The two championship contenders occupy the front row of the grid at Suzuka. It’s hard not to be reminded of the many past occasions that provided the scene for an epic race.
In 1997 it was Jacques Villeneuve and Michael Schumacher. Three years before that it was Schumacher up against Damon Hill.
And of course F1’s most notorious rivalry was forged at this track. Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost locked out the front row of the grid for three years in a row at Suzuka. On the last of those occasions, Senna didn’t let Prost get as far as turn two.
You only need to look back as far as Singapore for a reminder of how uncompromising Vettel can be at the start of a race. But what he really needs is for Hamilton to have the kind of disastrous start which wounded his title hopes at this race 12 months ago.
Although he’s won twice at this track, Suzuka hasn’t always been a happy hunting ground for Hamilton. “Every single time I’ve struggled here,” he admitted after qualifying. “Struggled with finding the right balance, often not starting on the right foot and then just struggling. Sometimes I’ve started on the right foot and led the car in completely the wrong direction.”
But on his ninth visit to Suzuka he appears to have nailed it. “This is the first time, and I would say definitely the first car, that I’ve really felt that it’s been underneath me all weekend,” he said. “Small tweaks here and there but in the right direction. So, I think fundamentally a better job done globally. Particularly with my engineers.”
However Hamilton is wary of the season-long traits of his car and Vettel’s. “Generally we take step a bit slower when we get to the races, whereas the Ferraris do the opposite.”
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If Vettel can’t get ahead of Hamilton at the start, might the race strategy open up an opportunity for him? Pirelli have suggested this race might buck the recent trend of one-stoppers, particularly if conditions continue to get warmer as forecast.
Suzuka has a fairly short pit lane so the time penalty of making an extra pit stop is not as high as elsewhere. The crucial point will be whether the championship leaders can make early pit stops and come out in clear air. The position of their team mates, both of which are starting further back, will therefore become important. There would be no point for Vettel to make an early first pit stop if he’s just going to get stuck behind Bottas.
The Red Bull pair should be in better shape in race conditions as well. They have diverged slightly on set-up, Daniel Ricciardo carrying less wing than Max Verstappen in the home it will make him more competitive on the straights.
And of course should any drama break out between the title rivals, the two Red Bulls are perfectly placed to collect another win.
Qualifying times in full
| Driver | Car | Q1 | Q2 (vs Q1) | Q3 (vs Q2) | |
| 1 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1’29.047 | 1’27.819 (-1.228) | 1’27.319 (-0.500) |
| 2 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | 1’29.332 | 1’28.543 (-0.789) | 1’27.651 (-0.892) |
| 3 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 1’29.352 | 1’28.225 (-1.127) | 1’27.791 (-0.434) |
| 4 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | 1’29.475 | 1’28.935 (-0.540) | 1’28.306 (-0.629) |
| 5 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 1’29.181 | 1’28.747 (-0.434) | 1’28.332 (-0.415) |
| 6 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1’29.163 | 1’29.079 (-0.084) | 1’28.498 (-0.581) |
| 7 | Esteban Ocon | Force India | 1’30.115 | 1’29.199 (-0.916) | 1’29.111 (-0.088) |
| 8 | Sergio Perez | Force India | 1’29.696 | 1’29.343 (-0.353) | 1’29.260 (-0.083) |
| 9 | Felipe Massa | Williams | 1’30.352 | 1’29.687 (-0.665) | 1’29.480 (-0.207) |
| 10 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren | 1’30.525 | 1’29.749 (-0.776) | 1’30.687 (+0.938) |
| 11 | Stoffel Vandoorne | McLaren | 1’30.654 | 1’29.778 (-0.876) | |
| 12 | Nico Hulkenberg | Renault | 1’30.252 | 1’29.879 (-0.373) | |
| 13 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas | 1’30.774 | 1’29.972 (-0.802) | |
| 14 | Jolyon Palmer | Renault | 1’30.516 | 1’30.022 (-0.494) | |
| 15 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Toro Rosso | 1’30.565 | 1’30.413 (-0.152) | |
| 16 | Romain Grosjean | Haas | 1’30.849 | ||
| 17 | Pierre Gasly | Toro Rosso | 1’31.317 | ||
| 18 | Lance Stroll | Williams | 1’31.409 | ||
