Start, Red Bull Ring, 2019

Why extending the season into 2021 is no quick fix for F1’s calendar logjam

2020 F1 season

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Formula 1 chairman and CEO Chase Carey spoke reassuringly yesterday about the sport’s plans to rebuild its heavily disrupted 2020 season.

But as each Formula 1 grand prix is ‘postponed’ – PR-speak for ‘cancelled without admission’ – the sport’s problems are compounded. How to accommodate yet another race in what will be a heavily-truncated calendar whenever and however a sense of normality returns to the sport?

Assuming racing does commence in mid-June, as F1’s commercial rights holder Liberty Media fervently hopes it will, that leaves just six months and a couple of weeks in which to cram the same number of events that made up a full F1 season until a decade or so ago.

Although consideration is being given to extending whatever is left of this season into next year, there are obvious climatic limitations. Most venues situated north of the Tropic of Cancer fall squarely into a April-October hosting period, meaning only the Middle Eastern, Australian and Brazilian rounds, four total, can realistically be staged between November and March.

Australia is officially off for 2020
Of the four, two – Abu Dhabi and Brazil – already fall into November, while the current dates of Russia and Japan already push the edge of the timing envelope, as do those in the USA and Mexico. Despite initial comments to the contrary, Australia’s round will not be rescheduled. Just as well, as Malaysia discovered when it held two races within six months across 2000 and 2001 and attendance fell by 50%. One less.

The complications F1 faces in reorganising its calendar were detailed in last week’s RacingLines column. But clearly that hurdle is only the start of Liberty’s problems.

It usually takes six months of negotiation to build a calendar. Many circuits host a variety of championships, some up to four world class series: F1, WEC, WRX and MotoGP. There are bound to be clashes, if not within the same week then within the same month; if not at the same venue then within same territories. One F1-hosting circuit is said to be close to tipping over the edge already.

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F1 isn’t the only series on hold
Consider also the plight of fans: Will they be able to afford the time or cost of tickets at all given the economic upheaval across the globe, regardless of whether these events are crammed into narrow windows? In Europe, where races are held in (relative) close proximity, fans attend a number of events spread across a season, but are unlikely to attend two neighbouring events in the same month.

Then there is the question of eyeball saturation, not merely for F1 or even of all of motorsport, but of global sport generally. Imagine cramming 15 grands prix into as many weekends, while Moto GP, WEC, WRC, Formula E and WRX all attempt to salvage the maximum number of their events within the same timeframe, while football, tennis, rugby and cycling do the same, and the winter sports get underway.

The knock-on implications for broadcasters, too, are massive: they are committed to airing their contracted series, but are bound to run out of hours due to clashes, so which deserves priority? F1 or football? Moto GP or tennis? Formula E or cricket?

Equally, fewer broadcast minutes mean less advertising revenue. Previously global sport events were spread across 52 weekends, but the available slots will shrink by something like half, meaning proportionate drops in income. This assumes, of course, that Covid-19 is killed off by June. If not, revenues shrink further, affecting the ability of broadcasters to pay top dollar for future TV contracts, knocking Liberty and team income.

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Less airtime also means less sponsor exposure, in turn affecting Liberty’s advertising contracts, particularly of the ‘bridge and board’ variety. Once racing resumes expect plenty of ad ‘cluttering’ during broadcasts as F1’s world feed homes in on as many hoardings as possible and lingers on that giant sponsored clock to deliver maximum exposure for advertisers regardless.

These effects continue all the way down the F1 food chain: team sponsors will be hit by falling revenues, delaying the 2021 regulations and retaining current technology for another year will cut team spend with suppliers – already one hears of contractors being laid off and orders being reduced – and so on.

The mettle of an organisation is measured during times of crisis, and the task Liberty management now faces is turn the clear existential dangers facing the sport into future opportunities by taking appropriate decisions in the face of largely unknown external influences. While F1 marks its 70th anniversary in May, the next seven months are likely to be the most crucial in its chequered history.

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34 comments on “Why extending the season into 2021 is no quick fix for F1’s calendar logjam”

  1. Then there is the question of eyeball saturation, not merely for F1 or even of all of motorsport, but of global sport generally. […] The knock-on implications for broadcasters, too, are massive: they are committed to airing their contracted series, but are bound to run out of hours due to clashes, so which deserves priority?

