For Mercedes’ rivals there was a depressing degree of familiarity about the manner in which they suddenly produced a burst of extra speed in qualifying. Even if, as it later emerged, the six-tenths margin Lewis Hamilton suddenly pulled out at the end of Q3 did not coincide with the moment they activated their ‘party mode’.
They can’t turn up the power for as long in the race, however, which is why Mercedes’ rivals expect to claw back up to four tenths of a second of their lap time advantage in the race. So we could be in for a competitive start to the season.
Hamilton and the two Ferraris immediately behind him will start on ultra-soft tyres. Red Bull, seeking a strategic advantage, will use super-softs on both their cars: Verstappen in fourth and Daniel Ricciardo, following his penalty, eighth.
Pirelli’s tyre choices for the opening rounds of the season are more conservative than what we will see later on, as the tyres had to be selected before pre-season testing. Therefore their goal of creating two-stop races is unlikely to be realised here.
Ultra-soft followed by soft was the winning strategy last year and is likely to be again this year. Any potential lap time advantage gained from pitting twice is likely to be more than nullified by the time lost in traffic at a venue where drivers need at least a two seconds lap time advantage to overtake.
Ultra-soft followed by super-soft is “probably a bit at the limit”, reckoned Pirelli’s sporting director Mario Isola. “But it depends the team you are considering because some teams are stressing the tyre more and wearing the tyre more.”
“Some teams, maybe also the pace is lower, therefore the degradation is lower and the wear is lower. Some teams maybe in the midfield are able to run the race with ultra and super.”
Will any of the front-runners dare? The indication last year was that they usually would, but with so much still unknown about the performance of their cars they may well play it safe. The tricky conditions at the track this weekend will also nudge them towards being conservative.
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Rain at the track today reduced grip levels and more rainfall is possible before the race. That plus continued cooler temperatures could make graining a problem.
For Haas, tomorrow is an opportunity to bag a significant points haul from their best ever two-car qualifying performance. Magnussen said he doubts he’ll be able to keep Ricciardo behind. But with Valtteri Bottas likely to start 15th at best following a gearbox change, at least one of them may be able to out-run the delayed Mercedes. Remember Magnussen kept Hamilton’s wounded Mercedes behind in Mexico last year.
As for Hamilton, Bottas’s crash means he will have no ‘tail-gunner’ tomorrow, which Mercedes motorsport boss Toto Wolff acknowledged puts him at a disadvantage.
“Even if you’re able to stay in the lead and the two Ferraris are right behind you, you are at the risk of being undercut or overcut by one of the cars [in the pits].
“One car doesn’t give you as many opportunities as two. Take into consideration two more Red Bulls, he’ll be out there at the beginning on his own trying to fight for it.”
But ironically, the fast one of Mercedes’ opponents is stronger could work in their favour. Last year Sebastian Vettel was able to jump Hamilton partly because the Mercedes dropped behind Verstappen after pitting. But as the Red Bull is so much quicker this year that may not be a threat this time.
