Why Sainz is wary of Red Bull, and Pirelli doubt Mercedes’ two-stop plan can work

Midway through one of the most brutally dominant stretches a Formula 1 team has ever enjoyed, Mercedes arrived at Singapore in mid-September 2015 boasting a tally of 10 wins from the first 12 rounds.

Despite no major change to the car, no ‘mass damper’-esque FIA intervention or obvious act of sabotage, Mercedes’ untouchable pace simply evaporated in the humid Singapore heat that weekend. Neither Lewis Hamilton nor his team mate Nico Rosberg qualified on the front two rows of the grid in qualifying and, on race day, only Rosberg finished – three places and 24 seconds behind winner Sebastian Vettel in fourth.

Mercedes admitted they were mystified as to what caused their pace around the Marina Bay circuit to vanish. In the next round at Suzuka they resumed their monopoly over the top two positions once more like nothing had happened.

As bizarre a blip in form as that Singapore weekend was for Mercedes eight years ago, Red Bull’s loss of performance in the thick of their all-time record winning streak is even harder to fathom. The RB19 is the only Formula 1 car ever built to arrive at its 15th grand prix unbeaten. Even if Red Bull decide not to show up to the remaining seven rounds, the RB19 will still go down in history as one of the best racing cars of all time.

Yet, despite making no major changes to their car this weekend, both Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez were both knocked out of Q2 in qualifying like they were also-rans, not the team who have owned the top step of the podium all year long.

“We tried a new aero part in practice, but what we went into qualifying with is tried and tested,” team principal Christian Horner admitted after their worst qualifying performance in recent memory. “For whatever reason, the car just hasn’t responded at this circuit.”

Singapore could not be more different from the hallowed asphalt of Monza F1 visited just two weeks ago, yet despite both Ferrari drivers insisting that the SF-23 was likely better suited to the Italian circuit than Singapore, Carlos Sainz Jnr stormed to a second straight pole position that even he had not expected heading into the weekend.

“I’m pleasantly surprised,” the pole winner admitted. “Because at our last high downforce track, we’ve really struggled. We’ve haven’t been on the pace.

“We’ve done a lot of work to try and understand our high-downforce package and the team has done a very good job to put it together for Singapore. I think it’s a good job well done.”

Advert | Become a RaceFans supporter and go ad-free

But while Sainz’s pole appeared to validate his practice pace after going quickest in the final two sessions, he had been a little fortunate to end up fastest of all. Heading down Marina Bay’s newly fashioned straight approaching turn 16 on their final laps, Sainz had been a tenth of a second slower than Ferrari team mate Charles Leclerc. But as he exited turn 17, Leclerc lost traction and momentum, losing time all the way to the timing line and allowing both Sainz and George Russell to just squeeze ahead of him at the finish.

“A small mistake in turn 17 which cost me too much, but apart from that I’m happy with the lap,” Leclerc accepted. “It wasn’t enough today, though.”

Russell’s clean lap was rewarded with his first front row appearance since Melbourne back at the start of April. After telling RaceFans in Zandvoort that he had changed his approach to qualifying after some disappointing results before the summer break, it is Russell’s third consecutive top four grid position since the season resumed. But admitted Mercedes were had expected to be in the fight for pole this weekend.

“We know that on the high-downforce circuits we tend to go better. So this is a great opportunity, this weekend, to get a victory.”

Russell is underselling the enormity of the open goal Mercedes and Ferrari are both staring down thanks to Red Bull’s stumble. While there’s no doubt this is the best chance for either team to break Red Bull’s streak all season, there’s also every chance that this could be their only opportunity to win a grand prix in 2023. The question is, which team will capitalise.

Going by Friday’s long run data under the lights, it’s likely to be a close battle between the Ferraris and Russell’s Mercedes. On the mediums, Lewis Hamilton ran the fastest pace on the high fuel runs, lapping at an average of a 1’38.3 over his eight-lap stint. Sainz was just over a tenth of a second per lap slower than Hamilton, with Russell almost identical to the pole winner and Leclerc lapping around three tenths a lap off his team mate. Lando Norris was faster than all four in the McLaren, but his runs in second practice were carried out on the soft tyres.

Even if Mercedes look to have the pace to truly fight Ferrari for victory, team principal Toto Wolff is refusing to get ahead of himself and declare his team as race win contenders just yet.

“I would never, after such a season, because we are in the front row call ourselves the favourite,” Wolff said. “I think we need to be humble about the situation. The result genuinely came as a surprise that we are P2 and P5, but fighting for a win is a different story.”

Advert | Become a RaceFans supporter and go ad-free

Ferrari have not had the strongest race pace relative to their rivals through most of the season, with Sainz ultimately being caught by both Red Bulls despite holding onto the lead at the start in the last round at Monza. Even Sainz is remaining cautious as he looks to lead the field away for the second successive start.

