Analysis: Why Red Bull believe Verstappen could have been “right in the game”

Formula 1

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Red Bull went into the Singapore Grand Prix mystified by their poor showing in qualifying which left both their drivers outside the top ten.

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But during the race they began to unpick the puzzle of the RB19’s apparent incompatibility with the Marina Bay street circuit. As the night wore on the car’s performance improved relative to its rivals and Red Bull team principal Christian Horner was left wondering what might have been had the cards fallen in their favour.

“We understood a lot more in the race and the pace of the car came much more back to what we expected,” he explained. “Coming here we expected to have closer competition but I think it took us a bit by surprise just how far out we were on Friday.

“We were just not in the right operating window for the car, particularly over a single lap. When you’re not there then the tyres feel horrible, everything just doesn’t work. So, I think we got a very good steer in the race.”

Max Verstappen, Red Bull, Singapore, 2023
Red Bull weren’t able to pit during a Safety Car period
Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez both started the race on hard compound tyres. With drivers ahead of them on softer rubber, Red Bull were hoping a Safety Car appearance would help them save time during the inevitable pit stop. That all hinged on the Safety Car appearing at the right moment, but unfortunately for Red Bull, it did not.

“Unfortunately, in the race, by starting on the hard we took, if you like, a strategic gamble, and the best way of that race paying us off is if you get an early Safety Car or a Safety Car sort of later into the race. Now, the lap that the safety car came out in was probably strategically the worst possible lap for the strategy that we were on because it gave the cars ahead of us a free stop.”

Virtually the entire field took the opportunity to pit on lap 20 during the Safety Car, but Verstappan and Perez stayed out. That moved them up to 2nd and 4th places respectively, but within half a dozen laps of the restart several of their fresh tired rivals had passed and the pair were back in sixth and seventh.

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“Whilst giving us track position, it made us take the restart with tyres that are very hard to heat up again, having done well over 20 laps. So then Max was obviously picked off by the guys that had the free stop.”

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Singapore, 2023
Leclerc’s pace dropped off badly at the end
Red Bull’s hopes another Safety Car period would allow them to change tyres with minimal time loss were dashed and the pair had to change tyres during green flag running. “We were another 23 seconds behind with that,” said Horner.

Having seen his drivers fall to 15th and 17th with 21 laps to go, Horner was encouraged by the progress they made after switching to the medium tyre compound. Verstappen even reeled in Charles Leclerc ailing Ferrari and needed only one more lap to pass him when the chequered flag dropped.

“All considered, the recovery that we had and the pace that we had, particularly in the latter part of the race to be 0.2s behind Charles at the finish line was a strong race.”

At the front of the field Carlos Sainz Jnr was keen to contain the threat of quicker drivers behind such as George Russell, and deprive him of an opportunity to attack through an early pit stop. He kept the pace so low that after Zhou Guanyu pitted on lap two he lapped seven tenths of a second quicker than the leaders shortly afterwards.

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Given the relatively slow pace at which the race was run, Horner believes Verstappen could have finished even higher up had the Safety Car periods not landed quite so inconveniently for them. This was not foreseen by their strategy simulations ahead of the race as their pace turned out to be better than expected.

“Our pre-race simulations were saying about P7,” Horner explained. “But that’s in a standard race.

“I think ironically enough, if we’d had a standard race, the strategy that we had with Carlos holding the front up because of the deg on those hard tyres, Max would have definitely come into play with the pace that he had at the end of the race.

“When you look at the distance, the delta that he was off the leaders by the end of it, if you take away that the delta for the free stop suddenly bang, he’s right in the game.”

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2023 Singapore Grand Prix lap chart

The positions of each driver on every lap. Click name to highlight, right-click to reset. Toggle drivers using controls below:

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2023 Singapore Grand Prix race chart

The gaps between each driver on every lap compared to the leader’s average lap time. Very large gaps omitted. Scroll to zoom, drag to pan and right-click to reset. Toggle drivers using controls below:

2023 Singapore Grand Prix lap times

All the lap times by the drivers (in seconds, very slow laps excluded). Scroll to zoom, drag to pan and toggle drivers using the control below:

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2023 Singapore Grand Prix fastest laps

Each driver’s fastest lap:

Rank No. Driver Car Lap time Gap Average speed (kph) Lap no.
1 44 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1’35.867 185.51 47
2 63 George Russell Mercedes 1’36.273 0.406 184.72 46
3 14 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin-Mercedes 1’36.456 0.589 184.37 47
4 1 Max Verstappen Red Bull-Honda RBPT 1’36.575 0.708 184.15 61
5 11 Sergio Perez Red Bull-Honda RBPT 1’37.108 1.241 183.14 61
6 23 Alexander Albon Williams-Mercedes 1’37.342 1.475 182.7 46
7 55 Carlos Sainz Jnr Ferrari 1’37.666 1.799 182.09 47
8 4 Lando Norris McLaren-Mercedes 1’38.046 2.179 181.38 46
9 77 Valtteri Bottas Alfa Romeo-Ferrari 1’38.075 2.208 181.33 51
10 20 Kevin Magnussen Haas-Ferrari 1’38.107 2.240 181.27 48
11 16 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 1’38.275 2.408 180.96 46
12 10 Pierre Gasly Alpine-Renault 1’38.277 2.410 180.96 46
13 81 Oscar Piastri McLaren-Mercedes 1’38.492 2.625 180.56 46
14 2 Logan Sargeant Williams-Mercedes 1’38.531 2.664 180.49 45
15 40 Liam Lawson AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT 1’39.028 3.161 179.59 47
16 24 Zhou Guanyu Alfa Romeo-Ferrari 1’39.316 3.449 179.06 46
17 27 Nico Hulkenberg Haas-Ferrari 1’39.923 4.056 177.98 50
18 31 Esteban Ocon Alpine-Renault 1’39.930 4.063 177.96 33