    Let’s not forget the Olympics, whenever it happens. That’s going to suck eyeballs away (or at least, that’s what advertisers will fear), and if F1 is rescheduling, they’ll have to be cognizant of the fact that they’re not the dominant one when it comes to picking a weekend.

    team sponsors will be hit by falling revenues

    I see this as the biggest external threat to F1’s near-term future. Companies across the board are going to have to tighten their belts, trim down on discretionary spending, and preferentially keep funding in-house to keep their core business intact. It would not paint a nice picture for a sponsor to be laying off employees or cutting back on contract workers, while still making a sponsorship splash. And it’d be a double-whammy if that company is an automotive one running a team, or supplying the grid with components, or both (looking at you, Renault).

    delaying the 2021 regulations and retaining current technology for another year will cut team spend with suppliers

    Ah, unintended consequences, how do I hate thee? Let me count the ways.

    1. To add on to this, I think Liberty is going to face a bit of an unusual decision. There would be support extended from certain quarters (venues and sponsors) in the interest of sportswashing. Will Liberty bite, citing the “greater good” of the sport, or will they take a moral/social stance, similar to what they did with grid girls?

      Case in point – countries in the Middle East might be willing to host more than one GP in the same country, likewise Russia might be keen to put up a Potemkin facade not just at Sochi, but maybe another street circuit as well. In their desire to get a full calendar, will Liberty accept these offers? Say a season that starts and ends at Abu Dhabi, and visits Bahrain, Sochi, Moscow, etc.

      Another question (once that might provoke the ire of some people here) – there seems to be a suspicion that a smoking habit that affects lung function increases the severity/mortality of the coronavirus. Will teams taking tobacco money take a stance regarding this for the future, especially given the press statements made in recent weeks about safeguarding the health of teams and fans from the virus?

      1. countries in the Middle East might be willing to host more than one GP in the same country, likewise Russia might be keen to put up a Potemkin facade not just at Sochi, but maybe another street circuit as well.

        The historical low oil prices (a bit of artistic licence there) will not help those hosts, and it being an American election year, Russia will probably spend its money on Facebook/Instagram/WhatsApp ‘influencers’.
        @phylyp

        1. @coldfly – heh, I lost sight of that bit of news. Saudi still continuing their shenanigans to make the bottom drop out of the oil market? LOL at the Russia quip, although I think our American friends have done a stellar job of sustaining and nurturing their sectarian divide since the last time around.

          1. @phylyp whilst they have indicated they will start increasing capacity, it seems that, so far, the Saudi Arabians haven’t actually changed their output yet.

            It looks like it’s far more to do with the rapid decline in demand as travel restrictions are imposed – for example, the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) believes demand for refined oil products (petrol, diesel etc.) is going to be down about 36% in China this quarter, and their overall sales are down 45%. As a result, their exports are up over 30% because, with fuel demand falling rapidly in their domestic market, they have a glut of fuel they are trying to get rid of.

          2. anon – good point that the widening restrictions on movement are themselves going to cause a surplus of fuel.

  2. ”Middle Eastern, Australian and Brazilian rounds, four total”
    – Singapore, Mexico, and Vietnam as well. Mexico City’s temps stay relatively stable throughout the year, so even in mid-winter, daytime temps are in the 20s for the most part. For Singapore, on the other hand, the Northern Hemisphere winter-months are the wettest ones, so there’d be that downside, but the temps are more or less the same all-year-round.

  3. Well, if the season could indeed start in Canada, just following the already existing calendar would produce 14 races, which would not be so bad for a respectable season. Plus, one or two races (China & Vietnam, perhaps) could be held during the planned August break. But should this year become even more disrupted and say no more than ten races could be reasonably held, maybe they should be non-Championship events with the focus placed on World Championship returning in 2021. But, will all the existing teams survive this and the inevitable global economic downturn? Will Monza survive?

    1. @gpfacts Both of them couldn’t take place within the original summer-break phase due to the surrounding European races on their existing slots. I can’t see both of them happening this year, only one of them realistically, although the distance to Europe as well as the temporary-infrastructures in the case of Vietnam will make it next to impossible to reschedule them. Bahrain has a greater chance of surviving for this year out of the non-European casualties. There’d only really be room for NL and Spain within the original summer-break phase, not for a solidary (nor more) flyaway.

      1. China will certianly not get into the summer break @gpfacts. As @jerejj mentions, the logistics of it would make it too little to gain from too much effort (even if the races ahead of it are eventually “postponed” too). Bahrain is more likely to get crammed somewhere in between towards the end of the season, probably right ahead of Abu Dhabi (since no one cares about visiting fans and crowd sizes anyway).

        In case we get this somehow under control, we might get the dutch race in the august period – I think Catelonia/BArcelona track was already struggling to get the money together, and they will be even worse off for cashflow after this, so doubt it will go ahead.

