For many years now, the metaphorical glass ceiling that seems to hold midfield teams from realising their dreams of becoming title contenders has felt more like a ceiling made of reinforced concrete.
Over the ten Formula 1 seasons between 2002 and 2011, seven different teams managed to secure a top three finish in the constructors’ championship on at least one occasion: Ferrari, Williams, McLaren, BAR/Brawn, Renault, BMW-Sauber and Red Bull.But in the last ten seasons prior to 2022, only five teams have occupied the top three positions: Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren and Williams.
As time had ticked ever onwards, it seems it’s become increasingly more challenging for Formula 1 teams to bridge that gap from the middle of the pack to the front of the field, with Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari holding an almost iron-grip over the top three positions.
However, two of the ‘big three’s rivals further down the field are looking to finally break through and show the world that they have the ambition, the resources and the talent to not just establish themselves as contenders for race wins, but fight for the world championship too. And both have set a target of five years in which to do so.
Alpine already have championship winning pedigree in their DNA from their previous lives as Benetton in the 1990s and then Renault in the early years of the new millennium. But when Renault rebranded their F1 outfit as Alpine, the brand’s CEO Laurent Rossi explained that the Alpine were committed long-term to the sport, describing their mission as a “100-race project”. At a rate of just over 20 races a season, the deadline for Alpine to become bona fide title contenders its at just before the end of the 2025 campaign.
With such high expectations from the teams themselves and both having set a similar deadline for success, it’s fair to look at both Alpine and Aston Martin’s efforts over year one and judge which, either, may be on a realistic path towards a championship title over the next four seasons.
As Max Verstappen’s championship last season demonstrated, Red Bull value the drivers’ title more than the constructors’ championship. With the prestige afforded to the drivers’ world champion, it’s likely that it remains the main aim for most, if not all, teams on the grid. Therefore, the question benchmark for success to be measured in this exercise is whether either of these two teams will deliver a drivers’ championship by the end of 2025.
Alpine
Out of the two teams, Alpine enjoyed the more encouraging first year of their five year plan. Esteban Ocon made the most of his first opportunity to fight for victory in the rain-affected Hungarian Grand Prix and held of Aston Martin’s Sebastian Vettel to claim an impressive and unexpected win.
While Alpine have been far more muted about how they intend to move up the grid in coming seasons than Aston Martin, the fact that Fernando Alonso was more than willing to commit to 2022 and beyond should not be taken lightly. After all, the only reason Alonso came out of retirement was to chase that elusive third world title with the opportunities offered by the major rules changes of 2022.
Alpine are the only team running the Renault power unit, which may have been seen as an advantage, were it not for how many customer teams they lost over recent seasons due to concerns about them underperforming compared to their rivals. With an engine freeze taking effect from this season, it could become a concern for Alpine themselves.
Entering the 2022 season and the wealth of opportunities it promises, Alpine have bolstered their technical ranks with a restructuring. Former Ferrari and McLaren designer Pat Fry has been appointed chief technical officer, while engineering director Matt Harman has been promoted to technical director. While neither move will make any immediate impact on their 2022 campaign, it’s a action taken with the years ahead firmly in mind.
Aston Martin
Coming into 2021 with the momentum from their best ever season since their Jordan days, Aston Martin were hoping for more of the same and were disappointed to fall down to seventh in the constructors’ championship.
However, 2022 was always the focus from the moment the Stroll-led takeover was first announced and Aston Martin certainly demonstrated their intent by being the first of the ten teams not only to show off their actual 2022 car to the world, but run a shake down with it the following day.
Even if 2022 is another year spent in the pack, the most important developments are taking place off the track, with a huge “state-of-the-art” factory expansion due for completion in early 2023. With a new wind tunnel and a new simulator, Lawrence Stroll has stressed how the expensive new F1 facility will be “the only one currently fit-for-purpose with the financial regulations taken into consideration.”