“I really have no idea how we’re going to be,” Sainz admitted. “Looking at long run data from Friday. the Mercedes, the Aston Martins and the Red Bull did look a bit quicker than us in tyre degradation and race pace, so it could be that tomorrow we have to run, yet again, a bit of a defensive race.

“I don’t discount that even around this track we could hold on to a P1 because it’s a lot more difficult to pass than other tracks this season. But our race pace still looks like our weakest point.”

No team has had stronger race pace all season long than Red Bull. However, the champions’ struggles are confirmed to be more than superficial. But with all of Verstappen’s experience making his way up the order after starting in the lower half of the field, he seems unusually pessimistic about the idea of making his way to the front on Sunday.

“Normally our car is always a bit better on degradation, maybe to some people around us, but I don’t think that matters a lot in Singapore where it’s very hard to pass,” Verstappen explained. You need to be one-and-a-half, two, three seconds faster which clearly we are not. Also now with the car performance and balance we have, it will be a very tough, long afternoon.”

Sainz may have the benefit of pole, but even with nine cars between him and Verstappen at the start he insists on considering the Red Bull as a threat to be wary of.

“I don’t think you can ever discount Max and Red Bull,” Sainz said. “They might turn up tomorrow with a race pace that they’ve had there all season, and still managed somehow to make through the field. But, for sure, around here, they have a much more difficult task.”

Advert | Become a RaceFans supporter and go ad-free

Mercedes believe they have an ace up their sleeve in the form of an extra unused set of medium tyres – the hope being that it could open up their strategy options during a race where a sudden Safety Car or red flag is as high as it is anywhere on the calendar.

“I think it’s going to be very close between a one and a two-stop,” Russell explained. “With our mediums we can put Ferrari in a difficult position and try and force them into an error and get the upper hand. So that’s what we’re looking for.”

However, Pirelli’s head of motorsport, Mario Isola, does not quite share Mercedes’ perspective on how pit strategy will likely play out over the course of the race. “I believe it’s a one-stop, to be honest,” Isola said. “Because when you lose 27, 28 seconds in the pit lane, it’s difficult to recover this time on track.”

Pirelli expect that teams will shy away from the soft tyre in the race, leaving the vast majority of drivers to start on mediums before a single stop for hard tyres, around a third of the way into the race on lap 20. That is, of course, if the race starts on a dry track. However, the risk of rain that was foreseen earlier in the week has reduced as race day has approached, leaving just a 20% chance of rain for the start of the grand prix.

Even with a slightly shortened track, the Singapore Grand Prix will remain the longest race of the season where the physical challenge to drivers will be at its highest. For once in 2023, it’s genuinely unknown who will cross the line first in the race. But whoever wins, they will have to work very, very hard for it.

“I think it will be a tough race to manage, a tough race to put together,” said pole winner Sainz. “But I think if we nail it, we have a great opportunity. And that’s the target tomorrow, of course.”

Advert | Become a RaceFans supporter and go ad-free

Qualifying times in full

Position	Number	Driver	Team	Q1 time	Q2 time (vs Q1)	Q3 time (vs Q2)
1	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	1’32.339	1’31.439 (-0.900s)	1’30.984 (-0.455s)
2	63	George Russell	Mercedes	1’32.331	1’31.743 (-0.588s)	1’31.056 (-0.687s)
3	16	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	1’32.406	1’32.012 (-0.394s)	1’31.063 (-0.949s)
4	4	Lando Norris	McLaren-Mercedes	1’32.483	1’31.951 (-0.532s)	1’31.270 (-0.681s)
5	44	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	1’32.651	1’32.019 (-0.632s)	1’31.485 (-0.534s)
6	20	Kevin Magnussen	Haas-Ferrari	1’32.242	1’31.892 (-0.350s)	1’31.575 (-0.317s)
7	14	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin-Mercedes	1’32.584	1’31.835 (-0.749s)	1’31.615 (-0.220s)
8	31	Esteban Ocon	Alpine-Renault	1’32.369	1’32.089 (-0.280s)	1’31.673 (-0.416s)
9	27	Nico Hulkenberg	Haas-Ferrari	1’32.100	1’31.994 (-0.106s)	1’31.808 (-0.186s)
10	40	Liam Lawson	AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT	1’32.215	1’32.166 (-0.049s)	1’32.268 (+0.102s)
11	1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull-Honda RBPT	1’32.398	1’32.173 (-0.225s)	Missed by 0.007s
12	10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine-Renault	1’32.452	1’32.274 (-0.178s)	Missed by 0.108s
13	11	Sergio Perez	Red Bull-Honda RBPT	1’32.099	1’32.310 (+0.211s)	Missed by 0.144s
14	23	Alexander Albon	Williams-Mercedes	1’32.668	1’33.719 (+1.051s)	Missed by 1.553s
15	22	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT	1’31.991
16	77	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo-Ferrari	1’32.809	Missed by 0.141s
17	81	Oscar Piastri	McLaren-Mercedes	1’32.902	Missed by 0.234s
18	2	Logan Sargeant	Williams-Mercedes	1’33.252	Missed by 0.584s
19	24	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo-Ferrari	1’33.258	Missed by 0.590s
20	18	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin-Mercedes	1’33.397	Missed by 0.729s

