Resurgent McLaren add new dimension to the race to beat Verstappen

2023 British Grand Prix pre-race analysis

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In the 74-year history of the British Grand Prix on the world championship calendar, only eight British drivers have had the honour of starting it from pole position: Stirling Moss, Jim Clark, Graham Hill, Tom Pryce, James Hunt, Nigel Mansell, Damon Hill and Lewis Hamilton.

Lando Norris oh-so-nearly became the ninth member of that illustrious list at the end of a thrilling Saturday at Silverstone. For 13 seconds, the 140,000 fans lining the circuit watched with bated breath as Norris sat atop the timing screens on provisional pole position – many of them hoping that he would stay there.

But there was to be no fairytale home pole for the McLaren driver as Max Verstappen roared across the line to claim the top spot on the grid and continue his seemingly unstoppable run of dominance in F1’s modern-day ground effect era.

Red Bull have faced many challengers over the opening 10 rounds of the 2023 season so far – from Aston Martin to Ferrari to Mercedes. Verstappen has had his mirrors filled with two Ferraris and two Mercedes directly behind him on the starting grid already this season, but not two McLarens.

Sergio Perez, Red Bull, Silverstone, 2023
Perez harpooned his own hopes again
As Sergio Perez has once again given himself plenty of work to do in order become a factor at the front on Sunday following his fifth successive qualifying disappointment, McLaren are the latest team to have strength in numbers over Verstappen heading into a grand prix. After their strongest showing of the season last weekend in Austria, Norris is allowing himself some optimism on the eve of his and McLaren’s home grand prix.

“I’m not normally hopeful going into a Sunday, because of how this year has been and how things normally go or certain tracks come Sunday,” Norris said. “But I’ve got some reasons to believe and some hope after our pace today, and how we were on Friday, that we can have a good race tomorrow.”

But while Norris is sensible enough to admit McLaren’s pace is “probably not enough” to take the fight to the driver aiming for his sixth victory in a row, he believes McLaren have “enough to put up a fight for, hopefully, a top five”.

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Team mate Oscar Piastri starts from five places higher than he’s ever started before in his rookie season to date. After Norris was able to finish ahead of an Aston Martin and both Mercedes last weekend in Austria with an upgraded car, Piastri is hopeful he can do the same in his first race with the revised McLaren.

Verstappen was surprised to see Norris get closest to him
“I think we’ll have to see what our race pace is like,” said Piastri. “Lando showed last week that we can hang on in the races now to a much better extent. So hopefully we can try and do the same tomorrow.

“Of course, staying in the top three will be tricky with quite a few quick cars behind us. But definitely a solid points score can be on the cards.”

Behind the McLarens, Ferrari beat both Mercedes to fourth and fifth for Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jnr. Ferrari’s Austrian Grand Prix performance validated them as having genuinely strong race pace, so it’s only natural that Leclerc says he’s focused on attacking the McLarens ahead of him, rather than the Mercedes behind – even if he knows Norris will put up a fight.

“Of course it’s going to be tricky,” Leclerc said in response to a question from RaceFans. “Lando is always aggressive in defending, but I will be as aggressive to try and pass him.”

However, Sainz appears to be more concerned about the threat of the Mercedes duo than his team mate is. “I think we are both going to be under a lot of pressure from the Mercedes because yesterday they were flying in their race pace,” he said.

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Mercedes endured a difficult Friday where both Lewis Hamilton and George Russell admitted to being baffled by their inability to find a comfortable set-up. The team’s trackside engineering director, Andrew Shovlin, described Mercedes as having a “race car that could fight for a podium, with a qualifying car that would struggle to threaten the top 10”. So after qualifying just behind the Ferraris, Russell was much happier about Mercedes’ prospects for the race.

Mercedes’ race pace looks strong
“I’m feeling positive, feeling motivated, but there’s a couple of unknowns,” he said. “I think we know roughly where Ferrari will be. I think we probably have a tenth or two on them – whether that’s enough to pass them physically on-track rather than around the pit stops is one thing.”

Hamilton, who will line up one place behind his team mate, was keeping cautious about his chances of being about to thrill his many thousands of home fans on Sunday with a podium.

