Can anyone keep Mercedes from an Abu Dhabi double six-in-a-row?

2019 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Friday practice analysis

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The Mercedes pair led the way in practice but Valtteri Bottas enjoyed a comfortable gap over team mate Lewis Hamilton. What was going on here?

On one hand, Bottas has the luxury of a fresh engine, good for seven races, which he can expend in a single event. That is weighed against the disadvantage of having to start from the back of the grid on Sunday. Does he have everything dialled up to 11 and is seeking an aggressive set-up for the race which will help him overtake?

Is that what that bizarre lunge at Romain Grosjean during second practice was all about? Bottas had lunged past Pierre Gasly from a long was back at the same corner a few laps earlier – perhaps these were a few practice passes.

Hamilton, however, spend the session experimenting with his car, his thoughts already on 2020. “I’m definitely hoping to unlock something,” he said after practice. “[I’ve been] utilising a couple of different tools that I haven’t really touched during the year just because it never really worked before. I’m trying to explore and see whether or not I can get them to work.”

“It’s really just a pre-emptive thought process for next year,” he explained. “Even though next year’s car is going to be different there still might be things I might be able to apply, but I’m having to take it all with a pinch of salt at the moment.”

So far there’s been little to suggest Mercedes won’t extend their run of five pole positions in a row and five wins in a row this weekend. Where might a challenger come from?

Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari, Yas Marina, 2019
Ferrari haven’t gone well in the final sector
Yas Marina has never been a Ferrari circuit. On the long straights of sectors one and two, the SF-90s looked strong today. But they suffer in the final sector where the life has gone from the tyres.

“We’re pretty much fighting the same things as the last couple of races,” said Sebastian Vettel. “These medium, low-speed type of corners, we are lacking speed compared to the others.

“Sector three is where it really hurts us. We struggle with the tyres getting hot and the car being quite difficult to drive.”

Vettel expects the team can find some more time from its set-up, but Charles Leclerc is concerned by the threat from Red Bull, who were barely any slower than then in second practice. Leclerc at least has an engine which is almost as fresh as Bottas’s for the next two days.

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Ferrari’s single-lap potency can’t be underestimated, however. And with Bottas doomed to start at the back, the silver cars definitely won’t have the front row to themselves.

Alexander Albon, Red Bull, Yas Marina, 2019
Is Albon quick enough to qualify on mediums?
Bottas aside, and perhaps Alexander Albon, expect the front-runners to qualify on the medium tyre, to avoid running the soft, which is not holding up well. That’s bad news for the fastest midfield teams, for with a one second gap between the soft and the medium compounds, they won’t be able to do the same, and will therefore have to start the race on used soft tyres.

Being able to start on new rubber “is an advantage here as we’ve seen” said Carlos Sainz Jnr. Last year he qualified 11th – ‘new tyre pole’ – start on a fresh sets of ‘mediums’ (‘ultra-softs’ in 2018 parlance), and ran a very long first stint before switching to the hardest tyres. That brought him home ‘best of the rest’ in sixth place.

The McLaren were hanging around just outside the top 10 in second practice. But the MCL34’s superiority in qualifying relative to their rivals may come back to haunt them, delivering the cars into Q3 and paying the price by starting on old rubber. It can’t be said how often enough how wretchedly unfair F1’s ‘Q2 tyre rule’ is.

“It’s not going to be easy,” said Sainz. “We need to make sure we put together everything, you know and even if you’re getting to Q3 and you’re seventh, it is not guaranteed that you’re going to finish in the points because of the tyre disadvantage, which is a pain.”

[icon2019autocoursempu]Behind the usual top three, the midfield is blink-and-miss-it close as ever. Haas, Racing Point and Toro Rosso were covered by five-hundredths of a second – though it remains to be seen how far Haas’s performance will be blunted now Romain Grosjean has lost the new floor upgrade he used to set their best time.

