Why Leclerc sees Las Vegas as Ferrari’s best chance to win since Singapore

The Rio All-Suite Hotel & Casino sits in the heart of Las Vegas is just a mile away from the world famous strip.

Long after Formula 1 left behind the ugly, unpopular Ceasars Palace circuit, Las Vegas would, decades later, again see some major names in international motorsport all racing in Sin City.

For many years, the Rio hotel was host of the SuperNationals karting festival – a major event on the karting calendar in the United States of America that brought some of the best young talent from Europe and beyond to compete. And in 2012, SuperNationals two prodigious young drivers were among the hundreds who rocked up to the Rio – Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen.

While racing in different categories, both left quite an impression when they left Las Vegas. Both secured pole position in their respective categories – Leclerc in the TaG Senior class, Verstappen in the KZ2. Neither would go on to win their respective main events. Leclerc finished fourth after a recovery drive, Verstappen suffered a kart problem that dropped him from the lead.

Now, 11 years later, both drivers are eager to right the wrongs of history and leave as the winner of the biggest motorsport event ever held in the city of Las Vegas.

It’s only fitting that these two lifelong rivals will occupy the front row of the grid for the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix. Arguably the two most successful drivers of F1’s ground effect era to date, both Leclerc and Verstappen are the perfect representation of Formula 1’s present. A blockbuster blow-for-blow battle between them would be the perfect way for F1’s biggest ever grand prix to play out in front of the US and the world watching on – particularly after Thursday’s shaky start to the newest grand prix on the calendar.

Leclerc did not nab pole from the world champion against the run of play. He was the consistent pace-setter through the weekend and converted his potential into pole. The Ferrari was ahead of the Red Bull on their respective quickest Q3 laps from the moment Verstappen hit the brake pedal for the first corner – mere metres before Leclerc did. But while beating Verstappen over 50 laps is much more difficult than doing it over just six kilometres, Leclerc seems genuinely boosted by his pole.

“The confidence is high because we are starting first,” he said. “It’s the best position to start from.

“On the other hand, we know that Red Bull is going to be very strong, and Max obviously is going to be very strong in race pace. But I feel like we’ve had positive signs this weekend on the high fuel, more than other races, so I hope we can convert that pole position into a win.”

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While Leclerc start from pole position for the fifth time in 2023 – easily the most of anyone after Verstappen, he has so far been unable to convert any of them into victories. But while Red Bull were beatable in qualifying, Verstappen has plenty of reason for confidence heading into the race.

“The whole weekend I think we were not strong enough over one lap, so no real surprises there,” he said. “Yesterday, I think the long runs looked good, so hopefully that will be the same in the race.”

But this should really have been a triple-threat match-up. Leclerc’s Ferrari team mate, Carlos Sainz Jnr, originally claimed the front grid slot that Verstappen will occupy on Saturday evening, but will start from 12th on the grid after being hit by a controversial 10-place grid penalty.

He’s not the only driver who considers it wrong he has been penalised for exceeding his power unit parts allocation due to damage incurred when he hit an unsecured water valve cover during the first practice session. It’s little wonder that Sainz was salty to be denied the opportunity to start up front for such a marquee event.

“I have people that have never come to a race that are still asking me why I’m getting a penalty for what happened,” Sainz said. “And they’ve never been to an F1 race.”

During the long runs in the extended second practice session, Verstappen set the best pace of anyone on the medium compound rubber with a 1’39.5 average lap time. That made him marginally quicker than Sainz – only compounding Ferrari’s frustrations – while Leclerc’s pace gave him an average lap time of a 1’40.2. That was quicker than Sergio Perez managed during his own 10-lap run on the mediums late in second practice. But he will start outside the top 10 once again, being the last driver to benefit from Sainz’s penalty, taking 11th on the grid.

The start of a grand prix is always critical, but Las Vegas will likely prove one of the most challenging of the season. So low is the level of grip, Mercedes’ George Russell, who starts third, suggested that “the track’s going to be a disaster in this first five laps of the race.”

Thanks to the curtailment of the first practice session and Alexander Albon’s crash at the end of the third, the field head into the race with just a single practice start under their belt from the end of second practice, leaving them with limited data to work from. And with a cool track expected with a natural low grip level of a new street circuit, Verstappen expects those who start on the outside of the grid on the racing line to have a significant advantage.

“I think it’s a bit like Austin when it was the first race, there it was also very bad on the inside,” Verstappen explained. “So that’s not ideal.

“Luckily the run to turn one is not too bad. But if you have a bad start, you can still lose a lot of positions. So we’ll work on that tomorrow.”

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The weekend so far has been dominated by tyre warm-up determining the best performance over a single lap and tyre wear impacting performance over the long runs. Lewis Hamilton complained his rear tyres were finished after just 14 laps on the mediums in second practice, yet Verstappen was able to catch up to the Mercedes on his own long run despite being on tyres three laps older than Hamilton’s, demonstrating the Red Bull’s superior tyre management.