“Of course I’ll try to be optimistic and do our best but, realistically, I’m not sure,” he admitted. “We’ll find out. It is difficult to get past the two Ferraris and then we’ve got two McLarens now there – it’s going to be a tough race.”

Saturday’s rain-affected running makes Friday’s long run data all the more relevant with the race expected to be dry with a lower risk of rain than Saturday. Second practice saw more long runs than usual, with the Red Bulls and Sainz all doing multiple high-fuel runs on the soft and medium compounds.

Of the top seven starters, Russell posted the fastest average lap time on the soft tyres of 1’33.725, just under a tenth of a second faster than Verstappen’s pace on the softs, but over a run of just four laps compared to Verstappen’s seven. With Leclerc unable to participate in the session, Sainz’s pace on the softs was the slowest, but his pace on the mediums was more promising. McLaren also looked reasonably strong, with Piastri’s average lap time on the softs fractionally faster than Verstappen, while Norris chose the hard tyre for his long run of nine laps, averaging a pace of 1’34.0.

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LapVER (S)VER (M)SAI (S)SAI (M)PER (S)PER (M)ALB (H)SAR (M)STR(H)STR (S)RUS (S)HAM (S)
193.00393.87893.57993.70894.7192.72994.13594.39893.96593.39993.6493.896
293.12193.71893.7393.52793.9693.06294.26294.89793.97993.72593.83193.899
393.33893.15894.493.81393.64195.17294.52794.70294.14496.68293.65398.44
493.45497.73195.03594.85893.81693.07194.26695.03194.17294.04493.77693.653
595.00993.05795.13894.01593.20594.95594.80294.79894.07194.34
694.28597.27394.994.13794.75594.39594.79494.29294.121
794.41993.00794.77194.88894.794.69895.09194.36594.238
894.69894.41794.4494.46695.06394.047
994.30394.59494.40794.74193.901
1094.10494.71194.6193.879
1194.38894.32795.002
1294.02394.256

Tyre wear will be especially important at Silverstone due to the many high-speed corners placing the rubber under heavy and sustained load throughout the 52-lap race. Pirelli point to a two-stop strategy as the best route to the chequered flag.

Last year saw the vast majority of drivers used all three of Pirelli’s dry compounds during the race. After everyone avoided using soft tyres during last weekend’s race in Austria – save for winner Verstappen’s fastest lap attempt – Pirelli expects the soft compound will be a much more viable option in the race on Sunday, much like it proved at the end of last year’s race.

The cloudy conditions could also have a material impact on the race, with track temperatures projected to be lower than teams enjoyed on Friday in the glorious sunshine. McLaren will be relieved by the weather forecast, as the MCL60 prefers a cool track even in its updated form.

With its long straights and open, flowing corners, Silverstone is already a circuit that provides opportunities for close battling over multiple corners. With the three teams nearest to Red Bull looking so close to each other heading into race day, the three drivers who end up on the podium at the end of the day will each have to work exceptionally hard to get there.

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Qualifying times in full

PositionNumberDriverTeamQ1 timeQ2 time (vs Q1)Q3 time (vs Q2)
11Max VerstappenRed Bull-Honda RBPT1’29.4281’27.702 (-1.726s)1’26.720 (-0.982s)
24Lando NorrisMcLaren-Mercedes1’28.9171’28.042 (-0.875s)1’26.961 (-1.081s)
381Oscar PiastriMcLaren-Mercedes1’29.8741’27.845 (-2.029s)1’27.092 (-0.753s)
416Charles LeclercFerrari1’29.1431’28.361 (-0.782s)1’27.136 (-1.225s)
555Carlos Sainz JnrFerrari1’29.8651’28.265 (-1.600s)1’27.148 (-1.117s)
663George RussellMercedes1’29.4121’28.782 (-0.630s)1’27.155 (-1.627s)
744Lewis HamiltonMercedes1’29.4151’28.545 (-0.870s)1’27.211 (-1.334s)
823Alexander AlbonWilliams-Mercedes1’29.4661’28.067 (-1.399s)1’27.530 (-0.537s)
914Fernando AlonsoAston Martin-Mercedes1’29.9491’28.368 (-1.581s)1’27.659 (-0.709s)
1010Pierre GaslyAlpine-Renault1’29.5331’28.751 (-0.782s)1’27.689 (-1.062s)
1127Nico HulkenbergHaas-Ferrari1’29.6031’28.896 (-0.707s)Missed by 0.114s
1218Lance StrollAston Martin-Mercedes1’29.4481’28.935 (-0.513s)Missed by 0.153s
1331Esteban OconAlpine-Renault1’29.7001’28.956 (-0.744s)Missed by 0.174s
142Logan SargeantWilliams-Mercedes1’29.8731’29.031 (-0.842s)Missed by 0.249s
1577Valtteri BottasAlfa Romeo-Ferrari1’29.798
1611Sergio PerezRed Bull-Honda RBPT1’29.968Missed by 0.019s
1722Yuki TsunodaAlphaTauri-Honda RBPT1’30.025Missed by 0.076s
1824Zhou GuanyuAlfa Romeo-Ferrari1’30.123Missed by 0.174s
1921Nyck de VriesAlphaTauri-Honda RBPT1’30.513Missed by 0.564s
2020Kevin MagnussenHaas-Ferrari1’32.378Missed by 2.429s

