Leclerc on pole, Perez leads the Red Bulls but Verstappen is the clear favourite

As an open development championship, the most critical factor that determines where each team ends up at the end of a Formula 1 race weekend is how fast their car is.

With the development race as intense as it has been over the last two seasons since the reintroduction of ground effect aerodynamics, the order has often changed from race to race, as teams bring upgrade packages throughout the season, boosting their performance level just a little bit more with every new part they fit onto the car.

But then, there are race weekends when having a well-designed and carefully-honed chassis is not enough – it’s how the car is set up that makes the most difference on the timing screen. And from the opening two days of the Belgian Grand Prix weekend, it seems that has never been as true this season as it is at Spa-Francorchamps.

At seven kilometres in length, Spa is comfortably the longest circuit on the Formula 1 calendar. Featuring some of the longest flat-out sections of all 22 tracks drivers will race this season and a healthy variety of medium and high-speed corners with a slow hairpin and even a chicane thrown in for good measure, there are a few different approaches that teams can take to the historic Belgian circuit.

With just a single practice session on Friday, teams and drivers were forced to lock in their car configurations and set-ups for the rest of the weekend after an hour of running. To complicate that decision yet further, that session was held in wet weather, with many in the field not even completing a timed lap. As such, there’s been a variety of downforce levels on display this weekend – perhaps the largest variation that will be seen over the 2023 season.

Typically, teams will hone their wing and chassis settings over three practice sessions, but without that luxury on a sprint weekend like this one, drivers had to commit to their set-ups before they had even turned a lap in Friday’s qualifying session. Something that does not sit comfortably for many of the drivers.

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“That’s why I never really enjoy these kinds of weekends, because you just don’t have the time,” Max Verstappen admitted after Friday’s qualifying session for the grand prix.

“I don’t think how advanced everything is in this sport that it should be like that: that on a Friday if you arrive with the wrong set-up, or you make the wrong call after FP1 that you’re stuck with it for the rest of the weekend, which basically also happened for us in in Brazil last year. It’s just super-painful.”

Although it was evident from the Friday afternoon qualifying session which set the order for Sunday’s Grand Prix, the two sprint sessions on Saturday demonstrated the different approaches to set up at the front of the field particularly clearly. There was no better example than at the Safety Car restart of the sprint race, when Oscar Piastri led the field away in his McLaren but was quickly swallowed up by Verstappen behind him as they crested the hill onto the Kemmel Straight.

With no DRS, just a conventional slipstream, Verstappen was over 15kph faster than the McLaren as he pulled out to overtake him, reflecting not only the natural raw speed of the Red Bull but also how much more drag the McLaren had from its higher-downforce set-up. It was evident even in qualifying earlier in the day, as Piastri and team mate Lando Norris were comfortably the quickest in the middle sector of the lap, which places much higher demands on cornering than the first and third sectors. But despite being passed so easily, Piastri is still satisfied that McLaren made the right call on their set-up.

“It’s very easy to say, ‘oh we should have run less wing’ but it’s not quite as simple as that,” he explained. “Some people’s cars work better at different downforce levels and when you’ve got one lap on inters in practice to see where everybody is, it’s pretty difficult to make decisions for the rest of the weekend. So I think we did the right call for what we could for our car.”

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes have taken a much lower drag approach, down to him having a conspicuously slimmer rear wing than team mate George Russell. That gave Hamilton the benefit of around 5-7kph faster at the end of the straights compared to Russell during the sprint race, with the trade-off being that Hamilton was regularly having to lift off the throttle slightly into Eau Rouge and Blanchimont, while Russell could take those flat-out even in the damp intermediate conditions.

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For the grand prix, however, neither Mercedes nor McLaren will be on the front row. That privilege will go to Charles Leclerc in the Ferrari and Sergio Perez alongside him. Although starting from the best possible position, Leclerc admitted on Friday he expected a “very tricky” grand prix. He was not thrilled with fifth in the sprint race, but he was at least comfortable with how his car had felt over the 11 laps.

“I was pretty happy in the race today,” he told media including RaceFans after the race. “There was a lot of overheating – I think it was a case for everybody, but we need to look into it. Especially if we find ourselves in those conditions tomorrow in order to make a step forward.”