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Qualifying times in full
| Driver | Car | Q1 | Q2 (vs Q1) | Q3 (vs Q2) | |
| 1 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1’22.824 | 1’22.051 (-0.773) | 1’21.164 (-0.887) |
| 2 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1’23.096 | 1’22.507 (-0.589) | 1’21.828 (-0.679) |
| 3 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 1’23.348 | 1’21.944 (-1.404) | 1’21.838 (-0.106) |
| 4 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 1’23.483 | 1’22.416 (-1.067) | 1’21.879 (-0.537) |
| 5 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | 1’23.494 | 1’22.897 (-0.597) | 1’22.152 (-0.745) |
| 6 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas | 1’23.909 | 1’23.300 (-0.609) | 1’23.187 (-0.113) |
| 7 | Romain Grosjean | Haas | 1’23.671 | 1’23.468 (-0.203) | 1’23.339 (-0.129) |
| 8 | Nico Hulkenberg | Renault | 1’23.782 | 1’23.544 (-0.238) | 1’23.532 (-0.012) |
| 9 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Renault | 1’23.529 | 1’23.061 (-0.468) | 1’23.577 (+0.516) |
| 10 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | 1’23.686 | 1’22.089 (-1.597) | |
| 11 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren | 1’23.597 | 1’23.692 (+0.095) | |
| 12 | Stoffel Vandoorne | McLaren | 1’24.073 | 1’23.853 (-0.220) | |
| 13 | Sergio Perez | Force India | 1’24.344 | 1’24.005 (-0.339) | |
| 14 | Lance Stroll | Williams | 1’24.464 | 1’24.230 (-0.234) | |
| 15 | Esteban Ocon | Force India | 1’24.503 | 1’24.786 (+0.283) | |
| 16 | Brendon Hartley | Toro Rosso | 1’24.532 | ||
| 17 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | 1’24.556 | ||
| 18 | Charles Leclerc | Sauber | 1’24.636 | ||
| 19 | Sergey Sirotkin | Williams | 1’24.922 | ||
| 20 | Pierre Gasly | Toro Rosso | 1’25.295 |
Sector times
| Driver | Sector 1 | Sector 2 | Sector 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Hamilton | 26.698 (1) | 22.066 (1) | 32.400 (1) |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 26.992 (3) | 22.204 (3) | 32.632 (5) |
| Sebastian Vettel | 27.018 (4) | 22.129 (2) | 32.691 (6) |
| Max Verstappen | 26.971 (2) | 22.241 (4) | 32.563 (3) |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 27.237 (6) | 22.448 (6) | 32.464 (2) |
| Kevin Magnussen | 27.487 (8) | 22.628 (7) | 33.065 (8) |
| Romain Grosjean | 27.546 (11) | 22.636 (8) | 33.109 (9) |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 27.521 (10) | 22.653 (10) | 33.176 (10) |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | 27.395 (7) | 22.656 (11) | 32.972 (7) |
| Valtteri Bottas | 27.169 (5) | 22.332 (5) | 32.588 (4) |
| Fernando Alonso | 27.489 (9) | 22.647 (9) | 33.206 (11) |
| Stoffel Vandoorne | 27.567 (12) | 22.741 (12) | 33.387 (12) |
| Sergio Perez | 27.618 (13) | 22.786 (14) | 33.518 (13) |
| Lance Stroll | 27.793 (14) | 22.771 (13) | 33.657 (18) |
| Esteban Ocon | 27.865 (16) | 22.938 (16) | 33.572 (14) |
| Brendon Hartley | 27.993 (18) | 22.942 (17) | 33.597 (16) |
| Marcus Ericsson | 27.812 (15) | 22.963 (18) | 33.704 (19) |
| Charles Leclerc | 28.153 (20) | 22.901 (15) | 33.582 (15) |
| Sergey Sirotkin | 27.964 (17) | 23.100 (19) | 33.620 (17) |
| Pierre Gasly | 28.146 (19) | 23.144 (20) | 33.959 (20) |
Speed trap
| Pos | Driver | Car | Engine | Speed (kph/mph) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sergio Perez | Force India | Mercedes | 323.7 (201.1) | |
| 2 | Esteban Ocon | Force India | Mercedes | 323.3 (200.9) | -0.4 |
| 3 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | Ferrari | 321.3 (199.6) | -2.4 |
| 4 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | Ferrari | 320.5 (199.1) | -3.2 |
| 5 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Mercedes | 318.7 (198.0) | -5.0 |
| 6 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | Mercedes | 317.8 (197.5) | -5.9 |
| 7 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | Ferrari | 316.5 (196.7) | -7.2 |
| 8 | Romain Grosjean | Haas | Ferrari | 316.1 (196.4) | -7.6 |
| 9 | Charles Leclerc | Sauber | Ferrari | 315.7 (196.2) | -8.0 |
| 10 | Brendon Hartley | Toro Rosso | Honda | 314.9 (195.7) | -8.8 |
| 11 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas | Ferrari | 314.8 (195.6) | -8.9 |
| 12 | Lance Stroll | Williams | Mercedes | 312.9 (194.4) | -10.8 |
| 13 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | TAG Heuer | 312.5 (194.2) | -11.2 |
| 14 | Pierre Gasly | Toro Rosso | Honda | 312.3 (194.1) | -11.4 |
| 15 | Sergey Sirotkin | Williams | Mercedes | 311.2 (193.4) | -12.5 |
| 16 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | TAG Heuer | 311.1 (193.3) | -12.6 |
| 17 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Renault | Renault | 310.4 (192.9) | -13.3 |
| 18 | Nico Hulkenberg | Renault | Renault | 309.9 (192.6) | -13.8 |
| 19 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren | Renault | 309.8 (192.5) | -13.9 |
| 20 | Stoffel Vandoorne | McLaren | Renault | 308.0 (191.4) | -15.7 |
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Drivers’ remaining tyres
| Driver | Team | Soft | Super-soft | Ultra-soft | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New | Used | New | Used | New | Used | ||
| Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Sergio Perez | Force India | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Esteban Ocon | Force India | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Lance Stroll | Williams | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Sergey Sirotkin | Williams | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | Renault | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | Renault | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Pierre Gasly | Toro Rosso | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Brendon Hartley | Toro Rosso | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Romain Grosjean | Haas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Kevin Magnussen | Haas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Fernando Alonso | McLaren | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Stoffel Vandoorne | McLaren | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Charles Leclerc | Sauber | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Over to you
Who will win the first F1 race of 2018? Can Haas capitalise on their row three lock-out?