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Sector times

PositionNumberDriverSector oneSector twoSector threeUltimate lapDeficit to ultimate lap
11Max Verstappen27.482 (2)35.201 (1)24.004 (1)1’26.6870.033
24Lando Norris27.544 (3)35.312 (2)24.105 (2)1’26.961
381Oscar Piastri27.634 (8)35.35 (3)24.108 (3)1’27.092
416Charles Leclerc27.461 (1)35.384 (5)24.291 (7)1’27.136
555Carlos Sainz Jnr27.592 (6)35.38 (4)24.176 (5)1’27.148
663George Russell27.573 (5)35.41 (7)24.172 (4)1’27.155
744Lewis Hamilton27.61 (7)35.407 (6)24.194 (6)1’27.211
823Alexander Albon27.562 (4)35.551 (8)24.368 (10)1’27.4810.049
914Fernando Alonso27.635 (9)35.589 (9)24.318 (8)1’27.5420.117
1010Pierre Gasly27.668 (10)35.641 (10)24.321 (9)1’27.6300.059
1131Esteban Ocon28.087 (14)35.843 (12)24.874 (11)1’28.8040.152
1218Lance Stroll28.036 (12)35.764 (11)25.026 (14)1’28.8260.109
1327Nico Hulkenberg28.066 (13)35.877 (13)24.953 (12)1’28.896
142Logan Sargeant27.917 (11)36.089 (15)25.025 (13)1’29.031
1577Valtteri Bottas28.13 (15)36.328 (17)25.34 (15)1’29.798
1611Sergio Perez28.318 (20)36.097 (16)25.553 (17)1’29.968
1722Yuki Tsunoda28.269 (16)36.027 (14)25.729 (18)1’30.025
1824Zhou Guanyu28.282 (18)36.365 (19)25.476 (16)1’30.123
1921Nyck de Vries28.276 (17)36.33 (18)25.907 (19)1’30.513
2020Kevin Magnussen28.284 (19)36.903 (20)27.036 (20)1’32.2230.155

Speed trap

PositionNumberDriverCarEngineModelMax kph (mph)
114Fernando AlonsoAston MartinMercedesAMR23327.2 (203.3)
255Carlos Sainz JnrFerrariFerrariSF-23326.4 (202.8)
323Alexander AlbonWilliamsMercedesFW45326.3 (202.8)
41Max VerstappenRed BullHonda RBPTRB19326.1 (202.6)
516Charles LeclercFerrariFerrariSF-23325.0 (201.9)
663George RussellMercedesMercedesW14322.9 (200.6)
744Lewis HamiltonMercedesMercedesW14322.3 (200.3)
810Pierre GaslyAlpineRenaultA523322.3 (200.3)
94Lando NorrisMcLarenMercedesMCL60320.6 (199.2)
1081Oscar PiastriMcLarenMercedesMCL60319.7 (198.7)
112Logan SargeantWilliamsMercedesFW45308.6 (191.8)
1218Lance StrollAston MartinMercedesAMR23308.4 (191.6)
1331Esteban OconAlpineRenaultA523304.7 (189.3)
1421Nyck de VriesAlphaTauriHonda RBPTAT04303.2 (188.4)
1522Yuki TsunodaAlphaTauriHonda RBPTAT04302.7 (188.1)
1611Sergio PerezRed BullHonda RBPTRB19300.9 (187.0)
1727Nico HulkenbergHaasFerrariVF-23300.4 (186.7)
1824Zhou GuanyuAlfa RomeoFerrariC43299.5 (186.1)
1977Valtteri BottasAlfa RomeoFerrariC43298.7 (185.6)
2020Kevin MagnussenHaasFerrariVF-23297.6 (184.9)

Over to you

Is anything going to keep Verstappen from another win? And who will emerged in front among his rivals?

