Moments after crossing the line to secure fourth place in the sprint race for the Brazilian Grand Prix, George Russell had to satisfy his curiosity about the pace of his rivals ahead.
“What was the pace of Max and Lando at the end?,” he asked.“Max at the end was doing 14.8, 14.7,” Russell’s race engineer Marcus Dudley replied. “And Norris…”
“FOURTEEN eight?,” Russell interrupted, aghast. “Wowser. Okay…”
In many ways, that single exchange summed up the 2023 season. Once again, Max Verstappen and Red Bull were simply able to do what no one else on the grid could hope to emulate. Once again, his rivals were left staring at the seemingly impossible task of finding some way of catching him.
Russell’s shock at Verstappen’s pace at the end of the sprint race could also reflect how strong Verstappen seemed at a circuit that has been far from Red Bull’s strongest. The champions have won in Sao Paulo only once in the last eight attempts and infamously struggled here last year after they found themselves locked into a set-up that did not allow them to get the best out of their car. But from the evidence presented on Saturday, it’s clear Red Bull have avoided falling into that same trap a second time.
But even if Verstappen looked to be in control of things out front over the 24-lap sprint race, Lando Norris was keeping him honest – especially through the high speed, uphill right-hand sweep of Ferradura. Throughout the race, Norris kept Verstappen in sight and was even quicker than the winner through many of the middle laps, but Verstappen’s ability to hold onto his tyres and increase the pace even while those behind him were seeing their lap times start to fall away leaves the prospect of Norris keeping up through an entire grand prix a remote one.
But what harms Norris’s chances of victory more than anything will be his sixth place starting position. Thanks to another memorable finish to a grand prix qualifying session in Brazil, Verstappen has pole but will instead have Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari for company at the start.
Ferrari’s race pace in the sprint would hardly have struck fear into Red Bull’s hearts, but Leclerc had spent the entire race on managing his car’s temperatures as well as his tyres. Fortunately for Ferrari, the grand prix is forecast to be cooler than Saturday’s sprint and should allow Leclerc and team mate Carlos Sainz Jnr to push more.
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Ferrari also have the benefit of something many of their rivals do not have – a fresh set of soft tyres to use. Having deliberately avoided using their last new set of soft tyres in Saturday’s sprint sessions, Leclerc and Sainz will have a shiny, untouched set of the fastest compound of the weekend available to use to their strategic advantage in the grand prix – something they saw Yuki Tsunoda make good work of on Saturday.
Unlike last weekend, when Leclerc had team mate Sainz starting alongside him, the Ferrari driver will instead have the two Aston Martins of Lance Stroll and Fernando Alonso directly behind him on the grid. After a particularly challenging first two legs of the triple-header, Aston Martin have both cars starting inside the first two rows of the grid for the first time all season. But while neither of the green cars finished in the top half of the field on Saturday, Alonso still feels positive about his team’s chances of a podium in the real thing.
“We had a lot of pace today, so a good sign for tomorrow,” Alonso said. “[A podium] could be possible if we execute a perfect race.
“I think Mercedes are still very fast – and Lando as well – so they will catch eventually. But we will try to execute a good race. No mistakes. If it’s a podium: fantastic. If it’s a top five: we’ll take it.”
But while Alonso expects the two Mercedes of fifth-placed Hamilton and eighth-placed Russell to make progress in the grand prix, neither were able to in the sprint race. Russell may have passed Norris for second on the opening lap but he ultimately finished where he started in fourth, while Hamilton faded late with his tyres to fall to seventh. Team principal Toto Wolff admitted his team may have set themselves up for a tough time in the grand prix.
“The car was not balanced optimally with the rear end not strong enough to live with the front,” he explained. “You’re having to drive the car on a knife’s edge but it’s almost impossible to do so. We need to go away this evening and work through what we can do to improve it for tomorrow. There are no easy fixes, but we will do everything that we can.”
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That leaves Norris in sixth as the better bet to move up the order through the grand prix, given his ability to largely match Verstappen through the bulk of the sprint race. And the McLaren driver was buoyed by vastly exceeding his own pre-weekend expectations on Saturday.
Naturally, the focus on tyre management in the sprint race means that strategy and keeping tyres alive will once again be crucial in the grand prix. Unlike last weekend in Mexico, where the one-stop strategy was favoured, Pirelli see a two-stop as the minimum, even with the grade of tyres being a step harder. With overtaking around the Interlagos circuit far more viable than most circuits on the calendar and the pit stop ‘undercut’ more effective, teams are incentivised to swap track position for better rubber as they have the opportunity to make it back on track.
But whatever strategy Red Bull choose to put their pole-winning driver on, Verstappen will head into Sunday in Sao Paulo with far more confidence and comfort with the car underneath him – and that should have all of his rivals concerned.
“With the higher fuel loads from the start, cooler track temp, I still think it’s going to be a lot of tyre management involved,” he said.
“But I think everyone will learn a lot from today and that will apply it to tomorrow. But very happy compared to last year. This is, of course, miles better for us and already looking forward to tomorrow.”
