Predict Melbourne grid
- 1st February 2014, 13:36 at 1:36 pm #248453Lucas WilsonParticipant
lol ;-)1st February 2014, 14:46 at 2:46 pm #248454Alex CrossParticipant
Hard to say. Williams think that they could get podiums this season, so I would expect to see them in the top ten come Melbourne, the same with Force India. McLaren and Mercedes will probably be the top two at the beginning of this season, with Ferrari close in third.
Jerez suggested that the Ferrari engines are next best after the Mercedes at the moment, so at the moment, Sauber and Marussia would come next. But I am sure that Renault will sort out any problems meaning that Marussia won’t be too out of place in comparison too last year, with Red Bull and Sauber probably competing to make the top ten (Red Bull will probably struggle in the beginning). Rant over:
1. Lewis Hamilton
2. Nico Rosberg
3. Jenson Button
4. Fernando Alonso
5. Felipe Massa
6. Kevin Magnussen
7. Kimi Raikkonen
8. Nico Hulkenberg
9. Sebastian Vettel
10. Valterri Bottas1st February 2014, 15:15 at 3:15 pm #248455Max JacobsonParticipant
Very tricky as there is little basis, but I’ll give it a shot ;)
1 – Magnussen
2 – Hamilton
3 – Rosberg
4 – Button
5 – Vettel
6 – Alonso
7 – Ricciardo
8 – Räikkönen
9 – Grosjean
10 – Hülkenberg
11 – Massa
12 – Kvyat
13 – Perez
14 – Maldonado
15 – Bottas
16 – Sutil
17 – Vergne
18 – Kobayashi
19 – Gutierrez
20 – Bianchi
21 – Ericsson
22 – Chilton (his permanent spot)1st February 2014, 15:26 at 3:26 pm #248456JackySteegParticipant
I’m gonna guess:
22. Ericsson1st February 2014, 20:02 at 8:02 pm #248457OliParticipant
The rest: DNF. Hamilton DNF while in P2, Rosberg shortly after while in P2, Magnussen DNF in P2, Vettel DNF outside the top 10, Ricciardo DNF in P9.
2 Safety Cars, Wet/Dry change.
Behind Button and Alonso, everyone will be at least +1 Lap.
1 car will DNF on the formation lap.1st February 2014, 21:50 at 9:50 pm #248458KingsharkParticipant
That is one almighty race prediction! Although for whatever reason, I don’t see it as being impossible.
I have revised my grid so that it covers the full top 10.2nd February 2014, 2:17 at 2:17 am #248459Iestyn DaviesParticipant
I like it.. I think so far we have the Mercedes, Ferrari and Renault engines in this order in terms of reliability. If reliability is pace, then we also have the top teams (Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari) above 1000 kms, middle order (Williams, Sauber and Force India) around 750 kms, and lower order (Caterham, Toro Rosso, Marussia and Red Bull) roughly at 350 kms or less.
Red Bull is an outlier there, so adjusting for the Renault teams fixing their issues (of which Red Bull have the most) and Marussia getting some decent mileage on the board (along with Lotus) is the real unpredictable part of the grid at the moment. We can say they’d all triple their mileage if they could, giving us Mercedes with almost 4,000 kms at this point and the others with 2,000 (more for Ferrari, depending on Marussia doing more mileage). While Mercedes have the most teams here, it’s not enough to account for a doubling of test mileage, so we can assume Mercedes are stronger in terms of race reliability (thus making them current title favourites).
Drivers by km driven in Jerez:
Mercedes: Rosberg (832), Hamilton (535)
Ferrari: Alonso (766), Raikkonen (345)
McLaren: Magnussen (717), Button (367)
Williams: Massa (588), Bottas (185)
Sauber: Sutil (456), Gutierrez (265)
Force India: Juncadella (358), Perez (212), Hulkenberg (75) [You can tell who brings the cash in here]
Caterham: Kobayashi (239), Ericsson (53), Frijns (44)
Toro Rosso: Vergne (199), Kvyat (39)
Marussia: Bianchi (110), Chilton (22)
Red Bull: Vettel (48), Ricciardo (44)
Generally the more experienced drivers are getting the mileage at this point, although McLaren are making sure Magnussen is as ready as can be for the season ahead. We’ll see how this changes in Bahrain.
Melbourne: I’ll be surprised if we don’t have a grid which looks like (Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull), (Lotus, Williams, Force India, Sauber), (Toro Rosso, Caterham, Marussia) roughly these three groups, who are also generally the big, medium and smaller spenders.2nd February 2014, 7:47 at 7:47 am #248460RigiParticipant
It’s quite funny how people still write off marussia and caterham, we don’t know if they’ll be at the back of the grid again this year. also, we know mercedes have sorted out their engine the fastest, but that doesn’t mean it will be the quickest of them all. if renault sort theirs out they might just be quicker than the mercedes. we don’t know that yet.
i’m not going to make any prediction until the end of fp3 in melbourne.2nd February 2014, 8:24 at 8:24 am #248461JackParticipant
10. Maldonado2nd February 2014, 9:45 at 9:45 am #248462minnisParticipant
22) Chilton2nd February 2014, 13:08 at 1:08 pm #248463PieLighterParticipant
@rigi You see these predictions about the Mercedes (and the Ferrari, to a lesser extent) engines because the Mercedes and Ferrari are the only engines that actually work. Renault seem to have made a big mess of things, and oddly Caterham has the most mileage among the Renault teams, with Red Bull having spluttered around Jerez a few times before giving up.
The interesting thing for me will be to see how far back Red Bull are due to this, especially if their KERS gremlins from last year return, as it will result in a huge loss of power. Superior aero won’t help them there.
I would agree with Mercedes and McLaren being on top, at least at the start. And if anyone can master the smooth delivery required by these high-torque engines, it will be the likes of Button, Alonso et al.2nd February 2014, 16:05 at 4:05 pm #248464Iestyn DaviesParticipant
The other factor is that we don’t know how many revs they were running. Mercedes and Ferrari only planned to use the full rev range on the last day, which then had some damp running. It could be that Mercedes ran a slightly higher rev range (sure of greater reliability so far) than Ferrari as rumoured at this point (from those at Jerez). Ferrari have also focussed on engine cooling, so they can run a tight body package without too many worries (a Red Bull-Ferrari at this point would likely be lethal). Renault could also be on speed once they strengthen their crankshaft.
The reason we write off Marussia and Caterham to some extent is simply because we know they spend less money on running their teams than the other midfield runners. If they can beat them then they have done a fantastic job (think Sauber contending for a race win). Caterham got close but then lost ground with the EBD (falling back like Williams did as well, as they couldn’t make it work), so focussed on 2014 early on (hence a novel nose package). Marussia’s car looks simple, but could still be effective. The big teams have gone down what looks like a ‘more advanced path’ with their noses (Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, Lotus with their novel solution), while the midfield ones look similar. But it seems like the noses are a sidetrack issue – the aerodynamic solutions may be towards the rear, hence Newey packaging the RB like a supermodel in tight jeans.2nd February 2014, 16:11 at 4:11 pm #248465andae23Participant
10. Vettel2nd February 2014, 18:27 at 6:27 pm #248466SaintsParticipant
10. Perez2nd February 2014, 18:55 at 6:55 pm #248467JakeParticipant
I’m surprised that the general consensus appears to be Ros > Ham and Mag > But. I think I will save my prediction until after the first Bahrain test.
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