Verstappen needs another signature fightback to deny Perez the points lead

Since becoming world champion at the end of 2021, Max Verstappen’s tenure with the fabled number ‘1’ on his car has been defined by two things – crushingly dominant victories and spectacular fightbacks through the field.

Over three practice sessions and the first two phases of qualifying, it looked for all the world that this Miami Grand Prix weekend was going to be another weekend where Verstappen would put daylight between him and the rest of the field and convert pole position into a comfortable third win of the season. Instead, he will start outside the top six on the grid for the sixth time since the start of 2022 – but this time, he has himself to blame.

Just a small error at turns six and seven – now unquestionably the biggest danger-spot on the Miami circuit – was enough to ruin Verstappen’s first flying lap attempt in Q3. And thanks to Charles Leclerc, he never got a second.

Verstappen’s failure to set a time in Q3 not only ensured a fifth row start for today’s grand prix, it left team mate Sergio Perez a proverbial open goal to snatch pole position, which he duly converted. But while Perez recognised he hadn’t had the strongest build up into qualifying, he is determined to make the most of his opportunity starting at the front, just as he did in Jeddah earlier in the season.

“It never feels nice when you see another driver crashing or a red flag on track,” Perez said. “I was a bit surprised, I thought we were going to go again and not end the session there, but that was it.

“I just want to do well tomorrow. It’s a new day and anything can happen. I have to be fully committed and we have to try to do our own race. The target is to get the perfect launch and then the perfect race.”

Verstappen is no stranger to starting well out of position in his dominant Red Bull, but this is perhaps the first time he does so entirely of his own making. However, ninth is not as drastic as 14th or even 15th on the grid, where he has recently started from and yet still either come back to win or finish second. But Verstappen knows that starting from slightly further up the grid this time will not make his journey to the front of the field much easier around this circuit.

“It will be a little bit tougher,” Verstappen said. “I think with the pace of the car we have, normally, we should have a chance of moving forward quite quickly. But I hope it’s not going to be a DRS train, because then you are in trouble.”

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In Jeddah, it took Verstappen 25 laps to make his way from 15th on the grid up to second place. Fernando Alonso, who will start alongside Perez on the front row of the grid, predicted it will take Verstappen the same amount of laps to achieve the same today.

The biggest challenge facing Verstappen is not his fellow rivals but the circuit itself. The freshly repaved asphalt around the Hard Rock Stadium was supposed to address driver complaints about the lack of grip last year. But while lap times have decreased with the new surface, concerns over grip have not. Alexander Albon described the surface as “not good enough,” while Esteban Ocon said that overtaking is “going to be tricky for sure, because off-line is quite slippery”.

Making matters even trickier for drivers, heavy overnight rain over Miami Gardens will have washed away much of the precious rubber that has built up over the first few days. Pole-winner Perez likened opening practice on Friday to like driving in intermediate conditions in the dry. If rain has reset the track condition back to where it was at the start of the weekend, drivers will be in for a tricky opening phase of the race, heavy on fuel and low on grip.

There’s also the question of tyre strategy. The last few races have been one-stop affairs, but with such little natural grip and the potential for drivers to be stuck behind rivals with the reduced DRS zones for this weekend, Albon says it’s difficult to predict what the field could so this afternoon.

“I think there’s a big unknown on what the tyres are going to do,” he said. “It’s a weird sensation, because the tyres are very clean, but they’re just overheating. It’s going to be a challenge, I don’t think anyone really knows what to expect.

“I do think it’s going to be a one-stop for everyone, that being said, but let’s see. There is one line even if you can’t see on the track, you have to imagine it being like a like a drying track that’s kind of the margins. One tyre width is what it takes to go off and you can’t overtake.”

Pirelli are again expecting another medium-to-hard strategy race, but head of motorsport Mario Isola expects that the tropical temperatures around Miami could have an impact on degradation through the race.

“The slight shortening of the pit lane opens up the possibility of a two-stopper,” explained Isola. “But we’ve also seen a bit of graining on the softs over long runs.”

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One team that will be happy to see higher temperatures is Aston Martin. Alonso starts on the front row alongside Perez and is aiming to beat the Red Bull driver into turn one at the start for the second time in four races – albeit without repeating the grid positioning error which led to his penalty in Jeddah.