With the expertise of four-time champion Sebastian Vettel guiding them, the team have also made major hires to their off-track staff. Martin Whitmarsh has been brought in as CEO of Aston Martin Performance Technologies, with former Red Bull aero head Dan Fallows joining at technical director in April. And to lead them all, former BMW motorsport head Mike Krack has been brought in as team principal.
I say
It would be certainly welcome to see either or indeed both of these formidable teams take advantage of the new regulations and financial rules aimed to promote greater parity in the sport and join the ranks as genuine race winning contenders over the coming seasons.
With Formula 1 being dominated by Mercedes for so long and only Red Bull and Ferrari ever being able to offer a challenge, more competition is always welcome in the sport. However, whether a reduced budget cap and radically different cars for the new season can be enough of a shake up to allow teams like Alpine and Aston Martin to cut the gap to the larger teams is a difficult question as recent rules changes in 2014 and 2017 appeared to have only increased the stranglehold of the big teams over the top positions, with the field only getting closer in recent years as regulations remained largely untouched.
Alpine certainly have the pedigree and the Enstone outfit’s ability to succeed in multiple eras means that it’s hard to count them out as a threat with so many unknowns heading into this bold new direction for the sport. The power unit freeze may be a concern, but the team showed last season they have the driver line up to make the most of any opportunities that come their way and will likely be eager to show what they can do with the all new cars for 2022.
But out of all the midfield runners, Aston Martin appear to have the greatest potential for growth with such major investment from its benefactors. While the impact of the team’s new facility and technical prowess will not be fully felt until after the 2022 campaign, Aston Martin are being given the best chance of being able to evolve into a more powerful force on the grid over the years ahead.
Will they take a title by the end of 2025? It’s hard to bet against Formula 1’s well established powerhouses, but compared to the last two decades, there’s as good a chance of it happening over the next few years than at any other point in the 21st century thus far.
You say
Will Alpine or Aston Martin succeed in winning the F1 drivers' world championship by the end of the 2025 season?
- Both Alpine and Aston Martin will win at least one championship by the end of 2025 (2%)
- Aston Martin will win a championship by the end of 2025 - Alpine will not (10%)
- Alpine will win a championship by the end of 2025 - Aston Martin will not (12%)
- Neither Alpine nor Aston Martin will win a championship by the end of 2025 (76%)
Total Voters: 165
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BasCB (@bascb)
13th February 2022, 14:28
I just don’t see it happening for either (but then, I am not sure I expected Mercedes to get on this 8 year run of dominance at the top either). Alpine seems to be still stuck into reorganising while trying to find a sweet spot of how to operate, they might have “Le Plan” but so far I really don’t see any clear plan towards a goal. But they probably have the drivers and possibly the technical staff to do so.
Aston Martin clearly has the intent to do it. And Stroll seems to be working towards that goal with the investments etc. I think realising it was not easy to build further upon the “buy in” of know how from Mercedes they did in 2020 might have been a bit of a tough one for them, but so far the reaction seems to go in the right direction (invest, build that capacity). But then, if you really want to do that, why on earth would you keep Lance in one of the cars instead of getting a guy like Bottas (could have kept Perez, really), or a top talent to be paired with Vettel (if you believe Vettel can get back to that level). I rather expect either trouble with the AM company not achieving to ruin the plans or alternatively the stockholders of a resurgent AM (if they do achieve car sales) to start questioning their F1 program with Strolls son instead of a professional line up before they ever hit a run of consistently winning, let alone a championship campaign.
MacLeod (@macleod)
14th February 2022, 7:46
I agree with you Alpine is still building their organisation and AM just started (if Keith said 10 years i would say AM could get it) Also the drivers are important Alpine has the beter driver pair and could deliver if the car can deliver but Astin has allways a weakness in Stroll.
SjaakFoo (@sjaakfoo)
13th February 2022, 14:45
This is like the third consecutive five-year-plan for Alpine.
