Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari, Monaco, 2025

2025 Monaco Grand Prix strategy briefing: All the data to follow the race with

2025 Monaco Grand Prix pre-race analysis

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Lando Norris hasn’t had a pole position or a grand prix victory since the season-opening race in Australia.

He’s back at the sharp end of the grid for the Monaco Grand Prix – but a rules change means that may not prove the ticket to victory it has in the past.

Here’s your strategy dashboard for Sunday’s 78 laps of Monte-Carlo.

Weather

The warm and dry conditions in Monaco are expected to remain for another day. However Sunday will be somewhat cloudier, which may help keep track temperatures down.

Start

The run to the first corner in Monaco is short, narrow and curved. The pole-winner has a very good chance of making it to turn one in the lead.

Distance from pole position to first braking zone. Source: Mercedes

Assuming that happens, how Lando Norris chooses to position his car could have a significant bearing on who emerges in second place. He has Charles Leclerc alongside him on the outside and team mate Oscar Piastri immediately behind him in third place.

Last year Piastri started on the outside and had to fend off a bold attack from Carlos Sainz Jnr, which left the Ferrari driver with a puncture. This year Piastri’s best chance of getting past Leclerc could come at the start.

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Start, Monaco, 2024

Strategy

Teams will have to rethink their tactics for the race as Formula 1 has introduced new regulations for the Monaco Grand Prix requiring them to use three sets of tyres instead of the usual two. The full details of the rule changes, the effects they could have on strategy and the possibility teams may exploit the new rules were covered in detail here earlier:

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Last year drivers chose the following compounds to start the race on:

Pos. Driver Team Tyre compound
1 Charles Leclerc Ferrari Medium
2 Oscar Piastri McLaren-Mercedes Medium
3 Carlos Sainz Jnr Ferrari Medium
4 Lando Norris McLaren-Mercedes Medium
5 George Russell Mercedes Hard
6 Max Verstappen Red Bull-Honda RBPT Hard
7 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes Hard
8 Yuki Tsunoda RB-Honda RBPT Medium
9 Alexander Albon Williams-Mercedes Medium
10 Pierre Gasly Alpine-Renault Hard
11 Esteban Ocon Alpine-Renault Hard
12 Daniel Ricciardo RB-Honda RBPT Medium
13 Lance Stroll Aston Martin-Mercedes Hard
14 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin-Mercedes Hard
15 Logan Sargeant Williams-Mercedes Hard
16 Sergio Perez Red Bull-Honda RBPT Hard
17 Valtteri Bottas Sauber-Ferrari Hard
18 Zhou Guanyu Sauber-Ferrari Medium
19 Nico Hulkenberg Haas-Ferrari Medium
20 Kevin Magnussen Haas-Ferrari Hard

A pit stop takes around 19 seconds.

The drivers have the following sets of dry weather tyres available for the grand prix:

Tyres available for the race Hard Medium Soft
Driver New Used New Used New Used
Lando Norris 2 0 1 0 0 3
Charles Leclerc 1 0 1 1 0 3
Oscar Piastri 2 0 1 0 0 3
Lewis Hamilton 1 1 0 1 0 3
Max Verstappen 1 0 1 0 0 4
Isack Hadjar 0 1 1 0 0 4
Fernando Alonso 0 2 0 1 0 3
Esteban Ocon 1 0 1 1 0 3
Liam Lawson 0 1 1 0 0 4
Alexander Albon 1 0 0 2 0 3
Carlos Sainz Jnr 1 0 1 1 1 3
Yuki Tsunoda 1 0 1 0 1 4
Nico Hulkenberg 1 0 1 0 1 4
George Russell 2 0 1 1 2 1
Andrea Kimi Antonelli 2 0 2 0 1 2
Gabriel Bortoleto 1 0 1 0 3 2
Oliver Bearman 1 0 2 0 2 2
Pierre Gasly 1 0 1 1 3 1
Lance Stroll 0 2 0 1 2 2
Franco Colapinto 1 0 1 1 3 1

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Overtaking

Passing is, of course, extremely difficult in Monaco. The new rules introduced for this year may lead to more situations where we see drivers on fresh tyres being held up by rivals tactically reducing their speed to help a team mate. But as we’ve seen many times in the past, drivers can lap far below the maximum pace in Monaco without any danger of being passed.