But drivers have been complaining about graining in all sessions, with Albon claiming that Pirelli’s above-average minimum tyre pressures for this weekend has only exacerbated graining. But Pirelli’s Mario Isola says it’s all about who can keep their discipline with their right foot onto the many straights drivers will be running down during the race.

“If you slide a little bit more, you accelerate the issue,” Isola explained. “It’s probably more important to keep a good traction here because you don’t have high-speed corners. You need the traction out of the slow corners. So if you are able to keep good traction and protect the rear tyre, then you can work around the understeer. But it’s probably better to have graining on the front rather than the rear.”

With the degradation, Pirelli expect drivers to stop at least twice during the grand prix and to stay away from the soft compound – unless the track surface improves considerably in the latter stages of the race. That will likely lock the field in to starting on mediums to avoid losing ground over what is likely to be a very low-grip start as it is, before switching to the hards for the final two stints. But third-placed Russell expects the tyre situation will likely play into Ferrari’s hands.

“Ferrari look in a league of their own, they haven’t had any graining, they’ve been super-fast in the high fuel,” Russell said.

“But equally as the track grips up tomorrow maybe we’ll see graining in stint one but you won’t see it in stint two and three because the track is probably going to be probably three seconds quicker in the last laps, compared to the early laps, probably even more because we’ve got no support series.”

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The low grip and close barriers around the Las Vegas Strip Circuit would typically be a recipe for chaos with multiple Safety Cars or even red flag interruptions, yet so far only one driver has struck the wall in any significant way over the three major sessions completed over the weekend. Some drivers, including Russell, have questioned whether DRS will be enough of an advantage with most cars running low downforce packages to enable overtaking down the Strip. But practice indicated opening DRS should allow for more than enough of a speed advantage to pull alongside – and the zone on the Strip was extended by 50 metres ahead of Saturday’s running.

Even if Leclerc can keep ahead of Verstappen in the opening laps, he’s led enough grands prix with Verstappen behind him to know what the most likely outcome will be. However, based on what he has shown so far over the weekend, it seems this truly could be Leclerc’s best chance of beating Verstappen in a straight fight all season. And he knows it.

“In Singapore, in some places, you can drive one-and-a-half or two seconds off the pace and still the cars behind cannot overtake,” he said. “Here it’s going to be very, very different and pace will have a much more important role in the race

“Not to say that we are stronger in race pace compare to Max, but I think we are closer than other races. So if there is one race to win since Singapore, it’s this one and I’ll obviously give it all.”

But just like no one can know for sure who holds the best hand until the betting is done at the poker table, we will only get our answers about what kind of grand prix Las Vegas will be as the race itself plays out. And that’s just how Verstappen likes it.

“I think it will depend a lot on who can keep the tyres alive or whoever grains their tyres more,” he said.” So we’ll have to wait and see tomorrow.

“That’s the beautiful thing, there’s no sprint race to find out.”

Qualifying times in full

P.	Driver	Team	Q1	Q2 (v Q1)	Q3 (v Q2)
1	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	1’33.617	1’32.775 (-0.842s)	1’32.726 (-0.049s)
2	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	1’33.851	1’33.338 (-0.513s)	1’32.770 (-0.568s)
3	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	1’34.190	1’33.572 (-0.618s)	1’33.104 (-0.468s)
4	George Russell	Mercedes	1’34.137	1’33.351 (-0.786s)	1’33.112 (-0.239s)
5	Pierre Gasly	Alpine	1’34.272	1’33.494 (-0.778s)	1’33.239 (-0.255s)
6	Alexander Albon	Williams	1’34.634	1’33.588 (-1.046s)	1’33.323 (-0.265s)
7	Logan Sargeant	Williams	1’34.525	1’33.733 (-0.792s)	1’33.513 (-0.220s)
8	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo	1’34.305	1’33.809 (-0.496s)	1’33.525 (-0.284s)
9	Kevin Magnussen	Haas	1’34.337	1’33.664 (-0.673s)	1’33.537 (-0.127s)
10	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	1’34.422	1’33.617 (-0.805s)	1’33.555 (-0.062s)
11	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	1’34.307	1’33.837 (-0.470s)	Missed by 0.028s
12	Sergio Perez	Red Bull	1’34.574	1’33.855 (-0.719s)	Missed by 0.046s
13	Nico Hulkenberg	Haas	1’34.265	1’33.979 (-0.286s)	Missed by 0.170s
14	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	1’34.504	1’34.199 (-0.305s)	Missed by 0.390s
15	Daniel Ricciardo	AlphaTauri	1’34.683	1’34.308 (-0.375s)	Missed by 0.499s
16	Lando Norris	McLaren	1’34.703	Missed by 0.020s
17	Esteban Ocon	Alpine	1’34.834	Missed by 0.151s
18	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo	1’34.849	Missed by 0.166s
19	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	1’34.850	Missed by 0.167s
20	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri	1’36.447	Missed by 1.764s