        On the other hand, I am not too sure the Austin GP will actually go ahead when we are looking at rising numbers in the USA either, so maybe that opens up a gap for other races?

        1. @bascb The US GP isn’t due till October 25, so plenty of time left till that, hence, I wouldn’t worry for the US GP at this point.

          1. Well, I guess we all hope it’ll be ok by then @jerejj

        2. @bascb @jerejj Agreed, those were just two names that popped in my head as I was typing…surely Dutch and/or Bahrain would be more feasible options.

  4. I think it shows a great degree of selfishness on the part of the sports CEO’s, shareholders, and some fans alike, that they’re only concerned with getting the F1 season going. To hell with public health and safety, amirite guys? -_-

    Cancelling the whole season, and just focusing on 2021 instead, could well end up being the most responsible thing to do. Yes, I know it will cause massive economic disruption – but human health and lives is FAR more important than money. And F1 is a big enough brand, that it will survive missing a year. Sure, there may be some changes…but it will survive nonetheless.

    1. It is selfish and irresponsible only if they start moving ahead with racing when we don’t have the pandemic well under control. As of now, they haven’t actually moved ahead with any racing, all they’ve done is express intent and tentative dates.

      Once you read beyond the headlines, you’ll see:
      – Zak said “There are plans in place to start up in summertime if the world allows us to and still get in quite a bit of the racing season. So hopefully that will happen.”
      – Chase said: “It is not possible to provide a more specific calendar now due to the fluidity of the current situation,” he said, “but we expect to gain clearer insights to the situation in each of our host countries, as well as the issues related to travel to these countries, in the coming month.”

      I won’t blame them for setting a rough goal of when and how to get restarted, and keep moving those goalposts if the situation continues to degrade, or shows so sign of improving. You gotta start somewhere, and resuming the 2020 season is as good an aspirational starting point as binning 2020 and aiming for 2021.

      I will hope that alongside their positive public pronouncements they are also looking at worst-case scenarios (e.g. non-essential gatherings/travel halted for 8 months) and having plans for such cases as well. I hope they’ve learnt that lesson from the debacle of the Aus GP cancellation, and their response in cancelling other GPs thus far shows that at least some of those lessons have been internalized.

  5. In Europe, where races are held in (relative) close proximity, fans attend a number of events spread across a season, but are unlikely to attend two neighbouring events in the same month.

    Quite the contrary for me; it would be exciting if I could do Spa & Zandvoort during an extended week in the ‘Low Countries’.

    1. @coldfly Finally, I’ve found someone else who gets it. This is what I’ve been arguing the whole time regarding this questionable theory when it comes to scheduling geographically close races on consecutive weekends. Another example: Having Bahrain and Abu Dhabi on subsequent weekends (which could happen this year) would give people more reason to attend both. Especially for those coming from further away, as they wouldn’t have to travel to the same region twice separately within the same year, thus, a win-win for both venues.

      1. Imo the core issue is missing in these discussions: until there’s a cure and/or a vaccine, will any country be willing to receive an international crowd of fans and have 10000s of people crowded together? If not, will any organiser be willing to host a race without spectators, and will their country allow a 1000 or so F1 personnel to enter? If the answers are “no” and “only a few”, as I suspect, then 2021 will not get to the 8 races needed to have a world championship either, and Liberty and FIA would do best to change the rules to make ad hoc F1 races more feasible.

        1. Sorry I don’t know why that ended up here; I reposted it as a separate comment.

        2. @krommenaas Well, Bahrain and Abu Dhabi would be able to survive a race with empty grandstands, unlike many other places.

  6. Maybe it could become a 20-21 championship: the “2020 season” would end when the last postponed 2020 GP takes place in 2021. The “2021 season” starts on the first GP that could get on in 2020.
    The adjustments could be done in the following years rearranging 3-4 races per years.
    Those are exceptional times. And such a solution does not seem too extraordinary.

  7. I’m expecting we’ll have only one season with 20-23 races, but spread over two years.

    1. @paeschli I gather there is little appetite for doing that due to the belief that running some races twice in a season could skew the outcome of the championship in some way due to having full/representative data with current cars/tires.

      Additionally Mclaren would be switching engine supplier mid-year which would also have a potentially big impact on the championship if that changes there competitiveness in a significant way.

      1. Additionally Mclaren would be switching engine supplier mid-year which would also have a potentially big impact on the championship if that changes there competitiveness in a significant way.

