Alonso-Mercedes duel and front-runners in midfield promises lively Canadian GP

A wet qualifying session in constantly changeable conditions is typically the catalyst for unexpected and unpredictable grids as smaller teams are offered rare giant-killing opportunities they could never usually hope to have.

So, naturally, what other front row combination could possibly have been produced from Saturday in Montreal than Max Verstappen on pole with Fernando Alonso lining up alongside him?

But while the very front of the grid is identical to what we had 12 months ago at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, the rest of the order sees all manner of cars out of position which could be the recipe for an enthralling an eventful 70 laps of racing.

While we will never know how the top ten would have panned out had Q3 not been interrupted by a red flag which effectively ended the session with seven minutes remaining, it’s unlikely that Verstappen would have been denied pole position. Not without a mistake or the track conditions favouring a rival at the exact right time, that is.

The championship leader looked quicker on Saturday in the damp than he had after Friday’s interrupted day of running in largely dry conditions. Then, the Red Bull had been bested on the times sheets by both Mercedes and Ferrari. Even on the long runs on medium tyres in the extended second practice, Verstappen’s pace was matched or even slightly beaten by Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari, who hailed his Friday as the team’s best of the season.

However, Verstappen is unlikely to be too worried heading into Sunday when the RB19 has consistently demonstrated its prowess on race days throughout the first seven rounds of the season so far.

“The long run still looked alright – we’re quite happy with that,” Verstappen said after qualifying on Saturday. “But they’re always things that you want to look at and improve and that’s what we did. Maybe the one-lap pace wasn’t fantastic. But that’s not what we are, of course, worried about tomorrow in the race.”

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Last year, Alonso could not beat Verstappen on the short, curved run down to the first corner where the pole-winner’s advantage is especially strong. If he somehow manages to do so this time around, it will be an extremely rare feat indeed. Of the 11 times that Verstappen has started from pole position with the fabled number ‘1’ on his car, he has only failed to lead the first lap once – in Melbourne earlier this year.

Regardless of if he does take the lead at the start or not, Alonso remains realistic – if optimistic – about his and Aston Martin’s hopes of challenging Verstappen for that coveted breakthrough victory.

“Let’s see in a dry race if we can challenge Max a little bit,” Alonso said. “I don’t think that we are at that level, that’s for sure, but in a state of being 20 seconds behind or 30 seconds behind, hopefully we are a little bit closer.”

The first corner could become a more intense flashpoint than typical at the start due to a potentially volatile combination of many drivers out of position on the grid and the newly extended barrier cutting drivers off from easily skipping turn two if they run wide at the first corner. The revised barrier has already caused headaches for drivers, many of whom ran off at turn one over the course of the first two days.

As the turn one left-hander immediately gives way to turn two’s right, anyone on the right side of the grid who doesn’t get to the inside line for turn one is at genuine risk of being run out and onto the run off on the outside. That could lead to some chaotic scenes at the start as drivers potentially have to rejoin the track perpendicular to oncoming traffic.

If there is conflict between Verstappen and Alonso at the start, then Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton and George Russell are poised to pick up the pieces having locked out the second row of the grid. After a strong showing in Spain, Mercedes are the only ‘top four’ team with both cars in strong starting positions and Russell is eager to take advantage.

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“The race pace looked really strong,” said Russell of their Friday performance. “Ferrari looked surprisingly competitive in their long-run pace – maybe question marks over their fuel load, but we were just a small step behind Verstappen, ahead of Alonso, ahead of Perez at least yesterday in FP2, so signs of promise going into the race tomorrow.”

While Mercedes are well-placed to take the fight to Alonso, Ferrari left themselves with a lot to do after qualifying. Carlos Sainz Jnr collected himself a grid penalty which leaves him 11th, promoting Leclerc to 10th, the other Ferrari driver infuriated by the team’s refusal to heed his call for slicks in Q2.

They aren’t the only front-runners who left themselves on the back foot by coming up short in the rain-hit qualifying session. The team mates of the two front row starters, Sergio Perez and Lance Stroll, start only 12th and 16th respectively, the latter having been penalised for impeding as Sainz was.

Fortunately for this quartet, this circuit is one where it is possible to make places. Last year, Leclerc started from 19th following a power unit penalty and rose up to fifth by the chequered flag, making 10 on-track passes for position as well as picking up places through the pits. The long back straight leading into the final chicane and the pit straight which follows it provides ample opportunity for slipstreaming and double the chance to use DRS.