Aston Martin team principal Mike Krack feels Aston Martin’s superior tyre management could prove a more significant factor at this race than it has in the rounds since the season-opener. “In Baku, no one needed to do much tyre management because the track temperatures were not that high,” he said. “That perhaps played against us – so this weekend, higher track temps should suit us a little bit more.”

Unfortunately for the many fans who will be cheering Alonso on from second on the grid, the Aston Martin driver is ruling himself out of the hunt for a race win if a typical race unfolds and will be focusing on Carlos Sainz Jnr and others behind him.

“We have strong opposition behind,” he said. “Ferrari has been very strong this weekend and in Baku, some upgrades also on their car. Max obviously will come eventually in the race, quite fast. So yeah, a lot of things to take care of in the mirrors.”

Sainz will be leading the charge for Ferrari after Leclerc’s Q3 crash from third on the grid. He believes his opportunity lies at the start of the race, knowing that Alonso will likely be the stronger of the pair over the course of the race.

“Normally what we’ve seen this year is that the Aston and Fernando are a bit quicker in race pace than what we are,” Sainz said, “They take better care of the tyres, they have less deg, or whatever it is – which we are still trying to find out – and still trying to improve in our car. But let’s see how overtaking is, let’s see where we are after lap one.”

With a freshly-washed track, threats from Alonso and Sainz behind at the start, his hard-charging team mate looking to catch up to him and a 40% risk of rain at the start of the race, Perez’s path to victory is not as simple as it may appear. But having finally appeared to have got comfortable with his car when it mattered most on Saturday, Perez knows he just has to keep it clean and he has a genuine chance of taking the championship lead for the first time in his 13-season F1 career.

“I’m mainly focusing now on getting a good start and being able to manage our first stint,” he said. “It’s a very long race and still a lot can happen.”

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Qualifying times in full

Position	Number	Driver	Team	Q1 time	Q2 time (vs Q1)	Q3 time (vs Q2)
1	11	Sergio Perez	Red Bull-Honda RBPT	1’27.713	1’27.328 (-0.385s)	1’26.841 (-0.487s)
2	14	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin-Mercedes	1’28.179	1’27.097 (-1.082s)	1’27.202 (+0.105s)
3	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	1’27.686	1’27.148 (-0.538s)	1’27.349 (+0.201s)
4	20	Kevin Magnussen	Haas-Ferrari	1’27.809	1’27.673 (-0.136s)	1’27.767 (+0.094s)
5	10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine-Renault	1’28.061	1’27.612 (-0.449s)	1’27.786 (+0.174s)
6	63	George Russell	Mercedes	1’28.086	1’27.743 (-0.343s)	1’27.804 (+0.061s)
7	16	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	1’27.713	1’26.964 (-0.749s)	1’27.861 (+0.897s)
8	31	Esteban Ocon	Alpine-Renault	1’27.872	1’27.444 (-0.428s)	1’27.935 (+0.491s)
9	1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull-Honda RBPT	1’27.363	1’26.814 (-0.549s)
10	77	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo-Ferrari	1’27.864	1’27.564 (-0.300s)
11	23	Alexander Albon	Williams-Mercedes	1’28.234	1’27.795 (-0.439s)	Missed by 0.052s
12	27	Nico Hulkenberg	Haas-Ferrari	1’27.945	1’27.903 (-0.042s)	Missed by 0.160s
13	44	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	1’27.846	1’27.975 (+0.129s)	Missed by 0.232s
14	24	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo-Ferrari	1’28.180	1’28.091 (-0.089s)	Missed by 0.348s
15	21	Nyck de Vries	AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT	1’28.325	1’28.395 (+0.070s)	Missed by 0.652s
16	4	Lando Norris	McLaren-Mercedes	1’28.394	Missed by 0.069s
17	22	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT	1’28.429	Missed by 0.104s
18	18	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin-Mercedes	1’28.476	Missed by 0.151s
19	81	Oscar Piastri	McLaren-Mercedes	1’28.484	Missed by 0.159s
20	2	Logan Sargeant	Williams-Mercedes	1’28.577	Missed by 0.252s

