The joint-longest Formula 1 season of all time finally reaches its end this weekend, long after Red Bull and Max Verstappen claimed this year’s two biggest prizes.
But while the titles have been secured, there are still championship finishing positions to be determined. Including the not-insignificant matter of whether Mercedes will hold onto second in the constructors’ championship, or if Ferrari will snatch it from them at the final race of the season.With more questions to be answered before the season finally sunsets, there is still plenty of reason to follow this final dead rubber of 2023. Here are the talking points for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
Old rivals, final showdown
With Red Bull heading the constructors’ championship since the opening round of the season in early March, the other nine teams have effectively all been competing for second place since lights went out in Bahrain. Now, that battle finally comes to a head with the two rivals separated by just four points – their closest margin since that first race.
Ferrari have the benefit of their high top speed which should help them to defend from their rivals down the straights. But with Mercedes the only team of the ‘big three’ not to have won a race in 2023, they will be especially determined to hold onto this consolation prize of second place in the championship. Even if their team principal Toto Wolff claims he is not fussed about what position they finish if it is not first.
“It’s good to have P2 as a positive to finish the season,” Wolff told media including RaceFans after Las Vegas, “but P2, P3… for me, it doesn’t make me particularly cheer any way.”
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A winning end to F1’s most dominant season?
Statistically, Verstappen has enjoyed the most dominant season of Formula 1 in the history of the sport. Ascari, Fangio, Clarks, Senna, Prost, Schumacher, Vettel or even Hamilton – no other world champion in F1 history has ever won as much or as frequently as Verstappen has in 2023.
Anything other than a fourth consecutive Abu Dhabi Grand Prix victory for Verstappen this weekend would be a surprise result. Ferrari may have run Red Bull close in Las Vegas, but the long straights, low temperatures and short corners suited them: Yas Marina is much warmer, and though it has two hefty straights, the complexion of its corners has been much quicker since its 2021 makeover.
Verstappen has set a new benchmark for most grand prix wins in a season even if he doesn’t take a 19th victory on Sunday. That many wins on their own would be enough to put him 18th on the all-time grand prix winners list: more than world champions Jenson Button, Graham Hill, Jack Brabham, Emerson Fittipaldi, Alberto Ascari, Mario Andretti, Alan Jones, Jacques Villeneuve, James Hunt, Jody Scheckter, Denny Hulme, John Surtees, Guiseppe Farina, Keke Rosberg, Mike Hawthorn and Phil Hill all achieved through their entire respective careers.
Aside from simply finishing the race, Verstappen can also tread new ground in Formula 1 history if he leads at least 49 laps of Sunday’s 58 lap race. If he does, he will become the first – and hopefully the only ever – driver to lead 1,000 laps during a single grand prix season. Is this the closest thing to complete domination we will ever see?
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The battle at the back
The bottom four teams – Williams, AlphaTauri, Alfa Romeo and Haas – are separated by just nine points. Although that is a wide margin for those to whom points can be rare, just one major result could suddenly throw Alfa Romeo above AlphaTauri or even Haas above Alfa Romeo. Williams might have done just enough to hold onto seventh place in all likelihood, but team principal James Vowles will certainly not be counting his team’s best championship finish since 2017 until the chequered flag has flown on Sunday – especially with the pace AlphaTauri showed at Interlagos.
With so much money at stake for the lower teams even in the modern budget cap era, the importance of each position at this end of the field cannot be overstated. Expect to see plenty of passions after the finish in Abu Dhabi – especially if there is another nail-biting final lap finish like the one between Alfa Romeo and Aston Martin here last year, where the former secured sixth place on the final lap.
Saying “prost!” to Tost, AlphaTauri and Alfa Romeo
As ever, the season finale is a time for chapters to come to a close. There may be no teams set to leave the grid or not joining them in 2024, but at least two of F1’s 10 teams will have a very different look about them after this final round of the season.First of all, one of longest-serving team principals on the grid, Franz Tost, will step aside. Over 18 seasons, the 67-year-old has been the ideal steward for Red Bull’s junior team – first known as Toro Rosso, now AlphaTauri – providing the level of discipline and nurturing that the energy drinks giant needed for their junior driver programme.
From Vettel to Verstappen, so many drivers on the current grid and from years past owe their opportunities in Formula 1 to Tost and his team. Under his stewardship they even enjoyed two memorable grand prix victories, both on home ground at Monza, with Vettel in 2008 and Pierre Gasly in 2020.
But incoming team principal Laurent Mekies from Ferrari is not the only thing about Red Bull’s second team that will be different in 2024. The team known as Minardi until Red Bull bought it at the end of 2005 will change identity again next season. While the name and visual identity are yet to be confirmed, it’s near certain that it will remain unmistakably Red Bull.
