In Max Verstappen’s three championship-winning seasons, he had never once started from pole position in Saudi Arabia.
Now, at the fourth attempt, car number one will start from position number one at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit. Given what has gone before there’s every chance this is the prelude to another win.But Verstappen has never enjoyed a simple race in Jeddah. In 2021, he was embroiled in an ugly battle with Hamilton. While he won in 2022, he benefitted from pole-winning team mate Sergio Perez losing the lead to a badly-timed Safety Car.
Last year, he likely would have won from pole position, but a driveshaft failure in qualifying left him down in 15th on the grid. He climbed back up to second by the finish.
In Thursday’s second practice, Verstappen once again was clearly the quickest over the long runs, maintaining a pace in the high 1’33s/low 1’34s on the medium tyre. Not only was that around half a second a lap faster than his team mate, it was also quicker than the Ferrari of Carlos Sainz Jnr, the two Mercedes and the two McLarens, who all ran on the same compound.
Leclerc tried his run on the soft tyre, perhaps testing just how durable it could be around a track that is much kinder on tyres than Bahrain. But even on theoretically faster tyres, Leclerc was never on the same pace as the pole winner.
Advert | Become a RaceFans supporter and
There is little “easy” in Formula 1, but choosing a strategy in Jeddah might be close. With the low level of tyre degradation around the 6.1km circuit and the very high average lap speed, pitting more than once is unwise from a strategy perspective. Pirelli describe a one-stop strategy as being “almost obligatory”, with a start on the mediums before a stop between laps 18-25 their recommendation for Saturday.
But while strategy may be simple, very little else is around Jeddah. First of all, by starting in second on the grid, Leclerc has a strong chance of beating Verstappen to the first corner. In the five standing starts to have been held in the three previous grands prix at the circuit (the 2021 race was stopped twice), the car on pole has only retained the lead twice.
But, fortunately, there are a couple of wildcard factors that will likely add some intrigue and uncertainty to Saturday’s race, whatever happens at the front. The first being that Jeddah produces Safety Cars, Virtual Safety Cars and red flag stoppages at a higher rate than almost any other circuit. While circuit changes over the last two years seems to have helped in that regard, Jeddah is still a venue where a mistake, a poorly-judged pass or a badly-timed mechanical problem could turn a race on its head.
The other key element to watch for is how the second Ferrari will fair from 11th on the grid. Making his grand prix debut in the most unexpected manner, 18-year-old Oliver Bearmanwill have to fight for the honour of the Prancing Horse around one of the sport’s most relenting tracks from the thick of the midfield.
As Leclerc shows, Bearman has a fast car underneath him – faster than many of those around him. It will be truly fascinating to see if and how he is able to exploit that over what will be the toughest but most rewarding 50 laps of his racing career to date.
Advert | Become a RaceFans supporter and
But while Bearman does his best from the midfield, his team mate Leclerc will be doing what he can to try and take the fight to Red Bull.
“I’m always optimistic, so we’ll try our best,” Leclerc said after qualifying.
“However, we know that normally they have the upper hand and they have a bit more pace in the race than in qualifying. And looking at the gaps today it’s going to be a difficult one to get the top spot tomorrow. But I’ll do everything as always.”
Speed trap
| P. | # | Driver | Car | Engine | Model | Max kph (mph) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | Nico Hulkenberg | Haas | Ferrari | VF-24 | 338.3 (210.2) |
| 2 | 20 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas | Ferrari | VF-24 | 334.7 (208.0) |
| 3 | 1 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | Honda RBPT | RB20 | 333.1 (207.0) |
| 4 | 3 | Daniel Ricciardo | RB | Honda RBPT | 01 | 333.1 (207.0) |
| 5 | 44 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Mercedes | W15 | 332.9 (206.9) |
| 6 | 22 | Yuki Tsunoda | RB | Honda RBPT | 01 | 332.4 (206.5) |
| 7 | 31 | Esteban Ocon | Alpine | Renault | A524 | 332.1 (206.4) |
| 8 | 11 | Sergio Perez | Red Bull | Honda RBPT | RB20 | 332.1 (206.4) |
| 9 | 2 | Logan Sargeant | Williams | Mercedes | FW46 | 332.0 (206.3) |
| 10 | 23 | Alexander Albon | Williams | Mercedes | FW46 | 331.8 (206.2) |
| 11 | 63 | George Russell | Mercedes | Mercedes | W15 | 331.5 (206.0) |
| 12 | 14 | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | Mercedes | AMR24 | 331.0 (205.7) |
| 13 | 38 | Oliver Bearman | Ferrari | Ferrari | SF-24 | 331.0 (205.7) |
| 14 | 16 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | Ferrari | SF-24 | 330.9 (205.6) |
| 15 | 77 | Valtteri Bottas | Sauber | Ferrari | C44 | 329.3 (204.6) |
| 16 | 18 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | Mercedes | AMR24 | 328.8 (204.3) |
| 17 | 10 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine | Renault | A524 | 327.7 (203.6) |
| 18 | 4 | Lando Norris | McLaren | Mercedes | MCL38 | 327.2 (203.3) |
| 19 | 81 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | Mercedes | MCL38 | 326.0 (202.6) |
| 20 | 24 | Zhou Guanyu | Sauber | Ferrari | C44 | 288.5 (179.3) |
Over to you
Can Leclerc prevent another Verstappen win – or Red Bull one-two? What can Bearman manage in the other Ferrari?
Share your views on the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix in the comments.
Become a RaceFans Supporter
RaceFans is run thanks in part to the generous support of its readers. By contributing £1 per month or £12 per year (or the same in whichever currency you use) you can help cover the costs of creating, hosting and developing RaceFans today and in the future.