Stroll is clearly investing a lot of money into developing the team, that’s all that ultimately matters. Money gets you to the top more often than any five-year-plan ever did.
frood19 (@frood19)
14th February 2022, 8:47
Speaking of money, how are these teams able to invest 9-figure sums and stay within the cost cap? Are they underspending by that much in the day to day running of the team? Feels unlikely.
SjaakFoo (@sjaakfoo)
14th February 2022, 9:46
Because building a factory isn’t part of the cost cap of year-to-year car building and running a race team. I mean, if it was, one wind tunnel would mean a team couldn’t build a car for like 10 seasons because they’re out of budget.
frood19 (@frood19)
14th February 2022, 16:26
@sjaakfoo so is that kind of thing explicitly excluded from the cap? I struggle to understand how this levels the playing field i.e if a rich team can build a new wind tunnel, while paupers cannot.
someone or something
13th February 2022, 15:30
I sleep easy knowing that Team Stroll are perpetually sabotaging themselves with their driver choice.
RandomMallard
13th February 2022, 15:34
I think both have the potential, but some changes will need to be made for both of them. I think Aston Martin could be in a good place: Mercedes engines, a new factory coming soon, and plenty of money in the bank. Alpine meanwhile have the backing of one of the largest car manufacturers in the world, and good facilities both in the UK and France.
However, I think if either team is going to win a championship, I think they need to refresh their driver line ups. As much as I love both of them, I think both Vettel and especially Alonso are past the point they can realistically be fighting for championships. Still extremely good drivers no doubt, but I think they are just a bit too old for it now (Vettel is probably in a more realistic position age-wise to fight for it than Alonso though). And with Ocon and Stroll, I think both are good drivers (I honestly don’t mind Stroll very much at all, he’s at least got a fair amount of talent), but neither are consistent enough yet to fight fully for a title. Both have shown they very much have potential, Baku 2017 and especially Turkey 2020 for Stroll, and Sakhir 2020 and Hungary 2021 for Ocon, but they can be quite hit and miss with their performances.
In terms of who could replace them, I think the options are more obvious at Alpine than Aston Martin right now. We’ve been hearing rumours for years of Gasly being linked with Alpine, so I wouldn’t be too surprised if that did materialise, especially if Marko wants to call time on his AT career with the number of drivers in the RB Junior Program at the moment, and of course they’ve got Piastri patiently waiting as well (I do hope he gets an F1 chance). It depends on how soon Alonso calls time on his F1 career I guess. At Aston, I think the picture is more complicated. I think Lance’s seat is fairly safe – dunno why though ;-) – but it depends how long they keep Vettel/Vettel stays on for. I don’t think Aston have a huge junior program at the minute, so I can’t think of anyone who would come through that, so it would most likely be an existing driver transferring to them. If the stars aligned in the right way (Ferrari wanting a seat for Schumacher), I could see Sainz moving there, or it could be another option for Gasly if he were to get kicked out of AT. But this is pure speculation, don’t read too much into it.
And this is all of course presuming neither of these teams has a Brawn moment and suddenly becomes the team to beat with the new regs.
Red Andy (@red-andy)
14th February 2022, 8:23
Vettel is younger than Hamilton, and few are doubting that he’ll be fighting for championships over the next couple of seasons at least. Granted, he has the car under him, but were the same to happen for Vettel I’m sure he would be capable of mounting a championship challenge.
Alonso is a different kettle of fish entirely – it’s a full decade since we last saw him in a competitive car so I’ve no idea how he would cope with one today. I suspect, though, that age would have dulled his edge somewhat.