Alfa Romeo too will undergo a transformation. After six seasons with prominent Alfa Romeo branding, five of which under the name of the famous Italian marque, the Sauber name is expected to return to the grid in 2024. While keeping its current two drivers, Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu, for 2024 at least, Sauber will undergo a slow evolution into Audi’s factory team when the German manufacturer is due to join the grid in 2026, in time for the new generation of power units.
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Junior jamboree
As is typical for the final round of the season, teams who have not fulfilled their obligations to run so-called ‘young drivers’ in their cars during Friday practice sessions must do so this weekend. As such, the majority of teams will be running a junior driver in their cars during Friday’s opening practice session.
As Oscar Piastri was a newcomer in Bahrain, McLaren have only had to ask Lando Norris to step aside this season – which he will do for IndyCar racer Pato O’Ward on Friday. Likewise Williams have already ticked one box thanks to rookie Logan Sargeant, and will complete their quote when Zak O’Sullivan makes his first appearance in an official F1 session in Alexander Albon’s Williams.
Theo Pourchaire is set to drive Zhou Guanyu’s Alfa Romeo on a weekend when he is strong favourite to clinch the Formula 2 title. Last year’s champion Felipe Drugovich will get a turn in Fernando Alonso’s AMR23.
Haas will run Oliver Bearman in Nico Hulkenberg’s car on Friday, while the two Red Bull teams take a different approach. AlphaTauri have already fulfilled their requirement, first with rookie Nyck de Vries in what is now Daniel Ricciardo’s car, then Isack Hadjar driving Yuki Tsunoda’s in Mexico. World champions Red Bull will take a novel approach: Both Verstappen and Perez will miss the opening session on Friday, with their cars taken by Hadjar and current Formula E world champion Jake Dennis.
A glimpse of the future?
That was the case last weekend for Alpine, who ran experimental parts and set-ups during the extended practice session and even holding some during the grand prix itself. While the team insisted that these particular parts made no impact on the stopwatch, the team insisted that it was useful for them to gather real world data to help put the finishing touches for their 2024 design that is currently cooking in their Enstone factory.
So keep an eye out this weekend, as teams may well be set to offer a special advance preview of what they might run at the start of the next Formula 1 world championship. After all, when the chequered flag drops on Sunday, it will be less than 100 days away…
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Are you going to the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
If you’re heading to Abu Dhabi for this weekend’s race, we want to hear from you:
Who do you think will be the team to beat in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Have your say below.
2023 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
- Mercedes’ team photo shows we still have a long way to go on diversity – Hamilton
- Why luck was a factor in Perez’s penalty for “joke” comment
- Bottas and Zhou see encouraging signs from overhauled 2024 car
- Only Verstappen got the best from his car every weekend, rival team bosses admit
- How Sainz suffered the worst season finale for a driver since Schumacher in 1997
Avro Anson (@avroanson)
22nd November 2023, 7:48
A very impressive set of statistics for Verstappen. However, it would be good to see them expressed as a proportion of the total available. Many of the other drivers listed were from eras when the number of races per year was much, much lower than the current overly-long season.
F1statsfan (@f1statsfan)
22nd November 2023, 8:15
Also in % Max broke most key records in terms of % of wins, % of laps lead, % of points (counting are races).
In terms of % podiums he didn’t match Schumacher 100% record but with a likely podium in Abu Dbahi he gets very close with 21 of 22 podiums = 95.5% versus Schumacher 17/17 = 100%.
Obviously with ever longer seasons getting that 100% becomes near impossible to achieve. If you extend the 2002 season with the last 5 races of 2001 or first 5 races of 2003 Schumacher either gets to 21 of 22 or 19 of 22.
MichaelN
22nd November 2023, 11:47
Schumacher’s record in 2002 is all the more impressive considering that Williams and McLaren had 10+ podiums each (ans also won!). Add that he was involved in his fair share of lap one incidents with a combative Montoya eager to make his mark in F1, and great pace by the BMW in qualifying which meant he started from pole ‘only’ 7 times – the same number as Montoya.
This year there was only one fluke win by Ferrari in Singapore, and no serious challenges elsewhere. Due to the parc ferme, there is also no longer much difference between qualifying and race pace, which means Verstappen has over double the number of poles as Leclerc, who has (unfortunately) build a bit of a reputation of never winning from said poles. The other competitors are down at just a meager two poles; Sainz and Pérez.
And contrary to Schumacher’s opponents, the drivers today seem to pride themselves on how fast they can get out of Verstappen’s way. I don’t recall a single hard-fought move he’s had to make all season; and part of this is obviously also the fault of DRS.