Perez alongside will start on the front row for a grand prix for the first time since Miami seven rounds ago – coincidentally the last time he started ahead of his team mate on the grid. While his sprint race saw him struggling to match his team mate’s pace until contact with Hamilton put him out, Perez is eager to extend Red Bull’s record run of victories by breaking his team mate’s current streak.

“I will try my best,” he said. “I will try to get Charles at the start, which is always hard, but I think it’s also a long race, high deg. So anything can happen on Sunday, but we certainly have a good position.”

But Verstappen remains the favourite for a reason. Winning the sprint from pole was little surprise, but after he won at this very track from 14th on the grid a year ago, the prospect of him repeating that feat from sixth place feels easily within his abilities. Especially when his own car set-up appeared to suit the damp and drying conditions well on Saturday.

“We knew already over one lap we were anyway not bad, but also in the race it seemed like we were quite good on keeping the tyres alive,” Verstappen explained. So hopefully, we can do the same tomorrow if it’s dry.

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“Of course, I’m starting a bit further back. I need to be careful to not have any damage on the car. And as soon as I have a clean lap one, I think from there onwards we can move forwards.”

All four sessions so far this weekend have required a wet tyre of either variety, but while there is a risk that the grand prix could be affected by rain, it currently sits at a 40% chance – meaning it’s slightly more likely to remain dry than it is to see rain during the race. But at Spa, that can never be taken for granted.

If it does remain dry, Pirelli predict that there will be little difference between one and two-stop strategies. However, that is based on only theoretical data, as there have so far been zero high-fuel running on the dry compounds to base any calls on. Last year, using the same three compounds of C2, C3 and C4, there were three different strategies in the top three positions. Winner Verstappen started on softs to help cut through the traffic in the early laps before running two stints on mediums, while Perez ran mediums for his first two stints before fitting hard tyres for his final stint. None of the drivers in last year’s race attempted a one-stop strategy.

But with fewer cars to get by on his way to the front, Verstappen knows he can afford to play it conservatively on Sunday – especially during the start of the race.

“I need to pass a few cars, so I think the biggest risk is just lap one, turn one,” he explained. “Everything is always very tricky there.

“As long as we stay out of trouble, I think we’ll have a quick car.”

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Qualifying times in full

Position	Number	Driver	Team	Q1 time	Q2 time (vs Q1)	Q3 time (vs Q2)
1	1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull-Honda RBPT	1’58.515	1’52.784 (-5.731s)	1’46.168 (-6.616s)
2	16	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	1’58.300	1’52.017 (-6.283s)	1’46.988 (-5.029s)
3	11	Sergio Perez	Red Bull-Honda RBPT	1’58.899	1’52.353 (-6.546s)	1’47.045 (-5.308s)
4	44	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	1’58.563	1’52.345 (-6.218s)	1’47.087 (-5.258s)
5	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	1’58.688	1’51.711 (-6.977s)	1’47.152 (-4.559s)
6	81	Oscar Piastri	McLaren-Mercedes	1’58.872	1’51.534 (-7.338s)	1’47.365 (-4.169s)
7	4	Lando Norris	McLaren-Mercedes	1’59.981	1’52.252 (-7.729s)	1’47.669 (-4.583s)
8	63	George Russell	Mercedes	1’59.035	1’52.605 (-6.430s)	1’47.805 (-4.800s)
9	14	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin-Mercedes	1’58.834	1’52.751 (-6.083s)	1’47.843 (-4.908s)
10	18	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin-Mercedes	1’59.663	1’52.193 (-7.470s)	1’48.841 (-3.352s)
11	22	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT	1’59.044	1’53.148 (-5.896s)	Missed by 0.364s
12	10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine-Renault	1’59.511	1’53.671 (-5.840s)	Missed by 0.887s
13	20	Kevin Magnussen	Haas-Ferrari	2’00.020	1’54.160 (-5.860s)	Missed by 1.376s
14	77	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo-Ferrari	1’59.484	1’54.694 (-4.790s)	Missed by 1.910s
15	31	Esteban Ocon	Alpine-Renault	1’59.634	1’56.372 (-3.262s)	Missed by 3.588s
16	23	Alexander Albon	Williams-Mercedes	2’00.314	Missed by 0.294s
17	24	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo-Ferrari	2’00.832	Missed by 0.812s
18	2	Logan Sargeant	Williams-Mercedes	2’01.535	Missed by 1.515s
19	3	Daniel Ricciardo	AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT	2’02.159	Missed by 2.139s
20	27	Nico Hulkenberg	Haas-Ferrari	2’03.166	Missed by 3.146s