        You are starting a good point, @gt-racer, even though it is probably not the one you elaborated on.
        If the competitiveness of a car changes then that is a normal part of car development. We already see new aero parts and PU throughout a single season, or even different drivers.
        But officially an entry for the WCC is a Chassis-PU combination. Thus if they merge the seasons then McLaren will have 2 separate entries. They might be ‘racing’ themselves for a spot in the final standing ;)

  8. None of us have yet grasped the fact that from the “butterfly effect” of one woman in an outdoor, probably illegal, even by China’s pitiful hygiene standards, catching a cross-species virus which is now engulfing the world ALL our parameters of behaviour have to change.

    The human race has endured many pandemics, the one in 14th century Europe killed 200 million, but the species survived.

    Frankly it is pointless to speculate on when and where this or that sporting contest will take place. Nobody knows!

    First World countries will survive and recover from this pandemic with relatively low death rates. Frankly without major wars and disease it will do little harm to kill off a lot of the weak and elderly.

    However, Coronavirus has yet to really hit Africa, India, The Middle East (Iran excluded) and South America. This is where death tolls are likely to reach staggering proportions as they have no coordinated health care, many families still live in a basically tribal existence or are forced to co-exist in slums.

    This is where revolution ferments, when the struggling workers see the rich overclass carry on as if nothing has happened.

    I fear for the future and whether it contains F1 I’m not sure I care any more.

    1. @cnitallb4 Why do you bother reading racefans.net then?

      1. Graham Warley
        31st March 2020, 15:41

        I not only read but subscribe. I just think it is a question of priorities. The lives of my children and grandchildren now and ongoing mean a hell of a lot more than any sport, F1 included.

        Incidentally, as the drivers will not be racing for an as yet unknown number of events I wonder if any of them would like to donate a portion of their incredible salaries to charity?

  9. The main reason a “super 2020-21” championship cannot be held is that although the 2021 regulations moved to 2022, all the other financial contracts between teams, drivers, suppliers, races and so on, end by 31 December 2020. And i don’t think every single party would agree on “ok let’s pretend that all the contracts that ended by December 31 2020 still apply for 2021”.

    > Some teams might fold under financial difficulties (Williams, Haas, etc).
    > McLaren will change engines in 2021…i don’t see them racing 4-5 races in 2020 with Renault and hafway change to Mercedes.
    > Only 6 drivers have contracts for 2021, 14 don’t, some might be left out of their teams or even retire (Raikkonen, Vettel).
    > 5 races are out of contract (China, Spain, Monaco, Austria, Brazil) and the 4 of them will probably sign a new one, but what happens with Spain for example, when in 2020 they barely made it to the final draft, raised the money and they had to postpone (eventualy cancel) their race?

    Either we’ll have a shorten 2020 season at best starting hopefully around the summer and stage as many GP as we can, OR if things don’t get better over the comming months more GPs will postpone/cancel gradualy (not all at once like many suggested) until we run out of races and have to start in 2021.

    1. @black – nice points, in particular:

      > McLaren will change engines in 2021…i don’t see them racing 4-5 races in 2020 with Renault and hafway change to Mercedes.
      > 5 races are out of contract (China, Spain, Monaco, Austria, Brazil) and the 4 of them will probably sign a new one, but what happens with Spain for example, when in 2020 they barely made it to the final draft, raised the money and they had to postpone (eventualy cancel) their race?

  10. Imo the core issue is missing in these discussions: until there’s a cure and/or a vaccine, will any country be willing to receive an international crowd of fans and have 10000s of people crowded together? If not, will any organiser be willing to host a race without spectators, and will their country allow a 1000 or so F1 personnel to enter? If the answers are “no” and “only a few”, as I suspect, then 2021 will not get to the 8 races needed to have a world championship either, and Liberty and FIA would do best to change the rules to make ad hoc F1 races more feasible.

    1. Also many races are subsidised by governments. How many will be keen to prioritise spending millions on hosting a race above public health improvements? Its going to take a long time for the world to get over this and F1 is going to have to wait.

    2. Nah. In two or three months it’ll either disappear forever like SARS or the disease somehow comes back in triumph after the lockdowns. In that case governments will cave in due to economic and societal pressure, everything goes back to normal, millions die like in 2018 and it’s all over by the holidays.

      1. *1918, I mean. No edit button :(

  11. I think after all is said, everyone will come to an agreement that this situation has affected every facet of society,socially,economically, politically and financially. So I think when renegotiation discussions begin, all concerned will need to take into account that this is an abnormal occurrence/ pandemic that is unprecedented by the sheer size of havoc it has caused. Sense will need to prevail, not just for liberty,but all the stakeholders concerned, including us fans and let the greater good prevail, not our own selfish interest.

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