Become a RaceFans Supporter today and browse the site ad-free. Sign up or find out more via the links below:
2024 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix
- Vowles being patient with Sargeant but expects to see “progress”
- “So I’ve got nothing to worry about?” – The best unheard team radio from Jeddah
- “Shock” of poor start to season showed need for change at Alpine – Famin
- “My tyres are dying”: Stroll’s short-lived struggle until he hit the wall
- Bearman calls Ferrari debut a “dream” but admits “I made a lot of mistakes”
Yes (@come-on-kubica)
8th March 2024, 23:17
What surprises?
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
8th March 2024, 23:44
Perhaps crashes, since there’s walls, and safety cars.
Grapmg
9th March 2024, 9:38
Bearman winning the race that would be a surprise. You never know with a SC or red flag anything can happen
Jonathan Parkin
9th March 2024, 12:59
And then if Carlos comes back next round Bearman will dethrone Max as the driver with the highest win percentage
Jungle
9th March 2024, 0:04
The McLaren, Mercedes and Alonso battle should be interesting…
grat
9th March 2024, 0:45
Without mechanical failure or a crash, it’s going to be a Red Bull 1-2 tomorrow. LeClerc will probably come in 3rd, unless Ferrari has a problem with the car, or strategy. I don’t think Aston Martin can take care of it’s tires enough, and I have no idea what’s going on with McLaren or Mercedes. Both teams seem a bit lost at sea in terms of how to maximize performance on their cars.
MichaelN
9th March 2024, 12:31
Their cars seem quite tricky, and have been for a while. Norris has long complained about this, although to his credit he doesn’t really use it as an excuse. Piastri doesn’t know anything else, and he also doesn’t strike me as much of a complainer. Hamilton has also been complaining about not feeling comfortable in the cars for quite a while, and he seems a bit disillusioned with the team on top of it.
Crawliin-from-the-wreckage (@davedai)
9th March 2024, 2:07
They are not deviating from their TriStar philosophy/mantra.
Pontificate
Berate
Intimidate
Little strange that the Bahrain backed McLaren teams CEO has been relatively quiet during these two rounds.
Perhaps he will be back to his boisterous BS when he clears the area .
Jere (@jerejj)
9th March 2024, 5:14
Can Leclerc prevent another Verstappen win – or Red Bull one-two? – More likely the latter.
What can Bearman manage in the other Ferrari? – Hopefully, at least low points.
Sham (@sham)
9th March 2024, 6:40
My recent posts have all been rather negative, but I honestly can’t think of anything positive to say about my hopes for this race, or the season.
I predict long DRS trains and lots and lots of lift and coast as they cruise rather quickly around the track to make the strategy work – while the Red Bulls disappear into the middle distance not even fighting amongst themselves.
The only interest will come through safety cars.
F1 needs a new tag line for advertising. Might I suggest ‘Not quite as dull as Golf’?
S
9th March 2024, 13:31
Quite often golf is better. Usually less predictable, and the scenery is much nicer too.
Maisch (@maisch)
9th March 2024, 10:16
Sometimes I wonder what the season would have been without RB, the rest of the field down there are so tight it would be hard to predict the winner, it would be very exiting fights for the podium, with different results every weekend.
Nick T.
9th March 2024, 11:22
The most tiring thing will be, just like when Seb and Lewis had dominant cars for years-and-years, we’ll have to listen to the commentators waxing lyrical about how they’ve run out of superlatives to describe just how amazing Max is and acting like we’ve never seen anything like this before.
Anyway, I know Newey prefers to stay out of the spotlight, but I find it bizarre we haven’t seen a single interview with him (maybe they have – I’m watching on F1TV). Of all interviews, he’d be potentially the most interesting.
Michael
9th March 2024, 11:42
The gaps in lap times aren’t that big but these days 0.3 seconds is consistent throughout the race. Everyone is trying to drive to predetermined lap time. 0.3 seconds equals an easy overtake. And because gaps are so close every car is within striking distance of 0.3 seconds per lap. Bullet proof reliability means 0.3 seconds faster equals a win. The McLaren of the late 90s was probably more dominant in terms of speed than the Red Bull but struggled to win half the races.
On top of that strategies have become so optimised the are almost redundant.
F1 has become to predictable.
BLS (@brightlampshade)
9th March 2024, 13:58
Can you imagine the bedlam if Verstappen has a mechanical dnf today?!?
Other than that looks like a straight forward race, Red Bull 1-2, Leclerc in 3th, Astons probably slipping back whilst the McLarens and Mercs edge forward, and Bearman hopefully picking himself up a point if he can keep out of trouble.
pcxmac (@pcxmac)
9th March 2024, 15:58
with the Bulls having the fastest pace on to the straights they should be easy choices for the podium, the real question is who can hold on to Perez. That really is the only hope the rest of the teams have of a podium, otherwise its probably Aston with the perfect strategy or Charles with a gutsy drive. Macca will try to keep pace with the leading group behind Max, if they can keep DRS and gap Merc and co, Merc will be leading the second group with Stroll in toe, and maybe OB. I suspect that HAM might have under appreciated his downforce levels for assured straightline speed, so he might, if he can keep position over his teammate, and perhaps, if he can really finesse his tires, try to keep up with Macca and possibly Alonso and Charles.
So the big questions are: can Lewis over take his teammate down the straight with DRS (doesn’t really happen) and can Macca keep up w/ Charles up to Perez. If Macca fall behind, Merc might have them over a race so 6/5th is probably expected at Mercedes, but Macca could surprise.