Frank
22nd November 2023, 16:32
In the 90s and 00s, it was often impossibly hard to overtake.
As a result, defending had a much higher success rate and costed less effort.
With drivers considering it worthwhile to defend, scything through the field was rare and only happened in changing conditions or in title deciders – where drivers would jump out of the way of a contender.
I believe that the comeback drive in Spa 2022 would have been impossible in a dry Spa in f.e. 2001.
Times change. But greatness is achieved by dominating your own era, previous eras don’t count.
Avro Anson (@avroanson)
22nd November 2023, 12:04
@f1statsfan Thanks. I should have known you’d have the numbers.
F1statsfan (@f1statsfan)
22nd November 2023, 8:21
To add – Max becomes the 6th driver to achieve above 85% podium rate:
1) Schumacher in 2002 with 17 of 17 = 100%
2) Verstappen in 2023 with 20 of 22 = 90.9% or 21 of 22 = 95.5%
3) Clark in 1963 with 9 of 10 = 90%
4) Vettel in 2011 with 17 of 19 = 89.5%
5) Lewis in 2015 with 17 of 19 = 89.5%
6) Prost in 1988 with 14 of 16 = 87.5%
Frank
22nd November 2023, 10:20
The stats of Clark and Prost are actually insane given the expected DNF ratio in their eras.
Facts&Stats
22nd November 2023, 10:37
Especially since Clark retired from the lead with technical issues in the single race he didn’t get onto the podium.
Also for Prost the two missed podiums were retirements.
F1 frog (@f1frog)
22nd November 2023, 11:13
Yes, Clark didn’t win Monaco in 1963 because he retired from the lead with gearbox failure. He probably also would have beaten John Surtees to victory in the Nurburgring had it not been for engine glitches, and perhaps would have won in Watkins Glen without a dud battery on the grid. However, it is worth noting that, for sheer speed, his Lotus 25 was a dominant car in 1963, which is why I don’t rate that season quite as highly as his 1965, where he was almost as dominant but in a car that was no better than the BRM.
And I find it interesting that those 14 podiums for Prost in 1988 were all either wins, or second-places behind Ayrton Senna. So if Prost had had a weak teammate in 1988 he would have won 14 out of 16 races. In Monza, he retired from second behind Senna due to an engine failure, and in Silverstone he struggled in wet conditions and pulled out.
Drg
22nd November 2023, 16:46
Worth considering the statistics Clark achieved in those years in other formula. At the same time.
Formula 2 along with the F1 southern equivalent today of the Tasman challenge.
His stats in one year show 90 top level races. Worth reading up on it.
Makes the younger crowd look like total lightweights
melanos
22nd November 2023, 23:33
Alain “Le Proffeseur” Prost has a particular record, nobody has had such a low DNF ratio vs. the whole of his teammates. In fact he is the only driver in F1 history who achieved clear statistical significance for this particular variable (41 vs 73 non-driver DNFs, p value 0.0005, Fischer’s exact test), meaning that it is extremely unlikely that this was due to the play of chance. There is a f1metrics post about this.
It surely means that Alain Prost used to be a “car whisperer”, quite attuned to his monture and extremely gentle with it (and btw his most remembered teammate, the anything-but-gentle Ayrton Senna had exactly double non-driver DNFs that AP). Jim Clark also had a reputation of being gentle with the car but f1metrics gives no stats for drivers before 1980 because things were much more complicated back then
F1statsfan (@f1statsfan)
22nd November 2023, 8:05
“If he does, he will become the first – and hopefully the only ever – driver to lead 1,000 laps during a single grand prix season.”
With hope I assume F1 will never go beyond 25 races per year and with that I certainly already hope Max stays the only driver ever to lead over 800 laps in a year not even talking a 1,000 laps.
Vettel so far was the only driver ever to lead more than 700 laps in 2011 (739 laps or 65.2%) breaking Mansell’s amazing record of 694 laps (67.0% of laps) in 1992. Mansell was the first driver to pass through the 600 laps and almost 700 laps as he broke Senna’s record of 553 laps (53.6% of laps) in 1988. Senna was not the first driver to lead 500 laps, that was Jim Clark in 1963 when he lead 506 in 1963 an amazing 71.5% of available laps.
Max now has broken both records:
1) # of laps obviously aided by more races/more laps available to lead but still he broke Vettel’s record by more than 200 laps becoming not only the first driver to lead 800 laps in a season but also 900 laps with a chance to get beyond a staggering 1,000 laps.
