Will Red Bull be out in front next year?
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To be heist, I again see no reason for Red Bull to be uncompetitive next year. They still have the same fantastic R&D department as this year, they have Renault – who have been torque masters with the V8’s (absolutely crucial with the new engines), they have the luxury of being able to pretty much solely focus on 2014 now (which they started majorly diverted their attention to several races ago), they have Vettel, they may have their wish for harder tyres and they have Adrian Newey with new regulations.
They might not be as dominant or even world champions at all, but I fully expect they will still be in contention for race wins.
Kingshark said
Teams rise and teams fall, simply because Red Bull have enjoyed success in the lawnmower V8 engine era, does not by any means guarantee them success in the V6 Turbo era.Absolutely true. It also does not guarantee by any means that Red Bull will fold-up in 2014 like McLaren did in 1992 or Ferrari in 2005. Different eras, different cars and different personnel.
This kind of threads are a bid pointless =P
We don’t know. We can’t know. We won’t know until next year. It’s not even conjecture, it’s just plain hunch talk.
There is a possibility for every scenario. See McLaren, fastest car last year, nothing this one. See Mercedes, not much last year, second in the WCC atm. Anything could happen.
Derailing the thread a little, but I’m also very interested about Marussia and Caterham. If either team stays at the back with a clear and seemingly unreachable gap to those in front- despite all the teams starting from scratch at once- then I struggle to see them ever progressing. After all, whenever it looks like they’ve made progress in the past it always translated into nothing. This regulation change looks like a chance to either break out or be cemented.
@ Kingshark; so as a Ferrari fan, where do you see them in 2014?
Testing reintroduced.
Engine development reintroduced.
James Allison back at Maranello.
Aero efficiency loses importance.
Mechanical grip gains importance.All these are positive changes for Ferrari. Ferrari excel at developing a car with testing. Likewise, the V8 engine freeze has hurt Ferrari since they cannot use the exhaust as proficiently as teams with Renault engines can (hence you often notice poor traction from Ferrari compared to other Renault powered cars). James Allison is a talented engineer, so his return to Maranello is obviously a big plus. Ferrari’s strengths have always laid in mechanical grip development more so than downforce, so the technical changes for 2014 is also a plus.
The only two mysteries, are perhaps two very big mysteries.
1) How competitive is Ferrari’s V6 Turbo engine and KERS compared to its rivals?
and 2) How will the 2014 Pirelli tyres suit the new Ferrari?Both of these are unfortunately unanswerable at the moment.
Kingshark said :
Aero efficiency loses importance.Yes, but aerodynamics will still be a consideration albeit not as much as now. If other factors that you mention are close, then the car with better aerodynamics could still beat the other not as good. It is not as though the teams have suddenly been given a free hand to do what they want in 2014. The goalposts have been moved around a little but at the end of the day, they ALL have to work within the given framework.
The only two mysteries, are perhaps two very big mysteries.
1) How competitive is Ferrari’s V6 Turbo engine and KERS compared to its rivals?
and 2) How will the 2014 Pirelli tyres suit the new Ferrari?You forget two other factors that IMO will play a crucial part. Weight and Fuel restrictions.
Aero efficiency will, if anything, be much more important in a fuel limited formula, surely?
Hence what seems to have been work by RB in this direction, the RB9 winning in Canada, Belgium and Italy, as they reduce their reliance on exhaust derived downforce.
After the Renault domination inside the Red Bull for the last few years, Mercedes and and perhaps Ferrari be desperate to gain an advantage over the leaders in any way they can. The most obvious factor is the Horsepower but there could be a danger that they chase this advantage too single-mindedly and shoot themselves in the feet in a season where there are going to be quite stringent fuel and weight restrictions. They do not want to be in a position where they have to “manage” the last quarters of most races.
I have a feeling that Aero is going to be more important than what most people believe. What is lost/gained by engine power is likely to be balanced out by aerodynamics. No one will know that better than Newey, who has got his best results with Renault engines.
I agree that this thread is pointless. What I find funny is some people trying to state things nobody could possibly know as fact. The only fact here is that we all know precisely **** all about what will happen next year. And, unless any of you are world class aerodynamic or mechanical engineers, you can’t even make so much as an educated guess. Who knows which engine will be the best? Why? Who could possibly know if Adrian newey will have any advantage? Who even knows it is him that came up with the best Rbr innovations in aerodynamics? Who’s to say it wasn’t their engineer that is leaving for mclaren? Who’s to say that ferraris engine will be any different (better or worse) than the other two? Who can say, with any kind of surety, that ferrari, having Allison and Byrne back, and updated testing facilities, won’t come out as the dominant force out of the box. None of us can know any of this. For all we know, caterham have signed a promising young engineer and will come out and take both titles next year. As incredibly unlikely as that is, you never know. Realistically, until testing starts we will continue to pose ifs and buts, and if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, wed all have a merry christmas. :)
Some of us may know a few details though. It’s not unthinkable that there are a few engineers floating around this forum, perhaps some even work in motorsports, or F1 itself.
Of course it’s pointless, as the most someone will know is a few details regarding one team. But it’s interesting to talk about nevertheless.
F1 engineers have ridiculously strict secrecy clauses and NDAs. It’s crazy to believe any of them would riks their jobs (and freedom) just to post on a random forum.
That option is out of the question, period.
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