[paulgilb]

Something I have been investigating for a while is which driver would be champion in each season if a system similar to Alternative Voting (a.k.a. Instant-Runoff Voting) is used. The way it works is that each race represents a ‘vote’, ranking drivers in order (only counting classified drivers). If one driver has more than 50% of the votes (i.e. wins more than 50% of the races), that driver is champion. If not, the driver with fewest wins is eliminated, and his win(s) re-assigned to the next highest driver(s) (all drivers that did not win are completely ignored). This process is repeated until 1 driver remains, and that driver is then champion, or 2 drivers remain and they are tied (i.e. each finished ahead of the other the same number of times), in which case they share the title.

The process is explained at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting.

Example: in 2007 the following drivers won races:

Raikkonen – 6
Hamilton – 4
Alonso – 4
Massa – 3

With the fewest wins, Massa is eliminated. Hamilton takes 2 of his wins (Bahrain, Spain), with Raikkonen taking the other (Turkey):

Raikkonen – 7
Hamilton – 6
Alonso – 4

Alonso is now eliminated. Hamilton takes all 4 of his wins (he didn’t score in Europe, but this is irrelevant – only the fact that he was classified and Raikkonen wasn’t), thus giving:

Hamilton – 10
Raikkonen – 7

so Hamilton wins.

The main issue is how to deal with ties for last place. What is not an option is to eliminate all the last-place drivers simultaneously (to see this, compare 2007 with what would have happened if Massa hadn’t let Raikkonen through in Brazil). The only fair way is to pick a random driver to eliminate. What I have done is look at every possibility, and as a result for some seasons there are several different possible champions / champion pairs.

This system has the following properties/advantages/disadvantages:

1. A driver who wins more than 50% of the races is champion (not true in a points system).
2. A driver needs to win at least 1 race to be champion (not true in a points system).
3. It is a ‘natural’ system, unlike a points system which relies on an arbitrary allocation of points to positions.
4. Like all such systems, it only takes into account actual results achieved i.e. reasons for DNFs, car advantage are not accounted for.
5. It can only select a winner rather than rank all the drivers.
6. The main limitation of this (just like any ‘alternative’ championship) is that the results in some races (especially later ones in a season) could be affected by the actual championship situation, thus some race results would actually be different if the AV system was used.

For comparison, I have also included the winners under the ‘medals’ system (which was proposed for 2009 but rejected). This corresponds to ‘first past the post’ voting.

And the winners are:

Year – Champion – Medals Champion – AV Champion
1950 – G Farina – G Farina – G Farina
1951 – J M Fangio – J M Fangio – J M Fangio
1952 – A Ascari – A Ascari – A Ascari
1953 – A Ascari – A Ascari – A Ascari
1954 – J M Fangio – J M Fangio – J M Fangio
1955 – J M Fangio – J M Fangio – J M Fangio
1956 – J M Fangio – J M Fangio – J M Fangio
1957 – J M Fangio – J M Fangio – J M Fangio
1958 – M Hawthorn – S Moss – S Moss
1959 – J Brabham – J Brabham – J Brabham & T Brooks
1960 – J Brabham – J Brabham – J Brabham
1961 – P Hill – P Hill – P Hill / W von Trips
1962 – G Hill – G Hill – G Hill
1963 – J Clark – J Clark – J Clark
1964 – J Surtees – J Clark – J Clark & J Surtees / J Clark / G Hill / J Clark & G Hill
1965 – J Clark – J Clark – J Clark
1966 – J Brabham – J Brabham – J Brabham
1967 – D Hulme – J Clark – J Clark (& J Brabham)
1968 – G Hill – G Hill – J Stewart / G Hill
1969 – J Stewart – J Stewart – J Stewart
1970 – J Rindt – J Rindt – J Rindt / P Rodriguez
1971 – J Stewart – J Stewart – J Stewart
1972 – E Fittipaldi – E Fittipaldi – E Fittipaldi
1973 – J Stewart – J Stewart – J Stewart
1974 – E Fittipaldi – E Fittipaldi – E Fittipaldi / J Scheckter / R Peterson & N Lauda
1975 – N Lauda – N Lauda – N Lauda
1976 – J Hunt – J Hunt – J Hunt & N Lauda
1977 – N Lauda – M Andretti – M Andretti & N Lauda
1978 – M Andretti – M Andretti – C Reutemann
1979 – J Scheckter – A Jones – J Schecker / G Villeneuve / J Scheckter & G Villeneuve
1980 – A Jones – A Jones – A Jones
1981 – N Piquet – A Prost – N Piquet / C Reutemann / A Jones / J Laffite
1982 – K Rosberg – D Pironi – A Prost / N Lauda / J Watson / A Prost & J Watson / K Rosberg
1983 – N Piquet – A Prost – A Prost
1984 – N Lauda – A Prost – A Prost
1985 – A Prost – A Prost – A Prost
1986 – A Prost – N Mansell – N Mansell
1987 – N Piquet – N Mansell – N Piquet / N Mansell
1988 – A Senna – A Senna – A Senna
1989 – A Prost – A Senna – A Senna
1990 – A Senna – A Senna – A Senna
1991 – A Senna – A Senna – A Senna
1992 – N Mansell – N Mansell – N Mansell
1993 – A Prost – A Prost – A Prost
1994 – M Schumacher – M Schumacher – M Schumacher
1995 – M Schumacher – M Schumacher – M Schumacher
1996 – D Hill – D Hill – D Hill
1997 – J Villeneuve – J Villeneuve – J Villeneuve
1998 – M Hakkinen – M Hakkinen – M Hakkinen
1999 – M Hakkinen – M Hakkinen – M Hakkinen
2000 – M Schumacher – M Schumacher – M Schumacher
2001 – M Schumacher – M Schumacher – M Schumacher
2002 – M Schumacher – M Schumacher – M Schumacher
2003 – M Schumacher – M Schumacher – M Schumacher
2004 – M Schumacher – M Schumacher – M Schumacher
2005 – F Alonso – F Alonso – F Alonso
2006 – F Alonso – F Alonso – F Alonso
2007 – K Raikkonen – K Raikkonen – L Hamilton
2008 – L Hamilton – F Massa – F Massa
2009 – J Button – J Button – J Button
2010 – S Vettel – S Vettel – F Alonso
2011 – S Vettel – S Vettel – S Vettel
2012 – S Vettel – S Vettel – S Vettel
2013 – S Vettel – S Vettel – S Vettel
2014 – L Hamilton – L Hamilton – L Hamilton

NB: the slashes indicate alternative winners or pairs e.g. 1964 gives the following options depending on which order the various ties are broken:

1. Clark & Surtees share the title.
2. Clark wins outright.
3. Hill wins outright.
4. Clark & Hill share the title.

Apologies if this all makes little sense or you think it is a load of rubbish, but I think it is somewhat interesting.

[Iestyn Davies]

Very interesting. For the tiebreaker.. what about whoever wins under the most circumstances remaining clinches it?

From the thread title, I thought it was going to be using Proportional Representation :P

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