Daniel Ricciardo, who had to start using his race engine one session earlier after his failure in first practice, believes Renault can get in the mix too. But whichever of these drivers makes it into Q3, they may have to contemplate running the hard tyre early on the race in order reach the end on the preferred one-stop strategy.

“Here it’s difficult to have a race which is more than one-stop,” said Pirelli’s head of F1 and car racing Mario Isola. “We saw a number of cars on the hard compound today for the long runs.

“So it is possible that on if on Sunday we have the soft with high degradation some cars can decide to switch on a hard and keep a one-stop strategy as a baseline, using soft and hard instead of soft and medium.”

Longest stint comparison – second practice

This chart shows all the drivers’ lap times (in seconds) during their longest unbroken stint. Very slow laps omitted. Scroll to zoom, drag to pan, right-click to reset:

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Combined practice times

PosDriverCarFP1FP2Total laps
1Valtteri BottasMercedes1’36.9571’36.25652
2Lewis HamiltonMercedes1’37.5911’36.56652
3Charles LeclercFerrari1’39.2491’36.64248
4Sebastian VettelFerrari1’38.9061’36.69147
5Max VerstappenRed Bull-Honda1’37.4921’36.80752
6Alexander AlbonRed Bull-Honda1’38.0841’37.28853
7Romain GrosjeanHaas-Ferrari1’39.1461’37.60135
8Sergio PerezRacing Point-Mercedes1’39.9011’37.63748
9Daniil KvyatToro Rosso-Honda1’39.9691’37.65154
10Pierre GaslyToro Rosso-Honda1’40.4011’37.77053
11Carlos Sainz JnrMcLaren-Renault1’40.6871’37.83455
12Lando NorrisMcLaren-Renault1’39.6281’37.91850
13Lance StrollRacing Point-Mercedes1’39.8641’37.98555
14Kevin MagnussenHaas-Ferrari1’39.3501’38.08050
15Nico HulkenbergRenault1’39.5051’38.12251
16Daniel RicciardoRenault1’40.8501’38.40037
17Kimi RaikkonenAlfa Romeo-Ferrari1’39.8881’38.41547
18Antonio GiovinazziAlfa Romeo-Ferrari1’39.4231’38.46452
19George RussellWilliams-Mercedes1’41.3621’39.51255
20Robert KubicaWilliams-Mercedes1’40.7921’40.45552

Teams’ progress vs 2018

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Quotes: Dieter Rencken

2019 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

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Author information

Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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8 comments on “Can anyone keep Mercedes from an Abu Dhabi double six-in-a-row?”

  1. Bottas gets “Party Mode”. That might be fun.

  2. Well, at least one track where Williams has lost less than the most of the rest!

  3. isaac (@invincibleisaac)
    30th November 2019, 7:10

    I have a random question about the Q2 tyre rule: suppose someone has just set a lap that’s fast enough to get into Q3 (in one attempt) but on their in-lap they unexpectedly get a puncture. Of course, then they wouldn’t start the race on their Q2 tyres but what tyres would they have to start on?

    1. @invincibleisaac I suppose they’d then get to choose a different set of the same compound that had been in use for the fastest Q2-lap. Just a different physical set, as was the case with Leclerc in Baku, where Ferrari was allowed to do that for him following his Q2-crash even though the tyre set he had on didn’t seem to be in a greatly bad condition.

    2. @invincibleisaac, the rules state that driver then has to start the race with another set of tyres from their allocation which is the same compound type and has the closest comparable level of wear to the set they would have otherwise used.

  4. Why are they still insisting on keeping the existing starting tyre-set rule for next season instead of getting rid of it, and letting everyone choose which tyre-set to use for a race start?

  5. Is it just me? Or? Is this constant tyre kerfuffle & waffle becoming tyresome?
    Far too much focus on tyres in recent years imho.

  6. Looks like a straight fight between Max and Lewis.

    Bottas will be fun to watch until he gets up to the quickish cars and then the Mercedes straight line speed will be an issue.

    Leclerc vs Vettel will be fun.

Comments are closed.