet grand prix after two days of dry practice.
However the forecasts have been shifting over the past few days. While there is strong agreement showers will hit the track prior to the race start time at 2pm, some models indicate those will pass before then, or soon afterwards.
The chances of a Melbourne-style race, in which strategists are fixated upon the radar knowing a shower is on its way, are receding. At the moment the likelier scenario is the race starts on a wet track, possibly with rain still falling, which then eases and allows the track to dry out.
In that scenario, strategies will revolve around the point at which drivers feel they can make the transition from intermediates to slicks – and potentially from full wets to intermediates if drivers use the most extreme rain tyre available.
Start
The run to turn one to Suzuka is slightly longer than at most F1 tracks. The driver starting second therefore has a chance to draw alongside the pole winner before the first corner, but as the first corner is fairly high speed, they don’t have the opportunity for a late-braking lunge.
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Verstappen may not have the benefit of his team mate starting alongside him like last year, but the Red Bull gets off the line dependably well, usually better than the McLaren. But although on paper it looks unlikely the pole winner might lose his lead at the start, at the last race Norris gained a place on lap one while Verstappen uncharacteristically lost two.
Distance from pole position to first braking zone. Source: Mercedes
Strategy
The drivers’ choice of starting tyre may become moot if the track is wet. Last year several drivers gambled on using the more fragile soft rubber in the hope of gaining places at the start.
Last year drivers chose the following compounds to start the race on:
| Pos. | Driver | Team | Tyre compound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT | Medium |
| 2 | Sergio Perez | Red Bull-Honda RBPT | Medium |
| 3 | Lando Norris | McLaren-Mercedes | Medium |
| 4 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Ferrari | Medium |
| 5 | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin-Mercedes | Soft |
| 6 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren-Mercedes | Medium |
| 7 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Medium |
| 8 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | Medium |
| 9 | George Russell | Mercedes | Medium |
| 10 | Yuki Tsunoda | RB-Honda RBPT | Medium |
| 11 | Daniel Ricciardo | RB-Honda RBPT | Medium |
| 12 | Nico Hulkenberg | Haas-Ferrari | Soft |
| 13 | Valtteri Bottas | Sauber-Ferrari | Soft |
| 14 | Alexander Albon | Williams-Mercedes | Soft |
| 15 | Esteban Ocon | Alpine-Renault | Soft |
| 16 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin-Mercedes | Soft |
| 17 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine-Renault | Soft |
| 18 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas-Ferrari | Medium |
| 19 | Logan Sargeant | Williams-Mercedes | Soft |
| 20 | Zhou Guanyu | Sauber-Ferrari | Medium |
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The drivers have the following sets of dry weather tyres available for the grand prix. No drivers have used any wet weather tyres so far:
| Tyres available for the race | Hard | Medium | Soft | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | New | Used | New | Used | New | Used |
| Lando Norris | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Oscar Piastri | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Charles Leclerc | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Max Verstappen | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| George Russell | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Lance Stroll | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Fernando Alonso | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Jack Doohan | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Pierre Gasly | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Esteban Ocon | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Oliver Bearman | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Isack Hadjar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Liam Lawson | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Alexander Albon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
In last year’s dry race, most teams favoured a two-stop strategy. However some drivers took the opportunity to fit fresh rubber when the race was red-flagged on the first lap due to a crash.
As always, if drivers can eke their tyres out long enough to complete the race on a single pit stop, they will. However any rubber build-up is likely to be washed away before the race, so if conditions are dry the drivers will likely find it tough on their rubber, increasing the chance of multi-stop strategies. Pitting costs around 23 seconds at Suzuka.
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Overtaking
Suzuka’s DRS configuration is unchanged for this year’s race. If the race is wet, DRS will be deactivated until conditions dry out. As the only zone leads into a high-speed corner where there has already been one major crash this weekend, race control may be wary of enabling DRS too soon.
Safety Cars
The limited run-off at Suzuka creates a significant risk of Safety Car periods and other interruptions. Last year’s race was interrupted by a single red flag period.
In a change for this weekend, drivers have been given specific instructions on where they should park damaged cars in order to reduce the likelihood of the Safety Car being deployed.
Over to you
Will McLaren find a way to take victory from Verstappen? Share your views on the Japanese Grand Prix in the comments.
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2025 Japanese Grand Prix
- McLaren has to accept upsetting either of its drivers sometimes – Stella
- Verstappen ‘can test our car, I look forward to seeing his disappointment’ – Norris
- Verstappen insists McLaren domination claim was ‘no joke’ after Piastri’s doubt
- Extra mandatory pit stop won’t create more passing at tracks like Suzuka – Sainz
- Mercedes took note of Verstappen’s out-lap tactics after stunning Suzuka pole position
El Pollo Loco
6th April 2025, 1:29
RE: Grass fires
Absolutely zero need for red flags unless the fire is causing a visibility issue. This is clearly something that should be dealt with via either a local double yellow or a VSC. A red flag is insane overkill. There’s little talk about this because there’s a demo who will automatically deem you a monster for questioning any type or level of precaution no matter how ridiculous. But the fact is we now average multiple GPs per season which have more SCs and red flags than entire seasons had in every race combined prior to 2019 when we lost Whiting.
Unless it is scorching hot (and it isn’t), simply watering the grass enough that its base is damp should ensure no fires. But F1 isn’t big on common sense. Hopefully, it rained last night as was forecast.
Jere (@jerejj)
6th April 2025, 3:08
I agree regarding grass fires specifically, although neutralizations have fortunately been more & more uncommon for a little while.
bull mello (@bullmello)
6th April 2025, 1:45
Looks like some rain on the track area? Earlier, maybe?
El Pollo Loco
6th April 2025, 2:10
Rain was forecast to fall overnight. No rain close to GP though.
Crawliin-from-the-wreckage- Special Unhinged Edition (@davedai)
6th April 2025, 5:41
It has rained but drying fast.. Lando’s (right side) is “damper”, All should be slick though
Jere (@jerejj)
6th April 2025, 3:08
Will McLaren find a way to take victory from Verstappen?
– I’m positive they will.