2) Far more impressive considering the longer season, more races and far more laps, Max has also already broken Jim Clark’s 60 year old record of highest % of laps in the lead, even if he doesn’t lead a single lap in Abu Dhabi.
1963 Jim Clark 506 of 708 laps = 71.47%
2023 Max Verstappen 951 of 1,325 laps = 71.77% with a max of 1,009 of 1,325 laps = 76.15%
Keith Campbell (@keithedin)
22nd November 2023, 9:03
Jere (@jerejj)
22nd November 2023, 11:13
Old rivals, final showdown – I expect Mercedes to remain ahead, but either way is possible.
A winning end to F1’s most dominant season? – Yes or most likely.
The battle at the back – Williams should be safe for P7 & I also expect the other three to remain in their current positions since points opportunities under normal circumstances are scarce or next-to-non-existent, & Yas Marina Circuit is unlikely to provide a race with more unusual results.
Saying “prost!” to Tost, AlphaTauri and Alfa Romeo – Indeed, although no driver goodbyes in any team this time around.
Junior jamboree – I don’t understand Red Bull’s novel approach as the only team to leave both requirements until the very last minute as that has some risks, for example, if one of them happened to become sick shortly before FP1, although in that case, they could use Iwasa instead.
Additionally, yes, FP1 is rather useless for qualifying & race, but still, not having either full-time driver participating in that session hands a marginal advantage to their closest rivals with at least one in all three sessions acclimatization-wise, i.e., finding the limits with current-spec car on a particular track, setup options, etc.
Hopefully, next season all teams will use earlier viable opportunities rather than leaving everything in the late-season phase, especially in a place like Montmelo, which surprisingly no team used this season despite being season 2 for technical reg cycle rather than season 1 like 12 months or so earlier.
A glimpse of the future? – Yes.
sumedh
22nd November 2023, 11:14
1,000 laps will be awesome. Although seeing him win has been boring, I hope he gets that.
Mercedes vs Ferrari, I think both teams value the additional wind tunnel time from finishing 3rd more than the prize money from finishing 2nd. Don’t be surprised if either of the teams suddenly develop issues at the close of the Abu Dhabi race. Or if the cars are deliberately run low so that it gets disqualified when it goes for plank inspection
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
22nd November 2023, 13:25
Running low is risky cause THAT is the one time your car won’t be checked, you will end 2nd and have less wind tunnel!
As for mercedes, they had a single mechanical retirement last year and it was hamilton at the last race, I think they still would’ve come behind ferrari even without that, but definitely suspicious after what you said.
melanos
22nd November 2023, 23:45
I was thinking that exactly. Only the winner team is remembered, so there is little glory in being 2nd rather than 3rd. And the prize money difference is probably not that important for Fezza nor Merc.
The wind tunnel allocation is a reward for incompetence and a disincentive to win, and I loathe that. Maybe it a few more seasons there will be no winners and everybody will get the same trophy just for participating.
Dex
22nd November 2023, 13:14
Let’s be real, there’s nothing real to talk about in regards to this GP. The end of season is usually the time to recapitulate the season and all that, but I don’t feel the need for that either. That’s already been (over)done. I’m glad that I’m not a journalist, having to pretend there’s something interesting to talk about. There will be, but in a few months, after the first tests, the first race and so on. There are no driver changes even, not a single one (with only one possibility left, but I expect that even Sargeant will keep his job for some reason); so there’s not even that easy way to create topics and write articles about.
For me personally, this will be the time to focus on other things and interests, until February at least. And frankly, seasons are way too long now; I could do without F1 in any case. It was never weekly entertainment, and it’s really not suitable for that; despite their greedy attempts to make it so.
Yes (@come-on-kubica)
22nd November 2023, 13:33
Finally this season is ending at probably the worst track of them all. How they had an unlimited budget and made that is beyond me.
Bullfrog (@bullfrog)
22nd November 2023, 14:35
Plenty O’Drivers, none O’Them Irish.
A good thing in hindsight that they weren’t given first practice in Las Vegas, but the way the teams are (ab)using this rule says it needs changing. I say let ’em race in the sprints.
MichaelN
22nd November 2023, 16:58
I forgot Mekies was heading to Red Bull 2. They’d better ‘find’ some ‘inspiration’ that may or may not resemble the Red Bull 1 cars, because this is a pretty questionable hire. Especially given how he was keen to ‘pursue new career opportunities’ the second Binotto was finally and belatedly ousted last season. Binotto and Mekies oversaw some of the worst years Ferrari has seen for many decades, and while the ‘Ferrari clowns on the pitwall’ meme preceded him, Mekies arguably made it worse, with Leclerc’s ruined Hungarian GP in 2022 being perhaps the low point.