Will Lewis Hamilton really have as much trouble getting back to the front of the field in Russia as he says he expects to?
After all, just two years ago Nico Rosberg recovered to finish second despite being forced to pit on the first lap of the race.
As things stand, Hamilton will line up tenth on the grid for Sunday’s race. He is only on his second engine so he will not be penalised is he takes a third. But he is already locked in to starting the race on the super-soft tyres he used in Q2 just before the power unit failure which harpooned his chances of taking pole position.
The first job for Hamilton tomorrow is to stay out of trouble on the run through turn two. This has proced a trouble spot in the two years since the Sochi Autodrom opened. Starting on the outside, Hamilton will have to be prepared not only to take avoiding action if there is trouble around him.
And if he does, he must not make the mistake he did in qualifying of not following the correct route back onto the track. He’s only one reprimand away from a ten-place grid penalty – a threat which will hang over him for the rest of the season.
Assuming he makes it through the opening corners unscathed and doesn’t repeat his sluggish getaways of Australia and Bahrain, the potency of the Mercedes engine should help him make progress. Every single Mercedes-powered car was quicker than every single non-Mercedes powered car in the speed trap.
Even so overtaking will be tricky – the slowest car through the speed trap is only 7.2kph down on Hamilton (see below). And the strategy options look decidedly limited for Hamilton and his rivals.
The low-grip nature of the Sochi circuit means the tyres can easy last long enough for a single pit stop to be possible. Had Pirelli chosen to bring the new ultra-soft tyre here things might have been different, but as there wasn’t time to test it before teams had to make their tyre choices for this race, they chose to err on the side of caution.
A two-stop strategy would involve making an early first pit stop, coming in after around a dozen laps while the one-stoppers hang on until closer to lap 20. The risk element of this approach is fairly high if the driver gets stuck in traffic. But the performance advantage Mercedes enjoy anyway plus the fact Hamilton has more sets of new tyres available could make this an attractive choice, especially if he gets stuck in traffic early on. It would certainly play to Hamilton’s attacking style.
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The team have sharpened up their act in the pits this year and with a diminished threat from Red Bull, Bottas is well-placed to avenge. He has good form at this track: he was on the podium in 2014 and would have been last year until Raikkonen took him off. The Ferrari driver lines up right behind him on the grid, so look out for a resumption of hostilities between the two.
Red Bull have had a quieter weekend so far at a circuit which hasn’t suited them very well. However their race pace should be strong. Daniel Ricciardo, who starts fifth, ran a long stint on softs on Friday which suggests the team may be considering an early pit stop and a long run to the end, playing to that strength.
Sergio Perez will occupt Force India’s highest starting position of the year, sixth, at a track where he excelled last season. This is a chance for the team to turn its sluggish start to the season around, although their tyre degradation so far this year hasn’t been as well-managed as it was last season.
Qualifying times in full
| Driver | Car | Q1 | Q2 (vs Q1) | Q3 (vs Q2) | |
| 1 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | 1’36.119 | 1’35.337 (-0.782) | 1’35.417 (+0.080) |
