Two significant variables could play a major role in determining the outcome of this weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix.
The first has been known for some time. The new restrictions on how teams can help drivers perfect their starts – explained in detail here – has been the subject of much debate over the past weeks.
It’s been welcomed by some, rejected by others, but even those who are sceptical about its purpose suspect it could shake things up, if only in the short term. “I think we have done plenty of starts before, all of us,” said Sebastian Vettel after qualifying today. “In the end it is not a massive change. I think what people were trying to do is not going to happen.”
“Maybe tomorrow there’s a bit of chaos but after some races it will be back to it was.”
Drivers’ position change on lap one
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Spa’s unique opening sequence has a tendency to produce drama. There are almost two starts at Spa – the hectic dash into the La Source hairpin, scene of the notorious 2012 crash – and then the long drag to Les Combes via Eau Rouge, which rewards those who get a good slipstream.
It will be intriguing to discover whether, now the drivers have to make the final pre-start tweaks without their engineers’ help, we see some drivers who used to start well getting away poorly, and vice-versa (see data above). Mercedes occupy the front row as usual but starts have been a headache for them recently anyway, so Valtteri Bottas (third on the grid) and Sergio Perez (fourth) must like their chances of getting into the lead.
After that comes the second big question of the weekend – just how well will the soft tyres last? The disruption to Friday practice prevented teams from covering significant mileage on the rubber, and there is the added doubt over the cause of Nico Rosberg’s spectacular tyre failure.
The soft tyre is likely to be preferred by times due to the considerable performance disadvantage offered by the medium. The short life of the soft tyre could make a two or even three-stop strategy the way to go. However the reasonably high chance of a Safety Car interruption at Spa may make the latter too much of a gamble.
Lewis Hamilton has his tenth pole position of the year but he hasn’t been in the lead at the end of lap one in any of the last three races. He was very strong in the middle part of the lap today, but the speed trap figures raise the possibility that Rosberg may have a little less wing angle on his car, potentially making him more of a threat on the straights in the race.
Behind them the grid has an unusual form with the Ferraris languishing in the middle of the pack and the likes of Perez near the sharp end. Don’t discount the Lotus drivers either, both of which reached Q3 with Romain Grosjean a very strong fourth before his penalty. As in Hungary, we could see some unfamiliar names taking big points away tomorrow.
However one variable we can most likely eliminate at this stage is the threat of rain. Although some is still forecast tomorrow, it is not likely to arrive until long after the race finishes.
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Qualifying times in full
Driver | Car | Q1 | Q2 (vs Q1) | Q3 (vs Q2) | |
1 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1’48.908 | 1’48.024 (-0.884) | 1’47.197 (-0.827) |
2 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | 1’48.923 | 1’47.955 (-0.968) | 1’47.655 (-0.300) |
3 | Valtteri Bottas | Williams | 1’49.026 | 1’49.044 (+0.018) | 1’48.537 (-0.507) |
4 | Romain Grosjean | Lotus | 1’49.353 | 1’48.981 (-0.372) | 1’48.561 (-0.420) |
5 | Sergio Perez | Force India | 1’49.006 | 1’48.792 (-0.214) | 1’48.599 (-0.193) |
6 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | 1’49.664 | 1’49.042 (-0.622) | 1’48.639 (-0.403) |
7 | Felipe Massa | Williams | 1’49.688 | 1’48.806 (-0.882) | 1’48.685 (-0.121) |
8 | Pastor Maldonado | Lotus | 1’49.568 | 1’48.956 (-0.612) | 1’48.754 (-0.202) |
9 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 1’49.264 | 1’48.761 (-0.503) | 1’48.825 (+0.064) |
10 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Toro Rosso | 1’49.109 | 1’49.065 (-0.044) | 1’49.771 (+0.706) |
11 | Nico Hulkenberg | Force India | 1’49.499 | 1’49.121 (-0.378) | |
12 | Daniil Kvyat | Red Bull | 1’49.469 | 1’49.228 (-0.241) | |
13 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | 1’49.523 | 1’49.586 (+0.063) | |
14 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1’49.288 | ||
15 | Max Verstappen | Toro Rosso | 1’49.831 | ||
16 | Felipe Nasr | Sauber | 1’49.952 | ||
17 | Jenson Button | McLaren | 1’50.978 | ||
18 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren | 1’51.420 | ||
19 | Will Stevens | Manor | 1’52.948 | ||
20 | Roberto Merhi | Manor | 1’53.099 |
Sector times
Driver | Sector 1 | Sector 2 | Sector 3 |
---|---|---|---|
Lewis Hamilton | 30.593 (3) | 47.786 (1) | 28.818 (1) |
Nico Rosberg | 30.509 (1) | 48.239 (2) | 28.851 (2) |
Valtteri Bottas | 30.918 (10) | 48.385 (4) | 29.022 (3) |
Romain Grosjean | 30.842 (8) | 48.518 (5) | 29.177 (11) |
Sergio Perez | 30.579 (2) | 48.865 (10) | 29.088 (7) |
Daniel Ricciardo | 31.128 (12) | 48.317 (3) | 29.194 (12) |
Felipe Massa | 30.774 (5) | 48.722 (8) | 29.045 (4) |
Pastor Maldonado | 30.882 (9) | 48.536 (6) | 29.215 (13) |
