Analysis: Why Red Bull believe Verstappen could have been “right in the game”

Red Bull went into the Singapore Grand Prix mystified by their poor showing in qualifying which left both their drivers outside the top ten.

But during the race they began to unpick the puzzle of the RB19’s apparent incompatibility with the Marina Bay street circuit. As the night wore on the car’s performance improved relative to its rivals and Red Bull team principal Christian Horner was left wondering what might have been had the cards fallen in their favour.

“We understood a lot more in the race and the pace of the car came much more back to what we expected,” he explained. “Coming here we expected to have closer competition but I think it took us a bit by surprise just how far out we were on Friday.

“We were just not in the right operating window for the car, particularly over a single lap. When you’re not there then the tyres feel horrible, everything just doesn’t work. So, I think we got a very good steer in the race.”

Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez both started the race on hard compound tyres. With drivers ahead of them on softer rubber, Red Bull were hoping a Safety Car appearance would help them save time during the inevitable pit stop. That all hinged on the Safety Car appearing at the right moment, but unfortunately for Red Bull, it did not.

“Unfortunately, in the race, by starting on the hard we took, if you like, a strategic gamble, and the best way of that race paying us off is if you get an early Safety Car or a Safety Car sort of later into the race. Now, the lap that the safety car came out in was probably strategically the worst possible lap for the strategy that we were on because it gave the cars ahead of us a free stop.”

Virtually the entire field took the opportunity to pit on lap 20 during the Safety Car, but Verstappan and Perez stayed out. That moved them up to 2nd and 4th places respectively, but within half a dozen laps of the restart several of their fresh tired rivals had passed and the pair were back in sixth and seventh.

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“Whilst giving us track position, it made us take the restart with tyres that are very hard to heat up again, having done well over 20 laps. So then Max was obviously picked off by the guys that had the free stop.”

Red Bull’s hopes another Safety Car period would allow them to change tyres with minimal time loss were dashed and the pair had to change tyres during green flag running. “We were another 23 seconds behind with that,” said Horner.

Having seen his drivers fall to 15th and 17th with 21 laps to go, Horner was encouraged by the progress they made after switching to the medium tyre compound. Verstappen even reeled in Charles Leclerc ailing Ferrari and needed only one more lap to pass him when the chequered flag dropped.

“All considered, the recovery that we had and the pace that we had, particularly in the latter part of the race to be 0.2s behind Charles at the finish line was a strong race.”

At the front of the field Carlos Sainz Jnr was keen to contain the threat of quicker drivers behind such as George Russell, and deprive him of an opportunity to attack through an early pit stop. He kept the pace so low that after Zhou Guanyu pitted on lap two he lapped seven tenths of a second quicker than the leaders shortly afterwards.

Given the relatively slow pace at which the race was run, Horner believes Verstappen could have finished even higher up had the Safety Car periods not landed quite so inconveniently for them. This was not foreseen by their strategy simulations ahead of the race as their pace turned out to be better than expected.

“Our pre-race simulations were saying about P7,” Horner explained. “But that’s in a standard race.

“I think ironically enough, if we’d had a standard race, the strategy that we had with Carlos holding the front up because of the deg on those hard tyres, Max would have definitely come into play with the pace that he had at the end of the race.

“When you look at the distance, the delta that he was off the leaders by the end of it, if you take away that the delta for the free stop suddenly bang, he’s right in the game.”

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2023 Singapore Grand Prix lap chart

The positions of each driver on every lap. Click name to highlight, right-click to reset. Toggle drivers using controls below:

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2023 Singapore Grand Prix race chart

The gaps between each driver on every lap compared to the leader’s average lap time. Very large gaps omitted. Scroll to zoom, drag to pan and right-click to reset. Toggle drivers using controls below:

2023 Singapore Grand Prix lap times

All the lap times by the drivers (in seconds, very slow laps excluded). Scroll to zoom, drag to pan and toggle drivers using the control below:

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2023 Singapore Grand Prix fastest laps

Each driver’s fastest lap:

Rank	No.	Driver	Car	Lap time	Gap	Average speed (kph)	Lap no.
1	44	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	1’35.867		185.51	47
2	63	George Russell	Mercedes	1’36.273	0.406	184.72	46
3	14	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin-Mercedes	1’36.456	0.589	184.37	47
4	1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull-Honda RBPT	1’36.575	0.708	184.15	61
5	11	Sergio Perez	Red Bull-Honda RBPT	1’37.108	1.241	183.14	61
6	23	Alexander Albon	Williams-Mercedes	1’37.342	1.475	182.7	46
7	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	1’37.666	1.799	182.09	47
8	4	Lando Norris	McLaren-Mercedes	1’38.046	2.179	181.38	46
9	77	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo-Ferrari	1’38.075	2.208	181.33	51
10	20	Kevin Magnussen	Haas-Ferrari	1’38.107	2.240	181.27	48
11	16	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	1’38.275	2.408	180.96	46
12	10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine-Renault	1’38.277	2.410	180.96	46
13	81	Oscar Piastri	McLaren-Mercedes	1’38.492	2.625	180.56	46
14	2	Logan Sargeant	Williams-Mercedes	1’38.531	2.664	180.49	45
15	40	Liam Lawson	AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT	1’39.028	3.161	179.59	47
16	24	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo-Ferrari	1’39.316	3.449	179.06	46
17	27	Nico Hulkenberg	Haas-Ferrari	1’39.923	4.056	177.98	50
18	31	Esteban Ocon	Alpine-Renault	1’39.930	4.063	177.96	33

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2023 Singapore Grand Prix tyre strategies

The tyre strategies for each driver:

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2023 Singapore Grand Prix pit stop times

How long each driver’s pit stops took:

Rank	No.	Driver	Team	Complete stop time (s)	Gap to best (s)	Stop no.	Lap no.
1	11	Sergio Perez	Red Bull	28.977		1	39
2	81	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	29.369	0.392	1	20
3	4	Lando Norris	McLaren	29.485	0.508	1	20
4	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	29.499	0.522	1	20
5	1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	29.698	0.721	1	40
6	31	Esteban Ocon	Alpine	29.755	0.778	1	20
7	23	Alexander Albon	Williams	29.787	0.81	2	43
8	63	George Russell	Mercedes	29.976	0.999	1	20
9	24	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo	30.032	1.055	1	2
10	63	George Russell	Mercedes	30.039	1.062	2	44
11	23	Alexander Albon	Williams	30.138	1.161	1	20
12	77	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo	30.487	1.51	1	40
13	24	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo	30.637	1.66	2	20
14	14	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	30.67	1.693	1	20
15	2	Logan Sargeant	Williams	31.018	2.041	2	43
16	20	Kevin Magnussen	Haas	31.475	2.498	1	20
17	10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine	31.802	2.825	1	20
18	40	Liam Lawson	AlphaTauri	32.348	3.371	1	20
19	44	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	32.631	3.654	1	20
20	16	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	32.888	3.911	1	20
21	20	Kevin Magnussen	Haas	33.078	4.101	2	43
22	44	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	33.581	4.604	2	44
23	27	Nico Hulkenberg	Haas	35.497	6.52	1	20
24	14	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	52.708	23.731	2	44

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