| 19 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | 1’31.597 | ||
| 20 | Pascal Wehrlein | Sauber | 1’31.885 |
Sector times
| Driver | Sector 1 | Sector 2 | Sector 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Hamilton | 30.625 (1) | 39.394 (1) | 17.211 (1) |
| Valtteri Bottas | 30.883 (2) | 39.530 (2) | 17.238 (2) |
| Sebastian Vettel | 30.903 (3) | 39.566 (3) | 17.289 (4) |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 31.157 (5) | 39.687 (4) | 17.462 (6) |
| Max Verstappen | 31.020 (4) | 39.820 (5) | 17.492 (7) |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 31.314 (6) | 39.911 (6) | 17.273 (3) |
| Esteban Ocon | 31.381 (7) | 40.083 (7) | 17.520 (8) |
| Sergio Perez | 31.419 (9) | 40.226 (8) | 17.455 (5) |
| Felipe Massa | 31.555 (11) | 40.263 (9) | 17.588 (9) |
| Fernando Alonso | 31.402 (8) | 40.459 (11) | 17.768 (15) |
| Stoffel Vandoorne | 31.550 (10) | 40.500 (13) | 17.728 (14) |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 31.909 (16) | 40.292 (10) | 17.620 (10) |
| Kevin Magnussen | 31.722 (12) | 40.601 (14) | 17.649 (12) |
| Jolyon Palmer | 31.879 (14) | 40.484 (12) | 17.622 (11) |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | 31.903 (15) | 40.678 (15) | 17.725 (13) |
| Romain Grosjean | 31.870 (13) | 41.103 (18) | 17.876 (17) |
| Pierre Gasly | 32.517 (19) | 40.947 (17) | 17.853 (16) |
| Lance Stroll | 32.151 (17) | 40.940 (16) | 18.081 (20) |
| Marcus Ericsson | 32.365 (18) | 41.283 (19) | 17.949 (19) |
| Pascal Wehrlein | 32.550 (20) | 41.449 (20) | 17.886 (18) |
Speed trap
| Pos | Driver | Car | Engine | Speed (kph/mph) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | Ferrari | 311.6 (193.6) | |
| 2 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | Mercedes | 308.3 (191.6) | -3.3 |
| 3 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Mercedes | 307.9 (191.3) | -3.7 |
| 4 | Sergio Perez | Force India | Mercedes | 307.6 (191.1) | -4.0 |
| 5 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | Ferrari | 306.3 (190.3) | -5.3 |
| 6 | Esteban Ocon | Force India | Mercedes | 303.6 (188.6) | -8.0 |
| 7 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | TAG Heuer | 301.3 (187.2) | -10.3 |
| 8 | Felipe Massa | Williams | Mercedes | 301.2 (187.2) | -10.4 |
| 9 | Lance Stroll | Williams | Mercedes | 301.0 (187.0) | -10.6 |
| 10 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas | Ferrari | 300.2 (186.5) | -11.4 |
| 11 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | Ferrari | 299.0 (185.8) | -12.6 |
| 12 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren | Honda | 298.1 (185.2) | -13.5 |
| 13 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | TAG Heuer | 297.3 (184.7) | -14.3 |
| 14 | Pascal Wehrlein | Sauber | Ferrari | 297.1 (184.6) | -14.5 |
| 15 | Jolyon Palmer | Renault | Renault | 297.1 (184.6) | -14.5 |
| 16 | Romain Grosjean | Haas | Ferrari | 296.5 (184.2) | -15.1 |
| 17 | Stoffel Vandoorne | McLaren | Honda | 296.3 (184.1) | -15.3 |
| 18 | Nico Hulkenberg | Renault | Renault | 296.1 (184.0) | -15.5 |
| 19 | Pierre Gasly | Toro Rosso | Renault | 295.7 (183.7) | -15.9 |
| 20 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Toro Rosso | Renault | 295.2 (183.4) | -16.4 |
Drivers remaining tyres
| Driver | Team | Medium | Soft | Super-soft | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New | Used | New | Used | New | Used | ||
| Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Sergio Perez | Force India | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Esteban Ocon | Force India | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Felipe Massa | Williams | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Lance Stroll | Williams | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Fernando Alonso | McLaren | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Stoffel Vandoorne | McLaren | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | Toro Rosso | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Romain Grosjean | Haas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Kevin Magnussen | Haas | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | Renault | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Jolyon Palmer | Renault | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Pascal Wehrlein | Sauber | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Over to you
In whose favour will the championship turn tomorrow? And how will Valtteri Bottas and Kimi Raikkonen fare from their compromised starting positions?