Dex
13th February 2022, 16:28
I don’t get these plans. The regulations have changed completely, everything got pretty much randomized now. You can plan many things in F1, but I don’t see how you can make 5 year plans to win the championship. It’s more like a formal wish. You can plan to improve the facilities, bring some new members to the team (drivers, engineers, mechanics…), new sponsorships, logistics… I don’t see how Renault (whatever the name) could do much in the past few years to make a championship winning car in 2022., except for the engine since they make their own. Doesn’t matter, their plans never fail anyway. They just get postponed year after year, after eventually it happens; thanks to great planning and fantastic management no doubt. :))
Aapje (@aapje)
13th February 2022, 17:18
@Dex
It’s possible to make a plan to produce the preconditions for a championship run, or at least, the preconditions that are under one’s control. However, there are quite a few preconditions that one cannot control, so one can rarely guarantee a championship, unless the competition gives up.
Aapje (@aapje)
13th February 2022, 17:43
Spending enough money is merely one requirement, but key to have management and an organizational culture that do the right things. Not in the least because the most competent people will flee a culture where this is not sorted and if they don’t flee, won’t perform well.
I believe that this is where Ferrari has been faltering. They have the money, but there is something fundamentally wrong with the organization (just like there was in the past, which a German, Schumacher, managed to temporarily change enough for them to become a winning team).
I think that Alpine/Renault also lacks this quality, which is most exemplified by their inability to make progress with the engine, but also with how quickly Ricciardo bailed. He saw that they were missing necessary qualities, so they can’t make good on their plans (just like they kept disappointing Red Bull by promising engine improvements that didn’t materialize).
I get the impression that Aston is run by incompetents, who believe that the results of copying a winning car gives an accurate picture of the quality of the design team, where they won’t severely regress as soon as they actually have to come up with their own designs. And that a championship winner who has very limited range and lucked out immensely by getting a car that played to his strengths and weaknesses, is a strong bet for future cars that probably won’t suit him as well. And who delude themselves about the qualities of the boss’s kid.
I think that McLaren has a better shot at getting a championship than these two teams, because their culture and management seem good enough for it.
Ciaran (@ciaran)
13th February 2022, 17:49
Renault/Alpine/Enstone GP have always suffered from poor management, and nothing over the winter break has assured me that anything has changed. The driver lineup is good, but their engine has consistently been sub-par, and their facilities haven’t seen the necessary investment.
Aston Martin’s plan may fall apart, but it’s certainly ambitious. I approve with their recent hires, the huge investment into new facilities, and while Lawrence Stroll gives off an odd impression sometimes, I don’t doubt that he’s a strong leader who cares about the project. Though by 2024-2025 I suspect Vettel will be shown the door, and a young superstar will take up the mantle of fighting for a championship, if the opportunity comes.
Jere (@jerejj)
13th February 2022, 18:03
I eventually went for neither. I reckon Ferrari has a greater chance of achieving at least one WDC win in the next four seasons than the above duo. Additionally, Merc & RBR (& possibly also Ferrari) might still prove too competitive for outscoring over a season even with the budget cap having a more meaningful impact than now. Time will tell, though.
Electroball76
13th February 2022, 18:07
Aston certainly seem driven to invest in success. But as a customer team will they always be doomed to fighting for “2nd best Mercedes” status? Alpine are keen to try something different (like the curvy car last year) and could catch a lucky break that way. But both have to defeat Merc, Red Bull, Ferrari.. The more the technical rules get locked in, the less likely seems an upset.
Rob (@)
13th February 2022, 18:09
Nobody’s winning anything but Mercedes lol (crofty will spin these victories as somehow impressive for hamilton and george)
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
14th February 2022, 1:30
Hopefully not just mercedes, they had the best car for the last 8 years, sometimes by more, sometimes less margin, except 2018 where they were evenly matched with ferrari (imo ofc), so they never had the 2nd best car in any of the 8 years, hoping for a competitive season with at least red bull and maybe ferrari and mclaren in the mix, and maybe for once mercedes not the car to beat.
But I think it’s even less likely for alpine or aston to be in the mix.
Sensord4notbeingafanboi (@peartree)
13th February 2022, 18:24
Does Mercedes winning count as AMR? If so yes but Alpine won’t win unless the 2 top teams leave f1.
