Predict the pecking order of 2014
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Speed-wise;
1 Mercedes
2 Ferrari
3 RedBull
4 Mclaren
….(= huge gap)
5 FOrce India
…. (gap)
6 Lotus
7 Sauber
8 Toro Rosso
9 Williams
…(gap)
10 Caterham
11 MarussiaReliability-wise /ability to actuallyfinish;
a) Ferrari
b) Mercedes
c) Mclaren
d) Sauber
e) Red Bull
f) Lotus
g) FOrce India
h) Toro Rosso
i) Caterham
j) Wiliiams
k) Marussia@Alfie – Probably because a lot of people think that Lotus’ finance will put them in bad stead for next year.
@alfie – No money and lost their lead designer this year.
1. McLaren
2. Mercedes
3. Red Bull
4. Ferrari
5. Force India
6. Williams
7. Lotus
8. Toro Rosso
9. Sauber
10. Caterham
11. MarussiaNot the pecking order I’d hope for, mind.
To add to my OP, I predict that the reliability pecking order will be:
1. Ferrari
2. Mercedes
3. Sauber
4. Williams
5. Red Bull
6. Force India
7. McLaren
8. Marussia
9. Lotus
10. Toro Rosso
11. CaterhamMost reliable engines:
(a) Ferrari
(b) Mercedes
(c) RenaultLets start summing a view things up before making any predictions:
– Ferrari and Mercedes are the only teams manufacturing their own engines.
– The Renault V8 was known for it’s driveability, and possibly lower fuel consumption.
– Ferrari have increased brain-power with Byrne and Alison onboard. Lotus have lost 2 of their lead engineers. Merc have lost Brawn, but he wouldn’t be involved in the design part anyway. Redbull is stable atm. Mclaren are obviously without Paddy Lowe.
– Redbull are known for their KERS troubles.
– Merc and Ferrari are desperate. Mclaren want payback.
– First full winter for James Key at Torro-Rosso. Sauber have lost him.
– Williams switches to Merc engines. Pat Symonds joins.-Mercedes (anything else would be a failure for them)
-Ferrari (Alison+Byrne, finally a working windtunnel)
-Redbull (Newey and their 600-man workforce still going strong)
-Mclaren (Good car, drivers struggeling: rookie + Jenson complaining about grip)
-Force India (decent car, great driver pairing – solid results)
-Williams (making progress, not hurt by the coanda-effect anymore)
-Torro-Rosso (decent, but lack of experience on the driver side make them loose out on points)
-Sauber (financial trouble, less than average driver lineup, no points anytime soon)
-Caterham (having had all 2013 to build the 2014 car)
-Marussia (back to 11th place sadly)Redbull are known for their KERS troubles.
The entire ERS-unit (including stuff like batteries) is supplied with the engine, so Red Bulls history with KERS will not be of any importance.
Red Bull will win a race next year, I am pretty certain of that. They may be slower out of the blocks, but they will claw that back.
On reliability, I think @kingshark is fairly spot-on with regards to engines: Renault I think are going to push the limits with the electricals I feel and may suffer for it. However, in terms of overall performance I think it might well be the best engine, not the Mercedes unit. The latter may have more power, but I think drivability in the high-torque they will provide will be crucial and that will be Renault’s area of strength.
Ferrari may well have a slightly lesser engine, but it will invariably be completely bullet-proof.
There’s no hard data whatsoever to show that Merc engines are producing 100 bhp more than other engines. AMUS has been slipping a bit of late.
So all in all, Ferrari isn’t the strongest engine but the most reliable, somewhere between the Merc and the Renault, right? Then you add on that ALO and RAI as drivers. Sounds like a possible constructors champion #2014 to me, don’t you guys think`?
I find it interesting that many people put Red Bull so low, while putting Mercedes at number 1. I would certainly like to see a change of the competitive order at the front, but what exactly have Mercedes going for them? A midseason report that they had requested wider rear tyres, and they recently blocking a 10kg weight increase. Encouraging signs, but is it enough to offset Red Bull’s track record of winning all titles in the past four years? I am not betting against Vettel and Newey just yet.