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2023 Singapore Grand Prix tyre strategies

The tyre strategies for each driver:

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2023 Singapore Grand Prix pit stop times

How long each driver’s pit stops took:

Rank No. Driver Team Complete stop time (s) Gap to best (s) Stop no. Lap no.
1 11 Sergio Perez Red Bull 28.977 1 39
2 81 Oscar Piastri McLaren 29.369 0.392 1 20
3 4 Lando Norris McLaren 29.485 0.508 1 20
4 55 Carlos Sainz Jnr Ferrari 29.499 0.522 1 20
5 1 Max Verstappen Red Bull 29.698 0.721 1 40
6 31 Esteban Ocon Alpine 29.755 0.778 1 20
7 23 Alexander Albon Williams 29.787 0.81 2 43
8 63 George Russell Mercedes 29.976 0.999 1 20
9 24 Zhou Guanyu Alfa Romeo 30.032 1.055 1 2
10 63 George Russell Mercedes 30.039 1.062 2 44
11 23 Alexander Albon Williams 30.138 1.161 1 20
12 77 Valtteri Bottas Alfa Romeo 30.487 1.51 1 40
13 24 Zhou Guanyu Alfa Romeo 30.637 1.66 2 20
14 14 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin 30.67 1.693 1 20
15 2 Logan Sargeant Williams 31.018 2.041 2 43
16 20 Kevin Magnussen Haas 31.475 2.498 1 20
17 10 Pierre Gasly Alpine 31.802 2.825 1 20
18 40 Liam Lawson AlphaTauri 32.348 3.371 1 20
19 44 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 32.631 3.654 1 20
20 16 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 32.888 3.911 1 20
21 20 Kevin Magnussen Haas 33.078 4.101 2 43
22 44 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 33.581 4.604 2 44
23 27 Nico Hulkenberg Haas 35.497 6.52 1 20
24 14 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin 52.708 23.731 2 44

2023 Singapore Grand Prix

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Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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16 comments on “Analysis: Why Red Bull believe Verstappen could have been “right in the game””

  1. Aquila_GD
    18th September 2023, 0:33

    Lewis was on fire on that last stint. To claw a 5 second deficit to his team mate on the same tyre life was just epic.
    Super drive.

    1. w0o0dy
      18th September 2023, 6:44

      Max was actually even faster relative to Hamilton on the mediums. From 28 s behind the lead he finished about 4 or 5 seconds off… shame we never got to see him fight the top cars.

      1. I have an opinion
        18th September 2023, 7:36

        X – Doubt.
        Look at MV’s and LH’s lines on the lap times graph, and their positions on the fastest laps table.

      2. satellite
        18th September 2023, 8:13

        Verstappen finished 21 seconds behind the winner, not 5 seconds.

      3. George.be
        20th September 2023, 12:34

        No Max wasn’t, but he was close in laptime while cutting trough the field (5 passes, while Lewis was in clean air)

  2. Profile Photo

    MacLeod (@macleod)
    18th September 2023, 7:38

    Sometimes you have the luck of a safetycar and sometimes you don’t…. Nothing lost Max can Win everything again for the rest of the season and next season.

    1. Alan S Thomson
      19th September 2023, 0:31

      The idea that any team can score a perfect season is laughable. Nobody has ever done it before and nobody will ever do it.

      1. George.be
        20th September 2023, 12:35

        Watch what you’re saying… Maybe next year someone will say “hold my beer”

  3. osnola
    18th September 2023, 10:58

    Interesting to see the fastest car did not win this race.
    The race pace of the Mercedes was blistering but they were unable to collect the win.
    Pure strategic brilliance by Sainz , great work.
    And a pity Lewis pushed Russell so hard and did not even tried to attack Norris when he had his chance .

    1. Profile Photo

      MadMax (@madmax)
      18th September 2023, 12:26

      The fastest cars unable driver finished P5

      1. Kelly
        18th September 2023, 12:32

        Kvyat, is that you?

    2. Edvaldo
      18th September 2023, 13:56

      Do you realize Hamilton had less than half a lap to attack Norris?
      It’s hard to believe some things we get to read on the internet.

      1. Aquila_GD
        18th September 2023, 16:39

        You can say that again

      2. melanos
        20th September 2023, 1:08

        What, Sir should have been able to pass Lando in a Nissan Micra. Or moonwalking.

  4. Ferdinand
    18th September 2023, 12:30

    Having seen his drivers fall to 15th and 17th with 21 laps to go, Horner was encouraged by the progress they made after switching to the medium tyre compound. Verstappen even reeled in Charles Leclerc

    This was indeed very strong and impressive again from Verstappen. Understandable not highlighted given all the other firework going on at the front but nevertheless impressive once again, especially given the poor drivability of the car.

  5. Señor Sjon
    18th September 2023, 14:53

    RB was very unlucky with the first SC and I was surprised the hards never returned to their pre SC pace. If Ocon’s Alpine failed just 3 laps earlier, Verstappen would have gotten the VSC stop, saving him 13s of pitlane time. That would have brought him about 8s behind Sainz in the end.

    If it wasn’t for the last lap yellow (not Russell), Verstappen probably could have passed Leclerc as well.

    This track needs a faster pitlane. 28s makes it a guaranteed onestopper.

Comments are closed.