The stewards have already dished out one penalty point for a collision this weekend.

Speed trap

P. # Driver Car Engine Model Max kph (mph)
1 23 Alexander Albon Williams Mercedes FW47 282.8 (175.7)
2 16 Charles Leclerc Ferrari Ferrari SF-25 282.7 (175.7)
3 27 Nico Hulkenberg Sauber Ferrari C45 282.7 (175.7)
4 44 Lewis Hamilton Ferrari Ferrari SF-25 282.7 (175.7)
5 63 George Russell Mercedes Mercedes W16 282.2 (175.4)
6 31 Esteban Ocon Haas Ferrari VF-25 282.1 (175.3)
7 87 Oliver Bearman Haas Ferrari VF-25 281.9 (175.2)
8 18 Lance Stroll Aston Martin Mercedes AMR25 281.9 (175.2)
9 81 Oscar Piastri McLaren Mercedes MCL39 281.6 (175.0)
10 12 Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes Mercedes W16 281.6 (175.0)
11 30 Liam Lawson Racing Bulls Honda RBPT 02 281.5 (174.9)
12 10 Pierre Gasly Alpine Renault A525 281.4 (174.9)
13 14 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin Mercedes AMR25 281.3 (174.8)
14 6 Isack Hadjar Racing Bulls Honda RBPT 02 281.1 (174.7)
15 4 Lando Norris McLaren Mercedes MCL39 280.7 (174.4)
16 22 Yuki Tsunoda Red Bull Honda RBPT RB21 280.7 (174.4)
17 1 Max Verstappen Red Bull Honda RBPT RB21 280.6 (174.4)
18 5 Gabriel Bortoleto Sauber Ferrari C45 280.3 (174.2)
19 55 Carlos Sainz Jnr Williams Mercedes FW47 280.1 (174.0)
20 43 Franco Colapinto Alpine Renault A525 279.9 (173.9)

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Safety Cars

The possibility of a Safety Car, Virtual Safety Car or red flag in the race could have a significant bearing on the race, as many teams will be holding out for one in the hope of making a low-cost pit stop.

Last year a first-lap red flag allowed every driver to complete their mandatory tyre change immediately. But with two tyre changes now required, it would take two red flags to achieve that.

Grid

The grid for this year’s race is as follows. Any changes between now and the start of the race will be added here:

Championship implications

If the drivers finish where they start, Norris will slash Piastri’s points lead from 13 points to just three. Fernando Alonso and Liam Lawson are also poised to claim their first points of the season.

Over to you

How do you think teams will handle the unique rules for this weekend’s race? Share your views on the Monaco Grand Prix in the comments.

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2025 Monaco Grand Prix

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Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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17 comments on “2025 Monaco Grand Prix strategy briefing: All the data to follow the race with”

  1. Given the propensity of teams and drivers making a ridicule of FIA regulations, I can only imagine that some teams will make a pitstop before lap 3.
    Sincerely, if someone took crazy pills, one could even make them both before lap 10. The first by lap 1 or 2, then as soon there is enough gap to not be lapped, make the second one and hold track position to the chequered flag.

    1. Same, although no driver would be at the risk of getting lapped during the second pit stop if both were done by lap 10 unless the first stop is extremely slow or features a puncture beforehand.

    2. And then we get a safety car or a red flag you finish P20.

      1. Exactly, I have a hard time thinking pitting immediately is a winning strategy, you give up track position, which is paramount.