| 2 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 1’36.555 | 1’36.623 (+0.068) | 1’36.123 (-0.500) |
| 3 | Valtteri Bottas | Williams | 1’37.746 | 1’37.140 (-0.606) | 1’36.536 (-0.604) |
| 4 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1’36.976 | 1’36.741 (-0.235) | 1’36.663 (-0.078) |
| 5 | Felipe Massa | Williams | 1’37.753 | 1’37.230 (-0.523) | 1’37.016 (-0.214) |
| 6 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | 1’38.091 | 1’37.569 (-0.522) | 1’37.125 (-0.444) |
| 7 | Sergio Perez | Force India | 1’38.006 | 1’37.282 (-0.724) | 1’37.212 (-0.070) |
| 8 | Daniil Kvyat | Red Bull | 1’38.265 | 1’37.606 (-0.659) | 1’37.459 (-0.147) |
| 9 | Max Verstappen | Toro Rosso | 1’38.123 | 1’37.510 (-0.613) | 1’37.583 (+0.073) |
| 10 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1’36.006 | 1’35.820 (-0.186) | |
| 11 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Toro Rosso | 1’37.784 | 1’37.652 (-0.132) | |
| 12 | Jenson Button | McLaren | 1’38.332 | 1’37.701 (-0.631) | |
| 13 | Nico Hulkenberg | Force India | 1’38.562 | 1’37.771 (-0.791) | |
| 14 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren | 1’37.971 | 1’37.807 (-0.164) | |
| 15 | Romain Grosjean | Haas | 1’38.383 | 1’38.055 (-0.328) | |
| 16 | Esteban Gutierrez | Haas | 1’38.678 | 1’38.115 (-0.563) | |
| 17 | Kevin Magnussen | Renault | 1’38.914 | ||
| 18 | Jolyon Palmer | Renault | 1’39.009 | ||
| 19 | Felipe Nasr | Sauber | 1’39.018 | ||
| 20 | Pascal Wehrlein | Manor | 1’39.399 | ||
| 21 | Rio Haryanto | Manor | 1’39.463 | ||
| 22 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | 1’39.519 |
Sector times
| Driver | Sector 1 | Sector 2 | Sector 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Rosberg | 34.056 (1) | 32.760 (1) | 28.367 (1) |
| Sebastian Vettel | 34.300 (3) | 32.964 (2) | 28.749 (3) |
| Valtteri Bottas | 34.360 (4) | 33.251 (5) | 28.877 (6) |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 34.371 (5) | 33.191 (4) | 28.849 (5) |
| Felipe Massa | 34.511 (7) | 33.433 (6) | 29.072 (9) |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 34.803 (13) | 33.442 (7) | 28.774 (4) |
| Sergio Perez | 34.419 (6) | 33.532 (8) | 29.105 (10) |
| Daniil Kvyat | 34.798 (12) | 33.657 (11) | 28.882 (7) |
| Max Verstappen | 34.694 (9) | 33.582 (9) | 29.111 (11) |
| Lewis Hamilton | 34.057 (2) | 33.079 (3) | 28.684 (2) |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | 34.682 (8) | 33.637 (10) | 29.153 (12) |
| Jenson Button | 34.780 (11) | 33.682 (13) | 29.200 (13) |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 34.737 (10) | 33.753 (15) | 29.208 (14) |
| Fernando Alonso | 35.003 (18) | 33.673 (12) | 29.062 (8) |
| Romain Grosjean | 34.855 (15) | 33.797 (16) | 29.322 (16) |
| Esteban Gutierrez | 34.809 (14) | 33.737 (14) | 29.287 (15) |
| Kevin Magnussen | 35.115 (19) | 34.043 (17) | 29.450 (18) |
| Jolyon Palmer | 35.193 (22) | 34.230 (18) | 29.432 (17) |
| Felipe Nasr | 35.123 (21) | 34.324 (19) | 29.556 (19) |
| Pascal Wehrlein | 34.978 (17) | 34.366 (21) | 29.985 (22) |
| Rio Haryanto | 34.875 (16) | 34.442 (22) | 29.797 (20) |
| Marcus Ericsson | 35.118 (20) | 34.354 (20) | 29.981 (21) |
Speed trap
| Pos | Driver | Car | Engine | Speed (kph/mph) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rio Haryanto | Manor | Mercedes | 333.0 (206.9) | |
| 2 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | Mercedes | 331.6 (206.0) | -1.4 |
| 3 | Sergio Perez | Force India | Mercedes | 330.7 (205.5) | -2.3 |
| 4 | Felipe Massa | Williams | Mercedes | 330.7 (205.5) | -2.3 |
| 5 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Mercedes | 330.5 (205.4) | -2.5 |
| 6 | Valtteri Bottas | Williams | Mercedes | 330.5 (205.4) | -2.5 |
| 7 | Pascal Wehrlein | Manor | Mercedes | 330.3 (205.2) | -2.7 |