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Qualifying times in full
| P. | Driver | Team | Q1 | Q2 (v Q1) | Q3 (v Q2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 1’10.436 | 1’10.162 (-0.274s) | 1’10.727 (+0.565s) |
| 2 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 1’10.472 | 1’10.303 (-0.169s) | 1’11.021 (+0.718s) |
| 3 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | 1’10.551 | 1’10.375 (-0.176s) | 1’11.344 (+0.969s) |
| 4 | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | 1’10.557 | 1’10.237 (-0.320s) | 1’11.387 (+1.150s) |
| 5 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1’10.604 | 1’10.266 (-0.338s) | 1’11.469 (+1.203s) |
| 6 | George Russell | Mercedes | 1’10.340 | 1’10.316 (-0.024s) | 1’11.590 (+1.274s) |
| 7 | Lando Norris | McLaren | 1’10.623 | 1’10.021 (-0.602s) | 1’11.987 (+1.966s) |
| 8 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Ferrari | 1’10.624 | 1’10.254 (-0.370s) | 1’11.989 (+1.735s) |
| 9 | Sergio Perez | Red Bull | 1’10.668 | 1’10.219 (-0.449s) | 1’12.321 (+2.102s) |
| 10 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 1’10.519 | 1’10.330 (-0.189s) | |
| 11 | Nico Hulkenberg | Haas | 1’10.475 | 1’10.547 (+0.072s) | Missed by 0.172s |
| 12 | Esteban Ocon | Alpine | 1’10.763 | 1’10.562 (-0.201s) | Missed by 0.187s |
| 13 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 1’10.793 | 1’10.567 (-0.226s) | Missed by 0.192s |
| 14 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas | 1’10.602 | 1’10.723 (+0.121s) | Missed by 0.348s |
| 15 | Alexander Albon | Williams | 1’10.621 | 1’10.840 (+0.219s) | Missed by 0.465s |
| 16 | Yuki Tsunoda | AlphaTauri | 1’10.837 | Missed by 0.044s | |
| 17 | Daniel Ricciardo | AlphaTauri | 1’10.843 | Missed by 0.050s | |
| 18 | Valtteri Bottas | Alfa Romeo | 1’10.955 | Missed by 0.162s | |
| 19 | Logan Sargeant | Williams | 1’11.035 | Missed by 0.242s | |
| 20 | Zhou Guanyu | Alfa Romeo | 1’11.275 | Missed by 0.482s |
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Sector times
| P. | # | Driver | S1 | S2 | S3 | Ultimate lap (deficit) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | Lando Norris | 18.31 (3) | 35.361 (3) | 16.226 (1) | 1’09.897 (+0.124) |
| 2 | 1 | Max Verstappen | 18.359 (6) | 35.296 (1) | 16.37 (10) | 1’10.025 (+0.137) |
| 3 | 63 | George Russell | 18.418 (12) | 35.309 (2) | 16.375 (11) | 1’10.102 (+0.214) |
| 4 | 11 | Sergio Perez | 18.272 (2) | 35.423 (5) | 16.422 (16) | 1’10.117 (+0.102) |
| 5 | 14 | Fernando Alonso | 18.415 (11) | 35.426 (6) | 16.31 (4) | 1’10.151 (+0.086) |
| 6 | 16 | Charles Leclerc | 18.369 (8) | 35.519 (9) | 16.307 (3) | 1’10.195 (+0.108) |
| 7 | 18 | Lance Stroll | 18.433 (14) | 35.488 (7) | 16.306 (2) | 1’10.227 (+0.148) |
| 8 | 81 | Oscar Piastri | 18.268 (1) | 35.612 (10) | 16.348 (7) | 1’10.228 (+0.102) |
| 9 | 44 | Lewis Hamilton | 18.386 (10) | 35.397 (4) | 16.451 (19) | 1’10.234 (+0.032) |
| 10 | 55 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | 18.337 (4) | 35.517 (8) | 16.4 (14) | 1’10.254 |
| 11 | 27 | Nico Hulkenberg | 18.364 (7) | 35.701 (11) | 16.313 (5) | 1’10.378 (+0.097) |
| 12 | 10 | Pierre Gasly | 18.348 (5) | 35.736 (13) | 16.356 (8) | 1’10.440 (+0.127) |
| 13 | 20 | Kevin Magnussen | 18.38 (9) | 35.787 (15) | 16.315 (6) | 1’10.482 (+0.120) |
| 14 | 31 | Esteban Ocon | 18.425 (13) | 35.771 (14) | 16.357 (9) | 1’10.553 (+0.009) |
| 15 | 23 | Alexander Albon | 18.473 (16) | 35.729 (12) | 16.392 (13) | 1’10.594 (+0.027) |
| 16 | 22 | Yuki Tsunoda | 18.483 (17) | 35.849 (16) | 16.382 (12) | 1’10.714 (+0.123) |
| 17 | 3 | Daniel Ricciardo | 18.537 (18) | 35.892 (17) | 16.414 (15) | 1’10.843 |
| 18 | 77 | Valtteri Bottas | 18.573 (19) | 35.938 (18) | 16.444 (17) | 1’10.955 |
| 19 | 2 | Logan Sargeant | 18.465 (15) | 36.126 (20) | 16.444 (17) | 1’11.035 |
| 20 | 24 | Zhou Guanyu | 18.719 (20) | 36.011 (19) | 16.545 (20) | 1’11.275 |
Speed trap
| P. | # | Driver | Car | Engine | Model | Max kph (mph) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | Pierre Gasly | Alpine | Renault | A523 | 339.1 (210.7) |