        1. Yeah, the point is, if a driver already has a poor track position, then the gamble might be worthy.
          If one is already expecting to finish 16th to 20th, trying something new is interesting.
          Also, think about Sainz, he can expect to gain many positions on the track. So, he would at least have something to talk about in the post race.

  2. I expect most drivers outside the top 10 to pit lap 1 or 2 then with the high number of Rookie drivers plus the like of Blind Man Stroll I fully expect at least 1 red flag for another change of Tyres.

    It represents the best chance for drivers outside the points to be able to get into a position for points on a track almost nobody can pass on.

    1. The back-end starters are the most viable candidates for an early pit stop since they have the least to lose by doing so.

    2. One wonders why you then need to watch. I’m just going to watch and find out what happens. Sport works better that way

      1. @tonymansell This whole article is about what we can expect from the race and in this comment section people can express their views. No need to be rude.

  3. How do you think teams will handle the unique rules for this weekend’s race?
    – I reckon at least some might do away with the first of their minimum requirement within the first five laps, even as early as on lap one or two, but we’ll see.

  4. Surely we’ll see a few cars pitting on lap 1 then try to catch back the end of the snake and wait until VSC/SC/red flag for the next change.

    The front runners will probably aim for the opposite, waiting for VSC/SC/red to make their pit stops and hope to get 2 of them.

  5. I’m wondering what red bull are planning to do.

    They seem to have very few tires available.

    Start on the soft and pit after a lap?

    1. That’s a losing strategy for verstappen, he’d get stuck in traffic behind way slower cars, unless he’s able to overtake them like he did in 2018, but in recent times we’ve seen a lot less overtaking here.

    2. Hards, don’t stop, win by more than a minute!

    3. Maybe they just switch back to an old set of tires. Or start on softs in the hope to gain a place at the start and then manage the tires like crazy. For Tsunoda an early stop makes sense, as he doesn’t have much to lose.

  6. An Sionnach
    25th May 2025, 11:58

    Some interesting ideas here, already. It would be interesting to compare team notes on strategy. Do the teams that more consistently do well have more homework done? When are red flags most statistically likely? How long to wait before you are losing time by waiting any further? If a team chooses to go long or short and there’s little else to their strategy, they’ll be exposed when they go into unknown territory. Do the best race teams have a detailed strategy map in place, along with the ability to think on their feet? Red Bull holding their nerve last week comes to mind. They seemed to know that the surprise of Leclerc benefiting from the early stop wasn’t going to be the best strategy for Max.

    I’d like to see a Lando win this time. He’s fast and should have the confidence to put it on pole more often than not and sail off into the sunset. That’s clearly more difficult this year, but he has the talent to do this and I don’t think it has gone away. Leclerc is possibly the best driver around Monaco. Might be nice to see him win a better race this time around.

    Strategy for the front of the field? Start as well as possible, keep it clean and aim to be close enough during the pit stop window to gain one position. If the opportunity presents itself to gain at the start, go for it, but only if it’s a guaranteed opportunity (so where an opponent has been slow off the line). Not very adventurous, but at a track like this you have to learn to not be greedy. Yes, you could gain one position by taking a lot of risk. You probably stand to gain more by keeping it clean (Olivier Panis, 1996). No rain expected today, but the biggest chances to gain will be from red flags or, more generally, getting the two pit stops in at the right time. The pit crews will be important. The top teams, while generally good, have had the odd hiccup this year. This isn’t the place to drop half a second or more in the pits. Teams that do poor stops and consistently get strategy wrong like Aston Martin may suffer.

  7. BLS (@brightlampshade)
    25th May 2025, 13:14

    The forced 2 stop has the potential to be interesting (unless safety cars / red flags force the issue). But it feels like a one trick pony. If they do it next season everyone will be more wise to how things will play out.

    I’m willing to give it a chance, but if it is deemed a success then I worry about what that may mean for all races going forward.

Comments are closed.