[Ben Needham]

A quick look over the candidates from my point of view (in order):

Nico Hulkenberg
I think Renault is his last shot, so he is totally reliant on them producing a front running car (or a bit of a fluke!). I think they’ll get there eventually, but does he have the nerve? He’s still yet to stand on the podium despite driving a Force India which occasionally managed it in the hands of his team-mate. I think he can manage it with a solid car and a couple of chances.

Whoever eventually replaces Kimi Raikkonen
This assumes that the Ferrari stays strong for a few seasons. Unfortunately I think that Romain Grosjean has missed the boat and the main candidates here are as follows; Sergio Perez, Daniel Ricciardo or Antonio Giovinazzi. Obviously Ricciardo would be replaced in a potentially race-winning car himself, likely by carlos Sainz, who I think could win.

Stoffel Vandoorne
Vandoorne (like Hulkenberg) relies on his car/engine improving drastically, but he also has the problem that when it does, he has Fernando Alonso in the other car (assuming he sticks around). While his reliability issues mean we can’t draw too many conclusions about his potential yet; it’s fair to say that Alonso has been far quicker in every competitive session so far. Is he as good as his reputation suggests?

The Rest
A variety of scenario’s exist (nobody saw Rosberg retiring…), but it’s fair to say that drivers like Ocon/Wehrlein/Magnussen(?)/others could bundle their way into a top seat.

If I had to bet on the next winner, I think I’d order my choices something like this:
1) Hulkenberg
2) Perez
3) Sainz
4) Wehrlein
5) Ocon
6) Giovinazzi
7) Vandoorne
8) Magnussen
9) Grosjean
10) Kvyat

[Girts]

I think this is a good time to resurrect this discussion (once again).

So who will be the next new F1 race winner – Pierre Gasly, Charles Leclerc or …?

[Isomeri]

I’m not saying that Lance Stroll is the most promising young driver on the grid, but he seems to have luck on his side. So my hot take is that once he finally joins Force India, there will be a race where the top teams fumble and Lance will be there to collect his first win in F1.

[Jeanrien]

Difficult to bet against Leclerc with his signing at Ferrari.

Stroll needs the tyre roulette which provided Makdonado’s win. He really need too many things to align to get a win before Leclerc (or Gasly).

Don’t think RedBull will provide a race winning car next year. Gasly might get a one shot at it at Monaco while Leclerc will have many more opportunities.

[Enigma]

It’s got to be Leclerc. Gasly is the only other driver I see winning a first race in 2019.

After that? Hulkenberg or Ocon.

[KaIIe]

Stroll at Baku next year.

[Enigma]

It’s no surprise Leclerc has won his first Grand Prix.

But who will be the next new winner?
Renault does not look like joining the top 3 teams at the front in 2020, so I’d have to say Albon. Red Bull will be in contention for several victories in the rest of the season, so he’s got to have a chance – even if noone really expects him to be beating Max.

I say he’ll win a race very late in the season.

[Jeanrien]

Nice that someone remembers to reactivate this thread as we get a new winner.
It feels a bit more tricky for the next one, Leclerc was quite the obvious one especially since the start of the season. It was more a matter of when than who.

For the next one, I will go with Russell.
Albon won’t have many realistic chances to win (Mexico, Singapore and Brazil for the stronger tracks for RedBull?) and Verstappen is not the kind to let it slip very often. RedBull will probably time the engine penalty accordingly to give Max the best possible shot at it and have Albon out of sync to maximize the team result.
If Russell continues his strong showing, he might end up at Mercedes in 2021 which might still be early enough to be the next winner. I don’t think Ferrari will change their drivers line up next year and not sure RedBull will be in contention very often, plus they will give priority to Max until Albon has proven himself.
That’s based on Mercedes continuing until then and keeping a strong showing.

[Jere]

Alexander Albon (if he gets to stay at RBR for next season.)
Daniil Kvyat if he were to take the above’s place for next season.
Carlos Sainz, Lando Norris, or Esteban Ocon in a bit longer-term future.

[Darth Maximus]

Alexander Albon

[Ben Needham]

@enigma – I always enjoy this discussion (and enjoy browsing my way up to see how wrong I was previously!).

I’m sure I’ll eat humble pie, but I don’t see Albon as a race winner this year. I think we’ll have to wait until next year at least to get another new winner. I think Ocon has the same air of inevitability about him as Verstappen or Leclerc does and he’ll surely win at some stage. The McLaren pair are also looking feisty if that car can close the gap in 2020/2021. George Russell as well, if he ends up near a Mercedes.

I’d say the next winner will come from Albon, Ocon, Norris, Sainz and Russell at this stage. I think the chance has gone for Perez, Hulkenberg, Grosjean or Magnussen… unless something crazy happens… which it surely will!

[Enigma]

Noone said Gasly! :)

Very tough to choose the 110th winner. I’ll say Sainz, even if that might be in 2022. Can’t think of anyone more likely to win by then than him. Stroll might have a chance, or perhaps whoever drives alongside Verstappen next year.

@ben-n Thanks – so do I!

This video sums up this topic quite nicely: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iY352dxpty8

[Ben Needham]

@enigma – pretty confident I’ve not been right at all on this thread; despite mentioning 9 names in my last post, none of them were Pierre Gasly!

So… Albon has easily the best car of the non-winners, so should be the logical choice. Unfortunately he doesn’t seem to be ‘sharp’ at the moment and has Verstappen well ahead of him, even if Mercedes falter. He’s probably followed by Sainz or Norris, depending on whether the Ferrari or McLaren becomes next in line in 2021/2022.

I’ll stick my neck out and go for Lando Norris.

[Jeanrien]

@enigma the funniest part is that Gasly was named a few time in the previous round (before Leclerc victory).
Quite tricky for the next one, I name Sainz as my first pick (don’t see Albon winning anytime soon), then Norris, and Russell in third.
Depends when Ferrari get it back, and how strong the McLaren is next year. I still think Russell has a shot at that Mercedes seat one day but he also worried me as he has had some blips in form when battling for points with occasional mistakes which show he is not immune to pressure…

[Lasse]

In my opinion, firstly, it depends on the power of the Mercedes car, and secondly, it may be someone who has not won before.

[Author]

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