| 8 | Nico Hulkenberg | Force India | Mercedes | 330.1 (205.1) | -2.9 |
| 9 | Romain Grosjean | Haas | Ferrari | 329.2 (204.6) | -3.8 |
| 10 | Esteban Gutierrez | Haas | Ferrari | 328.9 (204.4) | -4.1 |
| 11 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | Ferrari | 328.2 (203.9) | -4.8 |
| 12 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | Ferrari | 328.0 (203.8) | -5.0 |
| 13 | Jenson Button | McLaren | Honda | 327.0 (203.2) | -6.0 |
| 14 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Toro Rosso | Ferrari | 326.0 (202.6) | -7.0 |
| 15 | Max Verstappen | Toro Rosso | Ferrari | 325.6 (202.3) | -7.4 |
| 16 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | Ferrari | 325.4 (202.2) | -7.6 |
| 17 | Jolyon Palmer | Renault | Renault | 325.3 (202.1) | -7.7 |
| 18 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | TAG Heuer | 325.1 (202.0) | -7.9 |
| 19 | Kevin Magnussen | Renault | Renault | 324.8 (201.8) | -8.2 |
| 20 | Felipe Nasr | Sauber | Ferrari | 324.2 (201.4) | -8.8 |
| 21 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren | Honda | 324.1 (201.4) | -8.9 |
| 22 | Daniil Kvyat | Red Bull | TAG Heuer | 323.3 (200.9) | -9.7 |
Over to you
How high can Hamilton climb in Russia? Will this be another straightforward win for Rosberg? And can Bottas deliver a podium for Williams?
Share your views on the Russian Grand Prix in the comments.
2016 Russian Grand Prix
- Another weak race shows Sochi is the new Valencia
- Magnussen beats grand slam Rosberg for Driver of the Weekend
- 2016 Russian Grand Prix team radio transcript
- 2016 Russian Grand Prix Predictions Championship results
- Top ten pictures from the 2016 Russian Grand Prix
Andy (@andybantam)
30th April 2016, 20:59
I’m hoping for ‘Championship’ drives from Vettel and Hamilton tomorrow. The entertainment depends on it!
sunny stivala
1st May 2016, 4:11
As soon as car 44 went out the pits (starts qualifying) it is regarded as being under parc-frame rules, since car 44 is under those rules it means he will either start from 10th on the grid with a broken engine or if he needs to change engine, turbo or MGU-H, it will be a back of the grid start.
The 10 grid place start was were he qualified at, and nothing to do with needing an engine change.
Andy (@andybantam)
1st May 2016, 21:04
Ok. Thanks?
Kribana (@krichelle)
30th April 2016, 21:06
Bottas with a williams on the front row behind Rosberg… I do not want another Mercedes in trouble tomorrow at turn 1 even though I am thinking that Bottas could jump Nico at the start. It’s been a messy start during the first 3 races so I really want everyone getting out of the first couple of corners in one piece particularly Vettel and Hamilton.
glynh (@glynh)
30th April 2016, 21:19
Hopefully vettel gets a clean start and puts some pressure on rosberg alternatively I’ll settle for the top 5 tangling at the start…
I’m supporting rosberg really but I want him to fight for the win.
ruliemaulana (@ruliemaulana)
30th April 2016, 21:22
Now I knew why Haryanto wins on GP2 always came from reversed grid race. He always on top speed trap record. He knew how to speedup his car on straight lane preventing all other drivers to easily pass him. But he really need to learn how to take corner faster too.
Johannes (@johanness)
1st May 2016, 4:47
Which is why “overtaking will be tricky – the slowest car through the speed trap is only 7.2kph down on Hamilton” has zero to do with anything. LH will easily pass anyone he likes on his way to 2nd. All this ‘it’s gonna be tough’ malarkey is laughable.
Johannes (@johanness)
1st May 2016, 16:03
SHOCKER
sunny stivala
1st May 2016, 6:46
“Rio Haryanto is a guy who has measured himself against Vandoome and beaten him twice” Adrian Campos.