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Sector times

Position	Number	Driver	Sector one	Sector two	Sector three	Ultimate lap	Deficit to ultimate lap
1	11	Sergio Perez	28.942 (1)	33.04 (3)	24.755 (1)	1’26.737	0.104
2	16	Charles Leclerc	29.085 (3)	32.935 (1)	24.784 (3)	1’26.804	0.160
3	1	Max Verstappen	29.073 (2)	32.956 (2)	24.785 (4)	1’26.814	–
4	14	Fernando Alonso	29.14 (5)	33.125 (5)	24.756 (2)	1’27.021	0.076
5	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	29.123 (4)	33.113 (4)	24.885 (5)	1’27.121	0.027
6	31	Esteban Ocon	29.288 (7)	33.193 (7)	24.945 (7)	1’27.426	0.018
7	77	Valtteri Bottas	29.166 (6)	33.32 (10)	24.954 (9)	1’27.440	0.124
8	10	Pierre Gasly	29.325 (8)	33.226 (8)	24.982 (12)	1’27.533	0.079
9	20	Kevin Magnussen	29.338 (9)	33.268 (9)	24.975 (10)	1’27.581	0.092
10	63	George Russell	29.364 (10)	33.165 (6)	25.12 (18)	1’27.649	0.094
11	44	Lewis Hamilton	29.37 (11)	33.357 (12)	24.979 (11)	1’27.706	0.140
12	27	Nico Hulkenberg	29.477 (16)	33.348 (11)	24.894 (6)	1’27.719	0.184
13	23	Alexander Albon	29.414 (13)	33.399 (13)	24.982 (12)	1’27.795	–
14	24	Zhou Guanyu	29.408 (12)	33.461 (14)	25.061 (16)	1’27.930	0.161
15	22	Yuki Tsunoda	29.609 (17)	33.494 (15)	25.129 (19)	1’28.232	0.197
16	21	Nyck de Vries	29.453 (14)	33.683 (18)	25.113 (17)	1’28.249	0.076
17	4	Lando Norris	29.471 (15)	33.652 (16)	25.271 (20)	1’28.394	–
18	18	Lance Stroll	29.768 (19)	33.696 (19)	24.952 (8)	1’28.416	0.060
19	81	Oscar Piastri	29.756 (18)	33.681 (17)	25.047 (15)	1’28.484	–
20	2	Logan Sargeant	29.832 (20)	33.759 (20)	24.986 (14)	1’28.577	–

Speed trap

Position	Number	Driver	Car	Engine	Model	Max kph (mph)
1	11	Sergio Perez	Red Bull	Honda RBPT	RB19	342.8 (213.0)
2	1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	Honda RBPT	RB19	341.2 (212.0)
3	2	Logan Sargeant	Williams	Mercedes	FW45	340.6 (211.6)
4	31	Esteban Ocon	Alpine	Renault	A523	339.9 (211.2)
5	23	Alexander Albon	Williams	Mercedes	FW45	338.8 (210.5)
6	27	Nico Hulkenberg	Haas	Ferrari	VF-23	338.8 (210.5)
7	21	Nyck de Vries	AlphaTauri	Honda RBPT	AT04	338.4 (210.3)
8	20	Kevin Magnussen	Haas	Ferrari	VF-23	338.3 (210.2)
9	24	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo	Ferrari	C43	338.3 (210.2)
10	14	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	Mercedes	AMR23	338.0 (210.0)
11	44	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	Mercedes	W14	337.9 (210.0)
12	77	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo	Ferrari	C43	337.6 (209.8)
13	81	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	Mercedes	MCL60	337.0 (209.4)
14	63	George Russell	Mercedes	Mercedes	W14	336.9 (209.3)
15	10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine	Renault	A523	336.2 (208.9)
16	16	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	Ferrari	SF-23	336.2 (208.9)
17	4	Lando Norris	McLaren	Mercedes	MCL60	336.0 (208.8)
18	18	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	Mercedes	AMR23	336.0 (208.8)
19	22	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri	Honda RBPT	AT04	334.8 (208.0)
20	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	Ferrari	SF-23	333.3 (207.1)

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Over to you

Will Perez hold on to claim his third grand prix victory of the season? Share your views on the Miami Grand Prix in the comments.

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