Lewis Hamilton said it was “silly” to consider the possibility of winning the world championship at the last round.
Sure enough, he didn’t. But his ninth win of the season means he is very likely to clinch his fourth world championship this weekend. Here’s what he needs to do.
Go ad-free for just £1 per month
>> Find out more and sign up
The only driver left who can stop Hamilton winning the championship is Sebastian Vettel. He is 66 points behind with 75 available to be won over the final rounds.
If Hamilton leaves Mexico with a lead of at least 50 points he will have won the world championship. The scenarios in which that could happen are highlighted blue in this table:
Hamilton’s finishing position | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | 10th | 11th+/DNF | ||
Vettel’s finishing position | 1st | 59 | 56 | 53 | 51 | 49 | 47 | 45 | 43 | 42 | 41 | |
2nd | 73 | 63 | 60 | 58 | 56 | 54 | 52 | 50 | 49 | 48 | ||
3rd | 76 | 69 | 63 | 61 | 59 | 57 | 55 | 53 | 52 | 51 | ||
4th | 79 | 72 | 69 | 64 | 62 | 60 | 58 | 56 | 55 | 54 | ||
5th | 81 | 74 | 71 | 68 | 64 | 62 | 60 | 58 | 57 | 56 | ||
6th | 83 | 76 | 73 | 70 | 68 | 64 | 62 | 60 | 59 | 58 | ||
7th | 85 | 78 | 75 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 64 | 62 | 61 | 60 | ||
8th | 87 | 80 | 77 | 74 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 64 | 63 | 62 | ||
9th | 89 | 82 | 79 | 76 | 74 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 65 | 64 | ||
10th | 90 | 83 | 80 | 77 | 75 | 73 | 71 | 69 | 67 | 65 | ||
11th+/DNF | 91 | 84 | 81 | 78 | 76 | 74 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 67 | 66 |
The key points to bear in mind on how the title might be decided are as follows:
- If Vettel retires, Hamilton is champion
- If Vettel finishes third or lower, Hamilton is champion
- If Hamilton finishes fifth or higher, he is champion regardless of where Vettel finishes
- If the race fails to reach three-quarter distance then half points will be awarded and Hamilton will become the champion regardless of whether he finishes or not.
The odds are therefore stacked heavily in Hamilton’s favour: 16 of the 17 races so far this year have produced results which, if repeated this weekend, would make Hamilton champion. The exceptions was Monaco, where Vettel led a one-two finish for Ferrari and Hamilton came seventh.
ppzzus (@ppzzus)
26th October 2017, 16:32
It’s over.
TR
26th October 2017, 17:42
As you can see from the article’s photo, Ferrari are deploying their secret weapon: Creepy Hamilton Cut-out Scarecrows. They are hoping that a few around the track will scare away any stray Hamilton that may try to approach the track. It just might work. It sure creeps me out!
Ashwin (@redbullf1)
26th October 2017, 20:47
Lap 4 Hamilton’s engine gives up, saw it yesterday in my dream , dont worry guys , it’s not over !
Esploratore (@esploratore)
27th October 2017, 3:46
Problem is it’s over regardless, are we sure vettel would win the race assuming hamilton’s engine gives up? Even if he does, he still needs to win the others and if hamilton manages a 5th place in the other 2 he still wins!
f12007v (@f1fan-2000)
27th October 2017, 5:13
But anything could happen. Its also possible hamilton’s luck runs out and he retires in the next 3 races. Anything could happen in f1
Blackmamba (@blackmamba)
27th October 2017, 9:42
@f1fan-2000 keep hope alive..
TurboBT
26th October 2017, 16:45
I’d play with Verstappen if I were him and fight for 4-5th position. Just for the entertainment.
Ben Needham (@ben-n)
26th October 2017, 17:34
Just a side point, that I may have misunderstood… Surely if the Hungary result mentioned was repeated this would lead to Hamilton winning the WDC, with a 4th place finish to Vettel’s victory?
ppzzus (@ppzzus)
26th October 2017, 19:02
Thats kind of an interesting point. Vettel/Ferrari used every dirty trick they had while Hamilton was the gentleman racer, and the results showed in the end.
Mike Dee (@mike-dee)
26th October 2017, 21:19
@ben-n You are obviously right. Only a repeat of the Monaco result that would mean that Hamilton does not win the Championship on Sunday – after all, he was 5th or better at all other races.
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
26th October 2017, 21:23
Yes you’re right – have corrected that. Thanks!
Mike Dee (@mike-dee)
26th October 2017, 21:12
The Championship is truly over. Even if Hamilton DNFs on Sunday and Vettel wins – at next race, the same article could be written again. And even if Hamilton DNFs again and Vettel wins again, Hamilton has a third chance with exactly the same odds again.
If Vettel wins all three remaining races, Hamilton needs 9 points from these three races. If Vettel wins twice and comes second once, Hamilton only needs 2 points from those three races.
Ben Rowe (@thegianthogweed)
26th October 2017, 22:14
@mike-dee
I know the championship is very very likely to be Hamilton’s but I don’t think we can say it is truly over. We just can’t predict the future. The Mercedes seems to have been very reliable this year but I remember at the start of 2015, Maldonado had Mercedes power and retired in all 6 out of 6 races at the start of the season. And none of them were related to crashes. Just the car or the engine. It is incredibly unlikely but I can’t say it is impossible that Hamilton will retire in all 3 races and Vettel will manage a couple of wins and a 2nd place.
But no matter what I say, I don’t think that will happen! :D
Ashwin (@redbullf1)
26th October 2017, 23:15
Honestly I hope every single word of your prediction happens :)
Mike Dee (@mike-dee)
26th October 2017, 23:32
@thegianthogweed The 2015 Mercedes Maldonado story you tell is not really accurate. He retired 5 times in the first 6 races, 3 times because of brake problems, once because of a collision, and once because of collision damage. So the Mercedes engine wasn’t even involved.
I think it is wishful thinking that the championship will not be decided after Sunday.
Ben Rowe (@thegianthogweed)
27th October 2017, 9:22
He did retire all 6 times. He just was classified in one of them. But in all 6 of them, he didn’t cross the finish line. I may have been wrong about the engine in those races but he certainly did have several retirements later on in the season that was related to engine issues.