Share your views on the British Grand Prix in the comments.

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Author information

Will Wood
Will has been a RaceFans contributor since 2012 during which time he has covered F1 test sessions, launch events and interviewed drivers. He mainly...

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15 comments on “Resurgent McLaren add new dimension to the race to beat Verstappen”

  1. Unless Max has some kind of issue the win is out of the question for others, Ferrari, Merc, Mclaren and Aston going to be a great battle though. I expect it to really be Merc v Ferrari for the podium with Perez closing them all down. If we ignore Max and class 2nd as the win it is a thoroughly good season.

    1. Yellow Baron
      9th July 2023, 10:59

      The most fun way to watch might be to pretend max isn’t in the race and that P2 is P1

  2. The 2 Marks want Oscar in the Bull 2024 ,there has been a lot of rumblings about this in Canberra , Oscars quali podium and good race might expedite this to be very real, especially with poor checo not taking trick!

    1. That’s an interesting thought. But I very much doubt it:
      – Piastri is not from Red Bull junior programme;
      – he could rock the boat, though i doubt it he could do it in short term;
      – they have Ricciardo, which would be a reliable No. 2.
      Norris would be much more interesting prospect, but as I said, Red Bull need No. 2 driver, and there are plenty of those down the grid.

  3. Is anything going to keep Verstappen from another win? – Nothing other than the usual factors outside his control.
    And who will emerged in front among his rivals? – I reckon Ferrari because I’m slightly skeptical about Mclaren staying ahead over the entire race distance.

  4. Is anything going to keep Verstappen from another win?

    Nick his car and make him race something else?

  5. notagrumpyfan
    9th July 2023, 9:05

    The more teams joining the fight to beat Verstappen, the quicker his third WDC will be confirmed.
    But until that time (and maybe afterwards) it would be an interesting championship.

  6. We will have to wait amd see if the performance isnthere during a (long) race. Just like Haas, they couls be qualifying wonders but absolutely tear trough tires in a race.

  7. Looks like another soggy F2 race this morning, but with the rain disappearing off (towards the cricket in Leeds) by race o’clock at 3.
    Looking forward to seeing Oscar’s racing skills up at the sharp end. The lap time chart suggests Williams are going long – they’ll do well to hang on to any points without being picked off by Gasly, Alonso and Perez.

    1. Coventry Climax
      9th July 2023, 13:17

      You only got one cricket in Leeds? That sounds like ecological disaster country. There used to be millions of them around. ;-)

  8. Just looked at the tyres everyone has for the race, and I am afraid Aston Martin might not finish in the top ten. Stroll and Alonso don’t have a new medium or new hard, whereas all other drivers do.
    Astons are doomed unless everyone around them eat their tyres much faster. Especially considering that this doesn’t look like a one-stop race; in F2, they destroyed tyres quite quickly.

    1. And one more thing – Aston upgrades are working or what:-)? Alonso has the highest top speed, which looks strange.

  9. BLS (@brightlampshade)
    9th July 2023, 12:23

    Unless he comes a cropper in the first corners Max is going to win this at a gentle jogging pace. I do wonder if at some point it’ll start to bother him that it’s too easy, or if he couldn’t care less.

    1. Coventry Climax
      9th July 2023, 13:20

      In his latest interview on CNN he says -in my words- it’s exactly what the team has been working hard for, and for a long time. Ofcourse a bit of competition would be nice, but until then he’s just enjoying it the way it is.

    2. I do wonder if at some point it’ll start to bother him that it’s too easy, or if he couldn’t care less.

      He will take it without a single blink, just AD 2021

Comments are closed.