The weather has played a starring role all weekend in Montreal, but while current reports do offer a potential risk of rain, it is much less than what teams faced heading into Friday and Saturday. The radar predicts a 20% chance of precipitation at some point during the two-hour window of the race, meaning it’s more likely than not that drivers will face a fully dry race, as teams have expected would be the case all weekend.

However, that does not mean drivers will have the luxury of a consistent track during the grand prix. Over the weekend so far, track temperatures have fluctuated wildly through sessions – from 30-37 degrees in first practice down to 27 degrees in the wet in second practice to as low as 17 degrees in qualifying. As the circuit warms or cools over the course of the race, that could have a direct impact on the performance of various teams through the 70 laps, with some teams, like Mercedes, struggling to generate tyre temperature more than their rivals.

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Pirelli expects that teams will have multiple options for strategy, between one- and two-stop races should it remain dry. However, Pirelli’s chief F1 engineer Simone Berra says the soft C5 compound is unlikely to feature much in the race.

“The C5 is quite weak, we can say, compared to the medium and hard,” Berra explained. “All the teams are thinking not to use the C5 for the race.”

Instead, the most likely choice is to start on the C4 medium tyre to provide early grip at the start before either pitting twice with stints on the hard and mediums or running a long second stint on hards to the finish. A deciding factor is likely to how soon the C4s succumb to graining, which was a problem for teams on Friday, and may return now yesterday’s heavy rain has washed the track clean of rubber.

With so many factors at play, including the generally high chance of a Safety Car presented by the circuit, this is likely to prove an especially exciting and eventful Canadian Grand Prix. The prospects of a challenge to pole-winner Verstappen emerging look slim, but as always he’s taking nothing for granted. “It’s a long race, a lot of things can happen so we just need to be on top of things.”

Qualifying times in full

Position	Number	Driver	Team	Q1 time	Q2 time (vs Q1)	Q3 time (vs Q2)
1	1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull-Honda RBPT	1’20.851	1’19.092 (-1.759s)	1’25.858 (+6.766s)
2	27	Nico Hulkenberg	Haas-Ferrari	1’22.730	1’20.305 (-2.425s)	1’27.102 (+6.797s)
3	14	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin-Mercedes	1’21.481	1’19.776 (-1.705s)	1’27.286 (+7.510s)
4	44	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	1’21.554	1’20.426 (-1.128s)	1’27.627 (+7.201s)
5	63	George Russell	Mercedes	1’21.798	1’20.098 (-1.700s)	1’27.893 (+7.795s)
6	31	Esteban Ocon	Alpine-Renault	1’22.114	1’20.406 (-1.708s)	1’27.945 (+7.539s)
7	4	Lando Norris	McLaren-Mercedes	1’21.998	1’19.347 (-2.651s)	1’28.046 (+8.699s)
8	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	1’22.248	1’19.856 (-2.392s)	1’29.294 (+9.438s)
9	81	Oscar Piastri	McLaren-Mercedes	1’22.190	1’19.659 (-2.531s)	1’31.349 (+11.690s)
10	23	Alexander Albon	Williams-Mercedes	1’21.938	1’18.725 (-3.213s)
11	16	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	1’21.843	1’20.615 (-1.228s)	Missed by 0.189s
12	11	Sergio Perez	Red Bull-Honda RBPT	1’22.151	1’20.959 (-1.192s)	Missed by 0.533s
13	18	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin-Mercedes	1’22.677	1’21.484 (-1.193s)	Missed by 1.058s
14	20	Kevin Magnussen	Haas-Ferrari	1’22.351	1’21.678 (-0.673s)	Missed by 1.252s
15	77	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo-Ferrari	1’22.332	1’21.821 (-0.511s)	Missed by 1.395s
16	22	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT	1’22.746	Missed by 0.016s
17	10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine-Renault	1’22.886	Missed by 0.156s
18	21	Nyck de Vries	AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT	1’23.137	Missed by 0.407s
19	2	Logan Sargeant	Williams-Mercedes	1’23.337	Missed by 0.607s
20	24	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo-Ferrari	1’23.342	Missed by 0.612s