Share your views on the Japanese Grand Prix in the comments.
2017 Japanese Grand Prix
- 2017 Japanese Grand Prix Predictions Championship results
- 2017 Japanese Grand Prix team radio transcript
- 2017 Japanese Grand Prix Star Performers
- “It’s been a pleasure”: Japanese GP team radio highlights
- Hamilton on course to equal Schumacher’s 91 wins record in 2020
Julian (Mr. Sakura) (@xiasitlo)
7th October 2017, 21:18
If Lewis finishes 1st and Seb 3rd for every race until and including Mexico, Lewis wins it in Mexico as I predicted and I believe he’ll give the final punch to Sebs morale tomorrow. So WDC is actually done here. The Mercedes has been running without chaotic engine woes since winter-testing, so or it happens tomorrow, or it doesn’t matter any more.
Tomorrow humidity is too high, track temp too low. Mercedes will not get into problems with tyre wear. The drag will cause Vettel not to be able to pass Hamilton on track and I believe Bottas will also be able to pass the RBs and get Vettel. The only thing Ferrari has going for him is that he seems to have a more responsive handling into S-curves and the first part of S2, but there is no overtaking possibility there. Kimi could use that to keep the RBs at bay if he jumps them.If Kimi manages that only if he can mess with Lewis in his second stint there can be some chance Vettel can get him late in the game. and even then with the headwind on the back-straight Lewis will probably sail past.
So only a two stop in a regular race with some SC luck can help him, but then Seb has to deal with Bottas or Ricciardo at one point (or Max, poor Seb). And they’ll probably be on fresher tyres as Seb will probably try to undercut Hamilton. So.. end of story for Ferrari it seems.
Palmer will go out in fashion. Like he deserves. McLaren already seems to have passed Renault, but I think that same headwind for S3 will cause the GP2 engine to relegate McLaren to outside the top 10.
lubhz (@lubhz)
7th October 2017, 22:08
I’m not brave enough to make detailed predictions as @xiasitlo, but I set my alarm anyway, although I don’t hold strong hopes for this race. I agree it will be an easy win for Hamilton. The only consolation we may have are some overtakes by Kimi and Botas, and some entertainment provided by the RedBulls.
Fer no.65 (@fer-no65)
7th October 2017, 22:40
Potentially, Hamilton also has the advantage of a closer to the leaders Bottas. Kimi is completely out of position to make Lewis’ life a little bit more difficult. And Mercedes also has the Red Bulls to compromise Seb’s chances, although they could potentially damage Lewis’ races too.
macradar (@macradar)
7th October 2017, 23:46
If all things were equal it would be a really good duel, but in F1 nothing ever is.
Ferrari have special dispensation after dispensation spanning more than 30 years and it is not beyond them out of desperation to get their back Street drivers to lend an helping hand.
Would merc do so? They could or might but somehow I think Toto Woolf has more integrity in his little finger than Ferrari have in their whole body corporate and Lauda even though an ex Ferrari man will have more integrity than to resort to serious subterfuge. Would they whisper in Max’s ear? Who knows?
So a fair fight? Never
David BR (@david-br)
8th October 2017, 0:42
Well, I think things have improved since the nadir of 2008, when Hamilton was given a drive-through penalty at Fuji for –
wait for it – causing Raikkonen to deviate from his path. Just let that sink in: Vettel causes a 4 car DNF at Singapore by sweeping across the track and gets no penalty. Hamilton locks up into the first corner 9 years ago and was deemed to have ‘severely inconvenienced’ a Ferrari driver. Still I think Mercedes probably have enough clout now to make any potential Ferrari-FIA collusion much more difficult.
John H (@john-h)
8th October 2017, 13:09
I still remember that 2008 farce, including the bourdais penalty giving massa a bonus point. Made the final result all the more sweeter though from memory.
Thomson (@fish123)
8th October 2017, 4:10
Think there’s another twist in the tale here still, feel Hamilton’s luck will end soon, my heart still says this is Vettel’s year.
Today’s race: Vettel super aggressive and forces Hamilton wide (drops down order and fights back upto 3rd)
Top 6: Vet, Ric, Ham, Bot, Ver & Per
Puneeth
8th October 2017, 4:44
Curious to know what makes you think he has been lucky so far?
Steve K
8th October 2017, 5:49
He hasn’t been unlucky?
Lewis is the best on the grid. Winner winner.
pSynrg (@psynrg)
8th October 2017, 7:59
@fish123 and now? :D