Sebastian Vettel | 30.726 (4) | 48.871 (11) | 29.062 (5) |
Carlos Sainz Jnr | 31.023 (11) | 48.844 (9) | 29.159 (10) |
Nico Hulkenberg | 30.836 (7) | 49.014 (12) | 29.129 (9) |
Daniil Kvyat | 31.298 (15) | 48.574 (7) | 29.334 (15) |
Marcus Ericsson | 31.198 (13) | 49.028 (13) | 29.290 (14) |
Kimi Raikkonen | 30.781 (6) | 49.256 (15) | 29.106 (8) |
Max Verstappen | 31.243 (14) | 49.367 (16) | 29.076 (6) |
Felipe Nasr | 31.402 (16) | 49.184 (14) | 29.366 (16) |
Jenson Button | 31.751 (17) | 49.393 (17) | 29.834 (17) |
Fernando Alonso | 31.761 (18) | 49.759 (18) | 29.900 (18) |
Will Stevens | 32.154 (19) | 50.606 (20) | 30.188 (19) |
Roberto Merhi | 32.349 (20) | 50.402 (19) | 30.348 (20) |
Speed trap
Pos | Driver | Car | Engine | Speed (kph/mph) | Gap |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | Mercedes | 317.2 (197.1) | |
2 | Sergio Perez | Force India | Mercedes | 317.1 (197.0) | -0.1 |
3 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Mercedes | 316.3 (196.5) | -0.9 |
4 | Romain Grosjean | Lotus | Mercedes | 315.8 (196.2) | -1.4 |
5 | Nico Hulkenberg | Force India | Mercedes | 314.8 (195.6) | -2.4 |
6 | Pastor Maldonado | Lotus | Mercedes | 314.4 (195.4) | -2.8 |
7 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | Ferrari | 314.4 (195.4) | -2.8 |
8 | Felipe Massa | Williams | Mercedes | 314.1 (195.2) | -3.1 |
9 | Valtteri Bottas | Williams | Mercedes | 313.0 (194.5) | -4.2 |
10 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | Ferrari | 312.0 (193.9) | -5.2 |
11 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Toro Rosso | Renault | 310.5 (192.9) | -6.7 |
12 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | Ferrari | 309.1 (192.1) | -8.1 |
13 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | Renault | 309.1 (192.1) | -8.1 |
14 | Max Verstappen | Toro Rosso | Renault | 308.6 (191.8) | -8.6 |
15 | Daniil Kvyat | Red Bull | Renault | 306.2 (190.3) | -11.0 |
16 | Felipe Nasr | Sauber | Ferrari | 306.2 (190.3) | -11.0 |
17 | Jenson Button | McLaren | Honda | 304.6 (189.3) | -12.6 |
18 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren | Honda | 303.2 (188.4) | -14.0 |
19 | Will Stevens | Manor | Ferrari | 299.5 (186.1) | -17.7 |
20 | Roberto Merhi | Manor | Ferrari | 299.5 (186.1) | -17.7 |
Over to you
Will Hamilton and Rosberg avoid tangling this year? What can Perez do from fourth on the grid? And what can the Ferrari drivers salvage from their poor grid positions?
Share your views on the Belgian Grand Prix in the comments.
2015 Belgian Grand Prix
- “If drivers respect track limits there’s no problem” – Spa responds to Pirelli over ‘debris’
- Podium earns Grosjean Driver of the Weekend win
- Track limits and DRS raise ire at Spa
- Top ten pictures from the 2015 Belgian Grand Prix
- 2015 Belgian Grand Prix team radio transcript
lockup (@)
22nd August 2015, 20:12
Watching Ant’s side-by-side on the skypad of Lewis and Nico’s Q3 laps I see Lewis lost a bit through Eau Rouge, like he did last year. I still think that’s his worst corner on the tour, and it makes me nervous!
Feuerdrache (@xenomorph91)
22nd August 2015, 23:21
@lockup: Don’t worry, Rosberg will most likely be passed by Bottas into La Source whilst Hamilton drives Spa one-handed up ahead as he is unchallenged.
Feuerdrache (@xenomorph91)
22nd August 2015, 23:52
But having seen the 24h weather radar from wetteronline (.de), it might be raining during the race.
Sean Doyle (@spdoyle17)
22nd August 2015, 22:15
Hoping for: Both Mercs to bungle the start so bad Bottas and Pérez fight for the lead through the first stint while pit problems continue to ruin Mercedes’ race.
More Likely: Pérez gets past Bottas and Rosberg passes Hamilton on Kemmel, Hamilton undercuts Rosberg and then fades into the distance, while the drama of the day is the other Germans as they work their way up the field. Expecting the final stint to be a frustrating one for this Pérez fan as Vettel snagging third in the latter stages from Pérez seems very realistic. Here’s hoping at least that Maldonado has to retire on lap one without impeding anyone else’s race.
At this moment I am expecting a HAM-ROS-VET-PER-BOT-MAS-HUL-RAI-RIC-GRO points order.
Albert
22nd August 2015, 22:18
My optimistic side hopes for a good start again from Ferrari and a very good run on the softs, hopefully it is enough for a recovery to third. We may eve have some rain to help things out!
My pessimistic side (with a dash of realism seeing the performance of Merc-powered teams) expects a difficult race, in which Ferrari PU deficit will be even more evident.
Harry Curtis (@baz888)
22nd August 2015, 23:34
I really hope we get some excitement at the start with people changing positions far more. With some luck we will get a unpredictable race like Hungary, and get a unexpected winner. However, I expect that it’ll be Mercedes 1,2 with Bottas 3rd and Vettel 4th, with a close race behind for the remaining places.
@HoHum (@hohum)
23rd August 2015, 1:14
I’m not wishing misfortune on anyone I hope for a collision free race with skill and a little luck assisting the power deficient, I’m hoping DanR gets a good clean start and can get a tow from the FI and FWRs until he can use his sector 2 speed to get into a podium position, any thing more than that will depend on error or misfortune for the MBs.