Grosjean, Herta, McLaren – who most needs a win in rare ‘dead rubber’ IndyCar finale?

Last week, Alex Palou became the first driver to win the IndyCar championship – in its current guise – before the season finale.

Palou has already done a round of celebratory photoshoots this week with the Astor Challenge Cup, the historic trophy given to IndyCar’s champion. He can coast through this weekend’s race at Laguna Seca Raceway knowing that his champion status and long-term future at Chip Ganassi Racing both appear to be secure. At least, the first part is definitively secure.

Scott Dixon, the closest man in the championship table behind Palou, is also guaranteed to finish second in the standings. Dixon is 56 points ahead of his nearest rival in the table with a maximum of 54 points available this weekend (50 for the race winner, plus bonus points for laps led and pole position).

But while this may be a rare ‘dead rubber’ race for IndyCar, there are plenty of drivers and teams with much to gain this weekend.

The battle for third

Indianapolis 500 winner and two-time IndyCar champion Josef Newgarden was at one point the biggest threat to Palou’s chances of becoming champion. Now at least the American’s run of three straight championship runner-up finishes will end – just not in the way that he’d hoped.

He’ll now have to hang on tight just to avoid dropping out of the top three, as he leads McLaren driver Pato O’Ward by just five points in the race for third in the championship. Newgarden has been dynamite on ovals this year, apart from his crash at Gateway, but the man who’s won eight times on permanent road courses throughout his career has an average finishing of 11th at the six previous permanent road races this year. In contrast, O’Ward has averaged a fourth-place finish through those same six races with three podiums.

Should both drivers falter, Newgarden’s team mate Scott McLaughlin is poised to pick up the pieces. He’s only 22 points behind Newgarden and is Penske’s only winner on a permanent road course this year, having triumphed at Barber Motorsports Park ahead of O’Ward.

Between all three drivers, Newgarden is the only driver that’s finished on the podium at Laguna Seca in an IndyCar. He finished second last year after starting 25th. McLaughlin finished sixth last year, and O’Ward was fifth two years ago.

Rookie of the Year

Two years ago, Romain Grosjean fell short of winning Rookie of the Year honours at Dale Coyne Racing, despite being excellent enough on road and street courses to almost make up the difference in voluntarily skipping all but one oval race. McLaughlin, while not yet at his best at an IndyCar, won the title on the strength of being present at every round in 2021.

Fast forward to 2023 and Marcus Armstrong, recently secured on a multi-year, full-season deal at Ganassi for 2024 and beyond, should be able to win Rookie of the Year honours with ease despite a similar road-and-street-only programme to Grosjean in 2021.

In fairness, this year’s full-season rookie crop may sadly go down as one of the weakest. Only Agustin Canapino has any chance of catching Armstrong, but the four-time Turismo Carretera champion turned IndyCar driver has a 26-point deficit and hasn’t finished higher than 12th all season – a result that only pays 18 points on its own.

Plus, Canapino may be racing for his future in the sport as part of the last big championship sub-plot of 2023…

The last places in the Leaders Circle

Every car that finishes in the top 22 in the entrant’s championship will qualify for the IndyCar Leaders Circle in 2024. This perk comes with a $910,000 (£729,000) bonus prize, a six-figure sum that could make the difference between a team cutting entries next season or not, a team requiring a paying driver or not, or between drivers racing next year or not.

The financial bonus is not insignificant. As we saw in F1 in the early 2010s, a top 10 finish in the constructors’ championship has often saved teams from extinction.

Five cars will battle for the final two positions in the 2024 Leaders Circle at Laguna Seca. Ed Carpenter Racing’s number 20 car is seven points above safety but hasn’t finished in the top 10 since Conor Daly was dropped for Ryan Hunter-Reay after Detroit. The number 30 Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing, originally driven by Jack Harvey, car is ‘on the bubble’ in 22nd. RLL also changed drivers late this season and Juri Vips will make his second start this weekend.

Andretti’s number 29 car, co-owned by George Steinbrenner IV, is three points back. If the outgoing Devlin DeFrancesco can’t get this car into the top 22, Andretti may downsize to just three full-time cars in 2024, unless they bring in another paying driver.

The number 60 Meyer Shank Racing car is another three points behind. IMSA premier class champion Tom Blomqvist is signed and secured for next season so this car will be here no matter what – for Blomqvist, this is a matter of ensuring his transition to IndyCar in 2024 starts on the right foot.

And then there’s the number 78 Juncos Hollinger Racing car of Canapino, eight points away from the cut line. His IndyCar future may be riding on the result of this race.

Drivers – and teams – who need a win

Some drivers this season have not won a race, including two-time series champion Will Power, who clinched his second Astor Cup last year at Laguna Seca. He returns to Laguna Seca hoping to maintain the second-longest streak of consecutive seasons with at least one race win – currently standing at 16 seasons since 2007 – and to do so, he’ll have to do it at a track that he’s not yet won at.

But Power isn’t the only driver that could really use a win. All three full-time McLaren drivers – O’Ward, Alexander Rossi and MSR-bound Felix Rosenqvist – haven’t won a race this year. It would be a stunning result for the mightiest and most ambitious disruptor in IndyCar to finish the season without a single race victory to its name.

Colton Herta, meanwhile, has not won an IndyCar race since last May at the Indianapolis Grand Prix – and not since he was heavily rumoured to transfer to F1 this year in an arrangement that fell through. The good news for Herta is that he has two pole-to-win victories at Laguna Seca (2019, 2021), and he’ll be extra-motivated to win in a special livery resembling the one his father Bryan sported when he won his first CART race at this track 25 years ago.

Then there’s the case of Romain Grosjean. Brilliant at times, baffling at others, his three years in IndyCar have served as a microcosm of his decade in F1. He’s already announced his departure from Andretti after two frustrating seasons, and the difference between him staying in the series in 2024 or choosing to call time on his single-seater career could be a win in his last start in the number 28 car.

IndyCar

• “Dominant” Palou has proved he deserves F1 chance – Sainz
• How to watch the IndyCar and WEC season-openers this weekend
• “No doubt” Herta is quick enough for Formula 1 – Ericsson
• Andretti confirms he’s stepping down in charge of racing team
• Ilott gets first seat in Prema’s new IndyCar team

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