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Sector times

P.	#	Driver	S1	S2	S3	Ultimate lap (deficit)
1	16	Charles Leclerc	26.079 (1)	30.647 (1)	35.85 (7)	1’32.576 (+0.150)
2	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	26.157 (2)	30.772 (2)	35.74 (2)	1’32.669 (+0.101)
3	1	Max Verstappen	26.289 (4)	30.828 (3)	35.958 (11)	1’33.075 (+0.029)
4	63	George Russell	26.364 (5)	30.99 (5)	35.758 (5)	1’33.112
5	10	Pierre Gasly	26.415 (7)	31.019 (7)	35.75 (3)	1’33.184 (+0.055)
6	23	Alexander Albon	26.576 (10)	31.008 (6)	35.727 (1)	1’33.311 (+0.012)
7	14	Fernando Alonso	26.483 (8)	31.106 (9)	35.861 (8)	1’33.450 (+0.105)
8	20	Kevin Magnussen	26.248 (3)	30.966 (4)	36.236 (18)	1’33.450 (+0.087)
9	77	Valtteri Bottas	26.393 (6)	31.141 (12)	35.918 (9)	1’33.452 (+0.073)
10	2	Logan Sargeant	26.605 (11)	31.106 (9)	35.802 (6)	1’33.513
11	44	Lewis Hamilton	26.831 (14)	31.187 (13)	35.752 (4)	1’33.770 (+0.067)
12	27	Nico Hulkenberg	26.55 (9)	31.107 (11)	36.127 (14)	1’33.784 (+0.195)
13	11	Sergio Perez	26.627 (12)	31.043 (8)	36.185 (15)	1’33.855
14	18	Lance Stroll	26.722 (13)	31.265 (16)	36.212 (16)	1’34.199
15	3	Daniel Ricciardo	27.132 (18)	31.202 (14)	35.957 (10)	1’34.291 (+0.017)
16	31	Esteban Ocon	27.098 (17)	31.227 (15)	36.005 (12)	1’34.330 (+0.504)
17	4	Lando Norris	26.851 (15)	31.483 (17)	36.352 (19)	1’34.686 (+0.017)
18	81	Oscar Piastri	26.884 (16)	31.669 (19)	36.219 (17)	1’34.772 (+0.078)
19	24	Zhou Guanyu	27.161 (19)	31.568 (18)	36.085 (13)	1’34.814 (+0.035)
20	22	Yuki Tsunoda	27.724 (20)	32.222 (20)	36.429 (20)	1’36.375 (+0.072)

Speed trap

P.	#	Driver	Car	Engine	Model	Max kph (mph)
1	11	Sergio Perez	Red Bull	Honda RBPT	RB19	348.3 (216.4)
2	63	George Russell	Mercedes	Mercedes	W14	348.1 (216.3)
3	2	Logan Sargeant	Williams	Mercedes	FW45	347.8 (216.1)
4	77	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo	Ferrari	C43	347.7 (216.1)
5	1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	Honda RBPT	RB19	347.1 (215.7)
6	10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine	Renault	A523	346.1 (215.1)
7	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	Ferrari	SF-23	345.9 (214.9)
8	16	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	Ferrari	SF-23	345.3 (214.6)
9	23	Alexander Albon	Williams	Mercedes	FW45	344.9 (214.3)
10	44	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	Mercedes	W14	344.8 (214.2)
11	14	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	Mercedes	AMR23	344.7 (214.2)
12	3	Daniel Ricciardo	AlphaTauri	Honda RBPT	AT04	342.9 (213.1)
13	27	Nico Hulkenberg	Haas	Ferrari	VF-23	342.4 (212.8)
14	20	Kevin Magnussen	Haas	Ferrari	VF-23	341.5 (212.2)
15	18	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	Mercedes	AMR23	340.6 (211.6)
16	81	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	Mercedes	MCL60	340.3 (211.5)
17	22	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri	Honda RBPT	AT04	340.1 (211.3)
18	4	Lando Norris	McLaren	Mercedes	MCL60	338.7 (210.5)
19	31	Esteban Ocon	Alpine	Renault	A523	338.2 (210.1)
20	24	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo	Ferrari	C43	331.1 (205.7)

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Over to you

Will Leclerc finally get one over Verstappen in Las Vegas? Share your views on the Las Vegas Grand Prix in the comments.

2023 Las Vegas Grand Prix

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• Las Vegas Grand Prix “got a lot more hate than it deserved” – Sargeant
• Williams’ “incredible” Vegas qualifying made us “poor” in race – Vowles
• Piastri is first rookie to take two fastest laps in a season since Hamilton

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