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Sector times

Position	Number	Driver	Sector one	Sector two	Sector three	Ultimate lap	Deficit to ultimate lap
1	23	Alexander Albon	22.921 (3)	24.835 (1)	30.773 (1)	1’18.529	0.196
2	1	Max Verstappen	22.949 (6)	25.126 (4)	30.795 (2)	1’18.870	0.222
3	4	Lando Norris	23.03 (8)	25.094 (3)	31.065 (3)	1’19.189	0.158
4	81	Oscar Piastri	22.619 (1)	25.308 (9)	31.31 (4)	1’19.237	0.422
5	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	22.951 (7)	25.135 (5)	31.405 (5)	1’19.491	0.365
6	14	Fernando Alonso	22.787 (2)	25.145 (6)	31.768 (11)	1’19.700	0.076
7	44	Lewis Hamilton	22.948 (5)	25.046 (2)	31.817 (13)	1’19.811	0.615
8	27	Nico Hulkenberg	22.928 (4)	25.253 (7)	31.773 (12)	1’19.954	0.351
9	63	George Russell	23.09 (9)	25.282 (8)	31.676 (9)	1’20.048	0.050
10	31	Esteban Ocon	23.232 (11)	25.478 (11)	31.481 (6)	1’20.191	0.215
11	16	Charles Leclerc	23.397 (13)	25.314 (10)	31.583 (7)	1’20.294	0.321
12	11	Sergio Perez	23.329 (12)	25.618 (12)	31.682 (10)	1’20.629	0.330
13	18	Lance Stroll	23.101 (10)	26.053 (14)	32.276 (18)	1’21.430	0.054
14	77	Valtteri Bottas	23.719 (14)	26.103 (15)	31.618 (8)	1’21.440	0.381
15	20	Kevin Magnussen	23.794 (16)	25.762 (13)	31.916 (14)	1’21.472	0.206
16	10	Pierre Gasly	23.723 (15)	26.244 (16)	32.143 (15)	1’22.110	0.776
17	22	Yuki Tsunoda	23.999 (17)	26.481 (17)	32.266 (17)	1’22.746	–
18	21	Nyck de Vries	24.062 (18)	26.613 (18)	32.434 (19)	1’23.109	0.028
19	2	Logan Sargeant	24.182 (20)	26.687 (19)	32.263 (16)	1’23.132	0.205
20	24	Zhou Guanyu	24.088 (19)	26.719 (20)	32.535 (20)	1’23.342	–

Speed trap

Position	Number	Driver	Car	Engine	Model	Max kph (mph)
1	23	Alexander Albon	Williams	Mercedes	FW45	338.9 (210.6)
2	1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	Honda RBPT	RB19	332.6 (206.7)
3	11	Sergio Perez	Red Bull	Honda RBPT	RB19	332.0 (206.3)
4	81	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	Mercedes	MCL60	331.3 (205.9)
5	16	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	Ferrari	SF-23	330.4 (205.3)
6	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	Ferrari	SF-23	329.1 (204.5)
7	20	Kevin Magnussen	Haas	Ferrari	VF-23	328.4 (204.1)
8	27	Nico Hulkenberg	Haas	Ferrari	VF-23	326.6 (202.9)
9	77	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo	Ferrari	C43	325.9 (202.5)
10	14	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	Mercedes	AMR23	325.6 (202.3)
11	18	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	Mercedes	AMR23	324.7 (201.8)
12	44	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	Mercedes	W14	324.4 (201.6)
13	4	Lando Norris	McLaren	Mercedes	MCL60	323.2 (200.8)
14	31	Esteban Ocon	Alpine	Renault	A523	322.7 (200.5)
15	63	George Russell	Mercedes	Mercedes	W14	321.4 (199.7)
16	2	Logan Sargeant	Williams	Mercedes	FW45	313.0 (194.5)
17	21	Nyck de Vries	AlphaTauri	Honda RBPT	AT04	311.9 (193.8)
18	22	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri	Honda RBPT	AT04	311.5 (193.6)
19	10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine	Renault	A523	308.7 (191.8)
20	24	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo	Ferrari	C43	306.1 (190.2)

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Over to you

Will this be another routine win for Verstappen? Who will lead the chase of him?

And which of the quartet mired in the midfield will emerge ahead? Share your views on the Canadian Grand Prix in the comments.

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