Advert | Become a RaceFans supporter and go ad-free

Sector times

Position	Number	Driver	Sector one	Sector two	Sector three	Ultimate lap	Deficit to ultimate lap
1	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	26.717 (1)	38.477 (3)	25.768 (1)	1’30.962	0.022
2	63	George Russell	26.785 (4)	38.406 (1)	25.865 (3)	1’31.056	–
3	16	Charles Leclerc	26.754 (2)	38.428 (2)	25.881 (4)	1’31.063	–
4	4	Lando Norris	26.756 (3)	38.666 (7)	25.848 (2)	1’31.270	–
5	14	Fernando Alonso	26.915 (5)	38.628 (6)	25.909 (5)	1’31.452	0.163
6	44	Lewis Hamilton	26.924 (6)	38.599 (4)	25.962 (6)	1’31.485	–
7	20	Kevin Magnussen	26.959 (8)	38.606 (5)	26.01 (8)	1’31.575	–
8	31	Esteban Ocon	26.986 (9)	38.703 (8)	25.984 (7)	1’31.673	–
9	27	Nico Hulkenberg	26.926 (7)	38.738 (10)	26.144 (12)	1’31.808	–
10	22	Yuki Tsunoda	27.177 (14)	38.747 (11)	26.067 (11)	1’31.991	–
11	11	Sergio Perez	27.042 (10)	38.814 (12)	26.195 (14)	1’32.051	0.048
12	1	Max Verstappen	27.144 (12)	38.896 (13)	26.022 (9)	1’32.062	0.111
13	40	Liam Lawson	27.285 (18)	38.716 (9)	26.145 (13)	1’32.146	0.020
14	10	Pierre Gasly	27.178 (15)	39.003 (14)	26.022 (9)	1’32.203	0.071
15	23	Alexander Albon	27.131 (11)	39.309 (17)	26.214 (15)	1’32.654	0.014
16	81	Oscar Piastri	27.161 (13)	39.293 (16)	26.242 (16)	1’32.696	0.206
17	77	Valtteri Bottas	27.239 (16)	39.211 (15)	26.359 (17)	1’32.809	–
18	2	Logan Sargeant	27.245 (17)	39.523 (20)	26.466 (18)	1’33.234	0.018
19	24	Zhou Guanyu	27.319 (20)	39.339 (18)	26.6 (20)	1’33.258	–
20	18	Lance Stroll	27.289 (19)	39.507 (19)	26.518 (19)	1’33.314	0.083

Speed trap

Position	Number	Driver	Car	Engine	Model	Max kph (mph)
1	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	Ferrari	SF-23	303.8 (188.8)
2	16	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	Ferrari	SF-23	303.4 (188.5)
3	23	Alexander Albon	Williams	Mercedes	FW45	303.2 (188.4)
4	44	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	Mercedes	W14	303.2 (188.4)
5	18	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	Mercedes	AMR23	303.1 (188.3)
6	11	Sergio Perez	Red Bull	Honda RBPT	RB19	303.0 (188.3)
7	20	Kevin Magnussen	Haas	Ferrari	VF-23	302.6 (188.0)
8	4	Lando Norris	McLaren	Mercedes	MCL60	302.4 (187.9)
9	1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	Honda RBPT	RB19	302.1 (187.7)
10	27	Nico Hulkenberg	Haas	Ferrari	VF-23	302.0 (187.7)
11	14	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	Mercedes	AMR23	301.5 (187.3)
12	81	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	Mercedes	MCL60	301.3 (187.2)
13	2	Logan Sargeant	Williams	Mercedes	FW45	301.2 (187.2)
14	63	George Russell	Mercedes	Mercedes	W14	300.4 (186.7)
15	31	Esteban Ocon	Alpine	Renault	A523	300.2 (186.5)
16	10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine	Renault	A523	299.6 (186.2)
17	24	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo	Ferrari	C43	299.0 (185.8)
18	40	Liam Lawson	AlphaTauri	Honda RBPT	AT04	298.5 (185.5)
19	77	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo	Ferrari	C43	297.8 (185.0)
20	22	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri	Honda RBPT	AT04	297.2 (184.7)

Over to you

Can Verstappen and Red Bull win from 11th on the grid? Which team is best placed to take advantage of their poor starting position?

Share your views on the Singapore Grand Prix in the comments.

2023 Singapore Grand Prix

• Singapore and Austin retirements cost me top 10 championship place – Ocon
• How Ocon’s “extreme” height for an F1 driver is helping other tall racers
• Steward’s admission Verstappen should have had penalty frustrates his rivals
• Drivers back Singapore qualifying tweak as rule changes again for Japanese GP
• Piastri “much more comfortable” at new circuits than at start of rookie season

Browse all 2023 Singapore Grand Prix articles