Franton
30th April 2016, 21:36
Meh, championship is now a foregone conclusion. With further penalties in line later in the season for Hamilton, it will now take a couple DNF’s for Rosberg for anyone else to be in contention this year. In short, it’s already been handed to Rosberg by nothing more than sheer luck. I would like to see some race wins by honest effort and skill rather than being handed it on a plate.
Even in 1988 with the ridiculously dominant McLaren MP4/4, the drivers swapped wins (excluding Italian GP) between them. This so far has been one of the worst starts to an F1 season I’ve ever seen unless you happen to be a fan of Rosberg.
Jean
30th April 2016, 21:53
Luck is part of what makes a driver a champion ….
Nevertheless people still forgot how rosberg was very eficcient in the last 6 races …. never commiting any mistake …. this is not luck ….
Feuerdrache (@xenomorph91)
30th April 2016, 22:20
Luck, as you call it, striked Hamilton only by China. The five races before, he had no troubles and finished behind Rosberg.
Franton
30th April 2016, 23:04
What total rubbish. Dragging clutch on both Mercs at Australia. Slow get away led to getting clipped and a new front wing. Dragging clutch AGAIN in Bahrain and then speared by that idiot Bottas who came in too hot into turn one. ERS failure in China and again in Russia and you say no troubles?
Oh and your false comparison with the last three races of the previous season with a different car? Why not go all the way and compare to the McLaren MP4/4 of 1988?
Ben (@scuderia29)
30th April 2016, 23:12
The first 3 races have been brilliant, I have no idea how you can view the start of the season as bad. I reckon you’re a Hamilton fan and if he doesn’t win you think the race was rubbish, 2016 has been great so far and there is a longgg way to go, no one has ever wrapped up a championship in the first 3 races haha come on man
Kgn11
1st May 2016, 0:02
And when he wins you label it boring. You see the double standards?
Mike
1st May 2016, 0:12
The silly thing is we have so far to go. Hamilton, if his luck turns, is more than capable of taking the fight to Rosberg for the championship. I’m not a Lewis fan, but no doubt he is damn, damn fast.
Franton
1st May 2016, 9:37
Lewis has to win the next six races to pass Nico’s points tally. Given use of extra engine components, he can expect further penalties this year too when (not if) he runs out. Given all that, you wonder why I’m a tad pessimistic?
I’m more annoyed with the rules than anything else. This penalising the driver for things out of his/her control is an utter joke. I’d much rather see team penalties for such infractions. May spice up the constructors championship a bit.
David
1st May 2016, 10:07
I’m afraid this is a cynical attempt by the Mercedes team to win back German fans.
Franton
1st May 2016, 9:34
Because we’ve not seen racing? We’ve seen technical issues determine grid order and eventual finishing positions. We’ve also seen some F1 drivers think they’re in a demolition derby rather than a race. So no, I don’t know what races you were watching but it wasn’t what I saw. Every race this year has either been determined by the end of qualifying or the end of lap one.
Drg
30th April 2016, 23:19
Are you crazy?
Your own words – taking a third engine in four races..
And starting at the back and then tenth..?
No Keith – everything is just fine and nothing is making NR year look like a travesty championship win.
Drg
30th April 2016, 23:23
Oh sorry – not your words given the vageries of engine bits but the reality is similar.
One assumes..
Mike Dee (@mike-dee)
1st May 2016, 0:30
Do we know whether Hamilton can use the engine from qualifying? If not, can he change without penalty?
Optimaximal (@optimaximal)
1st May 2016, 1:18
@mike-dee He won’t be penalised, but changing an engine is a parc-ferme breach and Hamilton will either need to start from the back of the field or the pit lane.
Karthik M
1st May 2016, 8:42
Isn’t the Sochi track very thirsty? Could Hamilton go for a flat out drive here, regardless of how many sets of new tyres he has? I think they will just play safe with a one stopper here…
S (J.C) Etienne
1st May 2016, 8:45
Looks like a third easy win for Rosberg in 2016; I rather put a ferrari on the podium and P3 or P4 for Lewis with no incident, but will be difficult (the difference in performance with the other cars is not as in 2014 where they were almost 2 seconds faster per lap than everyone else).