Niki101
13th February 2022, 18:53
“As Max Verstappen’s championship last season demonstrated, Red Bull value the drivers’ title more than the constructors’ championship.”
Hmmm, rather odd way of saying Mercedes prioritized sabotaging Red Bull’s constructers title run…….
But apart from that, besides the Silverstone trade off between 8th place and denying Lewis the fastest lap, a decision I believe made more out of spite than from rationale, I can’t remember any particular race where Red Bull traded WCC points for WDC points.
Tommy C (@tommy-c)
13th February 2022, 19:01
So hard to know. I certainly didn’t expect McLaren to go nearly a decade without a win nor Ferrari to have such a long run without a championship so who knows. I guess we’ll have a clearer picture in just a few weeks!
SadgeHands (@sirmito)
13th February 2022, 19:51
Unless Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull somehow cease to exist, then I don’t see it.
Johan
13th February 2022, 20:20
I also don’t see any of them winning a championship in the next few years. It would make more sense to me if Ferrari and McLaren close the gap to Mercedes and Red Bull rather than Alpine or Aston Martin joining even Ferrari and McLaren.
It just doesn’t seem that there’s a culture of continuous innovation at either Alpine or Aston Martin. Lawrence ordered the design team to copy Mercedes against the design teams will. That’s a strong leader doing something that pushes the boundaries of what’s acceptable in order to quickly close the gap to the front, and it worked. But when you copy a design you don’t learn why something is the way it is because you don’t go through all the design iterations that went before, or truly understand the compromises that was made with the current design. And if that’s the culture then you also forever doomed the team to play second fiddle to whomever you’re copying. It would also be easy to see Mercedes getting fed up with this and withdraw more and more components from the agreement forcing Aston Martin to develop more and more of their car and having to relearn fundamentals rather than pushing forward.
With Alpine, they appear to have more of an innovation culture and if they get it right would have a better chance. But it just don’t seem consistent enough. Ferrari made clear gains with their engine pushing past McLaren last year and Alpine would need to do the same. Ferrari also had that illegal situation a few years ago when they had the strongest engine on the field which points to that they are clearly pushing development and that just doesn’t seem to be the case with Alpine.
And then there’s the drivers. In all the teams ahead Mercedes, Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari there’s drivers that can out-drive the car and push each of those cars further up than they should be on pure performance. The only driver in a car behind that can do that appears to be Gasly. Alonso and Vettel both signed for their championship knowledge but it’s hard to see either of them winning another one. That means that either there needs to be an up and coming star or they need to lure drivers from the teams ahead. And the drivers in the teams ahead all want a chance of winning the championship so Alpine and Aston Martin would need to put in years of great cars to sign any of them. That leaves an up and coming star and the best way to secure an up and coming star would be to start a young driver program and foster your own drivers. But that’s not a 5 year plan, that’s a 15+ year plan. And again with Lawrence it doesn’t seem to be his style. He wants to cheat the system by hiring the best guy out there but when you get close to the pointy end those drivers are not motivated by money any more so his style doesn’t work. Can you imagine say Russel ditching Mercedes to take a chance on Aston Martin? There’s just no way he would do that. Maybe if things implode at say Ferrari. If they get close to winning both of those drivers could start running into each other (Hamilton/Rosberg, Verstappen/Ricciardo, Vettel/Webber, …) and if the team favours one driver the other could leave. But from Alpine/Aston Martin that’s not a strategy you can bank on.
So no, I just don’t see it happening.
Neil (@neilosjames)
13th February 2022, 20:45
Probably neither, but I gave Alpine a vote as the Renault ‘family’ has at least had some recent success, they have better drivers (and probably, more ability to attract drivers) and they’re a works team.
Only Facts!
13th February 2022, 21:06
Aston seems to have made the right choices when it comes to personal and assets.
Alpine seems to have made the right choices when it comes to drivers.