Other than that, I agree with what seems to be the general consensus: Lotus slipping back after losing Allison and De Beer and having no money (though I don’t think they will slip that far – they still made a big step in the second half of the season when at least Allison was not there); McLaren moving back towards the front in what can only be hoped to have been an uncharacteristically uncompetitive 2013 season, rather than the start of a decline; Williams moving forward after the banning of exhaust-blown diffusers, and Force India moving up after starting on their 2014 challenger early (and hopefully a strong driver pairing in Hulkenberg-Perez!):
1 Red Bull
2 Mercedes
3 Ferrari
4 McLaren
5 Lotus
6 Force India
7 Williams
8 Toro Rosso
9 Sauber (could have a weak driver pairing)
10 Caterham
11 Marussia (will these two ever move closer to the midfield? I fear that they won’t)As much as I like to believe the hype around Mercedes I have to view it with a fair amount of caution. Pre-season confidence and bravado counts for naught in this sport. If it did BAR would have won their first race and BMW would have dominated the 2009 season, but we all know how those stories ended up. Let’s not forget that Renault introduced turbocharging to the sport in the first place and they were very keen on bringing it back to the sport together with more powerful ERS for 2014, so I can’t see them producing a dog of a power train.
As for pecking order, the usual suspects (Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren and Lotus) will all be there or there abouts in 2014. Red Bull have to start as favorites, 4 title doubles on the bounce and a strong team mean they will definitely be near the front. It will be interesting to see how the midfield ends up with Williams, Sauber, Force India and STR all having different strengths and weaknesses relative to one another. Williams and Force India (if the rumors are to be believed) should end up with the strongest driver pairings but were ultimately slower than Sauber at the end of 2013. STR will produce another “Red Bullski” design and they will have the same Renault power trains so should be fairly quick. Sauber are looking to have the weakest driver line up of any of the established teams in my book, so how they will fare is debatable.
May as well have a stab at the order:
1. Red Bull
2. Mercedes
3. McLaren
4. Ferrari
5. Lotus
6. Williams
7. Force India
8. STR
9. Sauber
10. Caterham
11. MarussiaIn terms of overall team performance:
1. Mercedes (Two good drivers, good performance)
2. Ferrari (Two good drivers, reliable cars, maybe not as quick)
3. Red Bull (Good cars, Sebastien will do well, Daniel will struggle massively)
4. McLaren (Magnussen will do better than Button)
5. Williams (Not sure why, but out of the midfield teams, I could see Williams being the top)
6. Force India (Good driver pairing, mediocre cars as usual)
7. Lotus (Cars will be mediocre this year, Grosjean will do well, several top-10’s and some top-5’s, Maldonado will drag down team)
8. Toro Rosso
9. Sauber (Rubbish Cars, Rubbish Drivers)
10. Marussia
11. CaterhamSince this thread got a little more serious since my post;
As far as pace is concerned, I think Red Bull will need a couple of races to get up to pace again, as was the case the last 2 years. Mercedes and Ferrari will be the likely beneficiaries of this, as Mercedes have proven to be fast once they’ve got the tyres under control, which should be easier for them in 2014. As for Ferrari, their reliability has been massive for a long time now and with 2 world champions, a very strong design and engineering teams, could further maximize an early season advantage, which they failed to do in 2013. Meanwhile, McLaren typically bounces back after a poor year (2006, 2010) and should be able to do so next season, but Magnussen is facing a very different debut season than Hamilton.
Lotus, Force India and Sauber will have to pick up the points the top 4 teams leave on the table, as I expect them to have a less developed car than the top 4 teams. Then again, Lotus has struggled since 2011 and made proper cars for 2012 and 2013, so I’m not as pessimistic about them as some others. Sauber will suffer a little too, but Force India will probably continue to be mediocre. Williams is hard to tell, they’ve been hit and miss lately. Toro Rosso probably got less attention than mother Red Bull Racing, so I’d imagine them to be behind the midfield a bit.
As for Caterham and Marussia, both clearly sacrificed 2013, but as we’ve seen with Minardi, Jordan (in their later years) and many before them, I’d imagine their reliabilty to take a hit and have a lot of DNFs. I’d like them to get closer, but the fact they both went from ‘stable regulations offer us growth’ to ‘a shake-up in the rules offers us a chance to get to the midfield’ tells you what they know.
I expect Lotus to fall in the constructor’s championship, because Grosjean could still miss out on points as he did in early 2013 (before Monaco he was rather unlucky, spare Bahrain) and it’ll take a lot of driver management for Maldonado to flourish. I expect McLaren will be behind Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes in points as well, I think Magnussen is a great talent, but he will be more likely to score a lot less than Button. Ricciardo will also be likely to struggle a little. Ferrari and Mercedes might be able to go for the constructor’s title.
Mercedes and Ferrari have a strong, reliable pairing and both teams have strong staff. I’d put a buck on Alonso, Hamilton and Vettel dishing it out for the title, with Raikkonen and Rosberg close behind.
Now, what I’d like to see happen; more than 5 different race winners. I expect this year’s 5 (Raikkonen, Vettel, Alonso, Rosberg, Hamilton) to win again, but it’d be nice to see Button win again, and the odd victory for someone like Grosjean, Hulkenberg, Magnussen, Ricciardo or Massa.
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