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Sector times

Position	Number	Driver	Sector one	Sector two	Sector three	Ultimate lap	Deficit to ultimate lap
1	1	Max Verstappen	31.204 (1)	45.697 (1)	29.267 (3)	1’46.168	–
2	16	Charles Leclerc	31.287 (3)	46.4 (3)	29.301 (4)	1’46.988	–
3	11	Sergio Perez	31.336 (5)	46.445 (5)	29.264 (2)	1’47.045	–
4	44	Lewis Hamilton	31.336 (5)	46.505 (6)	29.246 (1)	1’47.087	–
5	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	31.317 (4)	46.515 (7)	29.32 (5)	1’47.152	–
6	81	Oscar Piastri	31.799 (10)	45.852 (2)	29.673 (9)	1’47.324	0.041
7	4	Lando Norris	31.617 (7)	46.417 (4)	29.635 (8)	1’47.669	–
8	63	George Russell	31.63 (8)	46.737 (8)	29.438 (6)	1’47.805	–
9	14	Fernando Alonso	31.24 (2)	47.017 (9)	29.586 (7)	1’47.843	–
10	18	Lance Stroll	31.662 (9)	47.369 (10)	29.81 (10)	1’48.841	–
11	22	Yuki Tsunoda	32.404 (12)	50.88 (11)	29.864 (11)	1’53.148	–
12	10	Pierre Gasly	32.293 (11)	51.282 (12)	30.096 (12)	1’53.671	–
13	20	Kevin Magnussen	32.514 (13)	51.443 (14)	30.203 (13)	1’54.160	–
14	77	Valtteri Bottas	32.822 (15)	51.437 (13)	30.435 (14)	1’54.694	–
15	31	Esteban Ocon	32.641 (14)	52.23 (15)	31.501 (16)	1’56.372	–
16	3	Daniel Ricciardo	33.288 (18)	54.976 (16)	31.219 (15)	1’59.483	2.676
17	23	Alexander Albon	33.22 (17)	55.436 (17)	31.508 (17)	2’00.164	0.150
18	24	Zhou Guanyu	33.071 (16)	55.483 (18)	31.836 (18)	2’00.390	0.442
19	2	Logan Sargeant	33.356 (19)	56.273 (19)	31.906 (19)	2’01.535	–
20	27	Nico Hulkenberg	33.664 (20)	56.741 (20)	32.449 (20)	2’02.854	0.312

Speed trap

Position	Number	Driver	Car	Engine	Model	Max kph (mph)
1	44	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	Mercedes	W14	313.4 (194.7)
2	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	Ferrari	SF-23	311.7 (193.7)
3	14	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	Mercedes	AMR23	309.8 (192.5)
4	10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine	Renault	A523	309.3 (192.2)
5	16	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	Ferrari	SF-23	309.1 (192.1)
6	63	George Russell	Mercedes	Mercedes	W14	308.7 (191.8)
7	31	Esteban Ocon	Alpine	Renault	A523	308.3 (191.6)
8	11	Sergio Perez	Red Bull	Honda RBPT	RB19	307.9 (191.3)
9	22	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri	Honda RBPT	AT04	307.6 (191.1)
10	1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	Honda RBPT	RB19	307.2 (190.9)
11	20	Kevin Magnussen	Haas	Ferrari	VF-23	305.7 (190.0)
12	23	Alexander Albon	Williams	Mercedes	FW45	305.6 (189.9)
13	4	Lando Norris	McLaren	Mercedes	MCL60	305.4 (189.8)
14	18	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	Mercedes	AMR23	305.3 (189.7)
15	81	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	Mercedes	MCL60	304.4 (189.1)
16	24	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo	Ferrari	C43	298.9 (185.7)
17	3	Daniel Ricciardo	AlphaTauri	Honda RBPT	AT04	297.1 (184.6)
18	77	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo	Ferrari	C43	294.6 (183.1)
19	2	Logan Sargeant	Williams	Mercedes	FW45	293.1 (182.1)
20	27	Nico Hulkenberg	Haas	Ferrari	VF-23	290.6 (180.6)

Over to you

Does Perez have a hope of keeping Verstappen behind? Are Ferrari fast enough to lead the charge against Red Bull?

Share your views on the Belgian Grand Prix in the comments.

2023 Belgian Grand Prix

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