A good car and an average driver, or a good pair of drivers and an average car. Though…
If Stroll put his business in front of personal preferences, and goes for the kill to get a top-notch driver, then Aston is favorite. McLaren and Ferrari seemed to believe he’s going that way, and locked their star drivers until 2025.
So, Stroll and Alpine will fight for every piece of Gasly next year. Both of them will need to replace their world champion again driver in a couple of years. Better move now.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
14th February 2022, 1:26
To me aston despite the huge investments not only lacks the drivers, but the car too, and I’d be very surprised if they ever managed to make the fastest car in a given year, and even if that happens they could still lose the title through driver line up.
Alpine pretty much is as untrustable as it gets when it comes to producing a good car, alonso is good but on paper should really start to decline soon, ocon is perez-like, so even if they made a great car they’d only have a driver potentially able to fight for title, so I obviously voted neither of the 2 teams will win a title by then, which atm stands at 3\4 of the voters, with aston martin slightly preferred over alpine and 0% who think both will win a title.
DB-C90 (@dbradock)
14th February 2022, 2:12
Alpine seem to have made an art form of not being 100% financially committed to getting back to the top so I dont see them returning to the top any time soon.
Aston certainly seem to have the financial side sorted, but it’ll take longer than the next 3 years to get to the top unless the current big teams all have a major disaster in the same season.
Of the two, I suspect Aston has the better potential.
Jay Menon (@jaymenon10)
14th February 2022, 4:00
Alpine seems to be in disarray, but then again, this has been their modus operandi since Renault took over.
Aston on the other hand appear to be forming a more solid organisational structure (although I have my reservations about Martin Whitmarsh). Lawrence Stroll’s aggression may rile a few up, if we are to believe the rumours, many at Team Silverstone are pining for the Mallaya days. Perhaps this is what is needed to shake the team up and take them to the next level.
Aston’s biggest weakness, for me anyways, are its drivers. Lance is capable midfield driver who may net a good result on occasion, while Seb is, sad to say this, is past it. He has been past it since about 2018 I think, he just doesnt seem to care anymore. All he is doing right now is lending credibility to the venture, should the car be handy, he certainly isnt going to be fighting for wins on podiums on a regular basis if his current form continues.
Alpine on the other hand have a strong driver partnership. I’ve had my reservations about Ocon in the past, but credit where its due, he’s held his own against Alonso, and appears to have matured as a racer in the past couple years. Alonso will continue to maximise every weekend as he usually does, but I fear that they will find the max potential of the car very early on.
Should Aston prove to be competitive, they may have a better chance at fighting at the front should Alonso move to them in 2023….which rumour has it, isn’t of the cards, as Seb is expected to walk at the end of this year.
Robert
14th February 2022, 5:30
You missed “either Alpine or AMR will win a championship by 1025”
HK (@me4me)
14th February 2022, 5:52
In a few weeks we know more. Both teams need a good start to the new regulations. Judging either team on 2021 seems irrelevant by now, we know both teams hit trouble. AM with the downforce cut and Alpine running old hardware.
ruliemaulana (@ruliemaulana)
14th February 2022, 7:42
If this was not an cost cap and freeze ICE era, I’ll go with Alpine. But it wasn’t. So I believe all new talents and facilities of Aston Martin had a better chance than Alpine.
drmouse (@drmouse)
14th February 2022, 10:41
I think both have a chance, but I wouldn’t put significant money on either. There are far too many variables, especially when we haven’t seen how the cars behave with the new regs. There is a reasonable chance that one of those 2 may be fighting for the top spot this year if they have managed to do a good enough job with their car, but there is also a reasonable chance that one or both have gone down a dead end with their development and will have an undriveable car.
Michael A.
14th February 2022, 11:31
I am not a Hamilton supporter.
However, I have a strange feeling that Hamilton is about to embark on a further five WDCs. I do feel for his team mate, George Russell who may be allowed just a sprinkling of Grand Prix wins.
So, my thoughts on Alpine and Aston-Martin winning championships in the next five years are about nil – but I hope I am wrong!