Share your views on how the Australian Grand Prix will unfold in the comments.
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Kribana (@krichelle)
24th March 2018, 21:05
Lewis may have 7 poles here but shockingly, he only has 2 wins here. Both the times he won, he went on to win the drivers’ title.
Esploratore (@esploratore)
25th March 2018, 0:34
So basically if he wins tomorrow the championship is over! These particular occurances usually keep working in the future, for example, kvyat got demoted, verstappen won, people predicted he’d win again and won the next 2 races where he got demoted.
No one who won in hungary after schumacher in 2004 ever won the title, vettel was in a good position in 2017 championship, he won hungary and had a lot of bad luck later in the season and lost the title.
Esploratore (@esploratore)
25th March 2018, 0:35
Today, actually.*
Jere (@jerejj)
25th March 2018, 3:48
@esploratore Yeah, but in the end, these type of things are just mere coincidences, so these particular streaks can easily come to an end any season.
Eric (@fletch)
24th March 2018, 21:06
Great graphics. I’m really enjoying this revamped site. Going to subscribe very soon
Green Flag (@greenflag)
24th March 2018, 21:09
Hamilton doesn’t need Bottas behind him, nor does he care who finishes second.
hahostolze (@hahostolze)
24th March 2018, 21:49
People seem very sceptical of the RB supersoft plan. Unless it means they can run SS/US I don’t think it realistically has any benefit other than track position, which frankly is only relative with DRS.
David BR (@david-br)
24th March 2018, 23:34
Plus if the race starts on intermediates, any advantage is zeroed anyhow.
Girts (@girts)
24th March 2018, 22:21
I won’t hold my breath. Unless it rains, I think we are in for a one-stop snoozefest with Hamilton in control. But I’ll (obviously) watch it anyway!
FlatSix3.6 (@kegguts)
24th March 2018, 22:50
Did Toto say ‘tailgunner’, first race of the season?
That would take the assumption that VB would quali behind LH and be OK in that role?
Turn 1 will be interesting as always (be careful now Max).
Esploratore (@esploratore)
25th March 2018, 0:39
Well, don’t think there’s any doubt VB would start behind hamilton, not sure he’d make it to 2nd place, but probably yes, given the huge gap after hamilton; as he showed last years there were races he was better, but I don’t think he ever overtook hamilton on track, don’t think that’s happening, not necessarily cause of team orders but cause there’s not enough gap between the 2 cars, in general when bottas won he was already in front of hamilton at the start.
FlatSix3.6 (@kegguts)
25th March 2018, 3:39
I suppose this may negate any argument about both drivers being equal within the Mercedes team then?
David BR (@david-br)
24th March 2018, 23:38
True, Bottas can’t offer protection at the start, but he could usefully hold up Ferrari or Red Bull later in the race after a tyre change, depending on how the race pans out (including rain, safety cars, etc.). Mercedes should be more worried it doesn’t dent his confidence for the rest of the season, it’s a long haul and they need him operating on last year’s level at least.
dusty (@dusty)
25th March 2018, 2:03
The 5 worst speed trap speeds are Renault engines. Not good.