| 2 | 31 | Esteban Ocon | Alpine | Renault | A523 | 338.5 (210.3) |
| 3 | 1 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | Honda RBPT | RB19 | 334.4 (207.8) |
| 4 | 11 | Sergio Perez | Red Bull | Honda RBPT | RB19 | 334.2 (207.7) |
| 5 | 22 | Yuki Tsunoda | AlphaTauri | Honda RBPT | AT04 | 333.9 (207.5) |
| 6 | 20 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas | Ferrari | VF-23 | 333.5 (207.2) |
| 7 | 3 | Daniel Ricciardo | AlphaTauri | Honda RBPT | AT04 | 333.5 (207.2) |
| 8 | 55 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Ferrari | Ferrari | SF-23 | 332.7 (206.7) |
| 9 | 16 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | Ferrari | SF-23 | 332.3 (206.5) |
| 10 | 4 | Lando Norris | McLaren | Mercedes | MCL60 | 331.2 (205.8) |
| 11 | 18 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | Mercedes | AMR23 | 330.9 (205.6) |
| 12 | 81 | Oscar Piastri | McLaren | Mercedes | MCL60 | 330.8 (205.5) |
| 13 | 27 | Nico Hulkenberg | Haas | Ferrari | VF-23 | 330.7 (205.5) |
| 14 | 14 | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | Mercedes | AMR23 | 329.8 (204.9) |
| 15 | 2 | Logan Sargeant | Williams | Mercedes | FW45 | 329.0 (204.4) |
| 16 | 23 | Alexander Albon | Williams | Mercedes | FW45 | 328.3 (204.0) |
| 17 | 77 | Valtteri Bottas | Alfa Romeo | Ferrari | C43 | 327.5 (203.5) |
| 18 | 44 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Mercedes | W14 | 326.9 (203.1) |
| 19 | 24 | Zhou Guanyu | Alfa Romeo | Ferrari | C43 | 326.7 (203.0) |
| 20 | 63 | George Russell | Mercedes | Mercedes | W14 | 326.2 (202.7) |
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Over to you
Will anyone be able to take the fight to Verstappen in the race? Share your views on the Brazilian Grand Prix in the comments.
2023 Brazilian Grand Prix
- Perez’s missed “open goal” in Miami was turning point in title fight – Horner
- F1 drivers insist new rules to prevent impeding in qualifying don’t work
- McLaren surprised by margin over rivals at track Norris thought would be “tough”
- “Follow Fernando’s line” – How Red Bull tried everything to get Perez past Alonso
- Mercedes’ Brazilian GP set-up was “conservative” after US GP disqualification
f1statsfan (@)
5th November 2023, 9:56
Suggestion for future articles of pre race analysis is to add an overview of tires available to each driver prior to the race with # of push laps done.
Ferrari have 1 set of new softs but does that mean they do not have new mediums/hards – does Max have new tires available like in Mexico with 2 sets of hards?
Jere (@jerejj)
5th November 2023, 14:57
Pirelli always tweets remaining available sets for each race earlier on race days.
Nick T.
5th November 2023, 15:16
Oops, just said the same exact thing below. Should have read the other comments first. Anyway, for those of us who don’t use Twitter, it’d be great to have a list here.
PMccarthy_is_a_legend (@pmccarthy_is_a_legend)
5th November 2023, 13:18
Realistically the only car that has the race pace to more or less stay with Verstappen is starting in sixth, so expect Max to nail the start and disappear into the distance. Lower in the field there will be good battles though.
bosyber (@bosyber)
5th November 2023, 14:15
With Norris showing some good overtaking during the race where he started (a bit this time) too far back but with great pace, like in Mexico @pmccarthy_is_a_legend? Quite likely indeed.
Jere (@jerejj)
5th November 2023, 14:57
Another comfortable win incoming.
Nick T.
5th November 2023, 15:14
More valuable than a lot of these stats would be a list of how many sets of new tires each driver has as well as used and how many laps on them. Alonso lost two sets of nearly brand new tires (one medium, one hard). That cannot be good.
Nick T.
5th November 2023, 15:29
I’ll answer my own concern:
Alonso is the only driver with no new hards, but Pirelli is predicting a two stop using a mix of mediums and softs would be the best. The mediums didn’t look great which is the only tire Alonso has more than one set of. So, if the medium is poor again, he’ll be at a major disadvantage.