Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes, Albert Park, 2018

Australia shows Mercedes need Bottas to perform – Hamilton

2018 F1 season

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Lewis Hamilton says the stronger showing from Red Bull and Kimi Raikkonen in Australia means it is more important than ever for Mercedes to have both cars competing at the front.

Mercedes were unable to cover off a twin-pronged attack from Ferrari on Hamilton during the race while Valtteri Bottas, who crashed during qualifying, made his way up from the rear of the field.

Lewis Hamilton, Kimi Raikkonen, Albert Park, 2018
2018 Australian Grand Prix in pictures
“It was one against two,” said Hamilton. “And it’s not easy to fight against a team that has two cars in the mix as one team with one.”

Hamilton predicted his team mate will recover from last weekend’s setback.

“We’ll work together, Valtteri will be working very hard to make sure he’s up there in the mix and fight with us as well. He’s going to be fighting for wins, for sure, it won’t always be as it is today.

“But last year it was important to have both cars up there, maybe now it’s even more important than ever before. Especially with Red Bull being there and both Ferraris now Kimi [Raikkonen] is all of a sudden driving really well, which is great to see.”

Bottas admitted his Q3 crash “ruined the weekend” but said he was trying not to be as hard on himself as he was last year.

“I think something I learned last year [is] you need to learn from every mistake but there’s a limit [to] how much you need to beat yourself up,” he added, “because there’s a race always in one or two weeks again and you need to be at your best mental and physical shape.”

“I tried to maximise [the race], this was the result but I’m not panicking about it,” he added. “It’s just one race out of 21, long year ahead.”

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Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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81 comments on “Australia shows Mercedes need Bottas to perform – Hamilton”

  1. “It was one against two,” said Hamilton. “And it’s not easy to fight against a team that has two cars in the mix as one team with one.”

    He’s kidding right? Tell that to Vettel in 2017…

    1. Isn’t it his point? To point out to Vettel that Raikkonen might be fighting him this year?

    2. @flatsix I don’t see how. Both fought 1 v. 2 like that, and both lost. I think that sort of helps his point.

      1. @davidnotcoulthard Let me rephrase, I find it funny how he mentions that after one race, whereas Vettel had this entire 2017 and not once brought Kimi his pace to the discussion.

        1. SparkyAMG (@)
          27th March 2018, 13:18

          @flatsix Vettel and Kimi have long been friends outside of the sport so you’re unlikely to find either driver being overly critical of the other. I’d argue that Kimi could have done with someone reminding him that he was constantly letting the team down rather than glossing over his terrible performances realtive to Vettel.

          1. @sparkyamg The entire ‘friends’ thing is so overused. They’re no better friends than Hamilton and Bottas for example. I have never seen any picture of them doing anything together out of F1, that doesn’t mean they probably get along better than other pairs, but ‘friend’, not really…

          2. SparkyAMG (@)
            27th March 2018, 14:01

            @flatsix I doubt Hamilton and Bottas have ever played badminton together…

        2. @flatsix

          I find it funny how he mentions that after one race, whereas Vettel had this entire 2017 and not once brought Kimi his pace to the discussion.

          That’s because Vettel rather have a weak teammate. Vettel might gain a few points from the team favouring him over Kimi in terms of strategy, updates, etc. , but he’ll lose points to the Merc drivers because it’s 2 on 1. If Vettel wants to make it 2 on 2, how about getting a Ricciardo, Verstappen or Alonso alongside him. I think that would wipe the smile off his face.

          1. @todfod But it isn’t 2 on 2 is it now,… Mercedes specifically chose Bottas to be a no.2.

          2. @flatsix
            It will be 2 on 2 once Bottas gets back to form. You can’t judge him by one race weekend. He took 3 race wins last year and took the battle to Seb on several occasions. Kimi on the other hand was screwed out of race wins by his own team. Ferrari’s approach is always focused around 1 driver and that’s why Seb doesn’t complain about Kimi joining the battle.

          3. @todfod You’re completely missing the point. Last year it was 2 on 1 more often than not, and that 1 is Vettel, not Hamilton. And the instances where Ferrari actually favored Vettel didn’t affect the points swing between Ferrari and Mercedes as a team. I’d also argue Mercedes their approach is very much identical to Ferrari since 2017…

    3. @flatsix Are you referring Bottas helping Hamilton last year, or are you saying that Raikkonen was nowhere most of last season?

      1. FlatSix (@)
        28th March 2018, 7:13

        @peartree Although I don’t think I have to ‘prove’ Bottas helped Hamilton on several occasions last year (Spain comes to mind) though that wasn’t really what I was talking about. I think that’s only normal that if you cannot win the title you at least help your teammate do so in the boundaries of what’s acceptable. The thing I was referring to was for example Sochi where Hamilton clearly had an off weekend but instead of having Vettel just cruise to the win it was Bottas who took it off him. The Ferrari wasn’t good enough to do that, but when Vettel was leading Hamilton it would’ve helped him had Kimi been between them on more occasions.

        1. @flatsix No, you don’t have to “prove”, I think it’s reasonable to help your team-mate on round 5. So you were stating the latter, The Ferrari car and Raikkonen couldn’t help, it’s just that your comment was a bit unclear.

  2. Its an interesting comment from Hamilton. He always seems to be the guy who thinks he can win on his own (and rightly so) but then calls out from help from his team-mate. If he had won he would have said nothing. I think its the second time he has thrown it down to Bottas lately as he made a comment something like ‘he has nowhere to hide this year’ in the pre-season. A few mind games early??

    1. @garns I honestly don’t think Hamilton is anywhere near interested in playing mind games with Bottas. You can call him arrogant if you like but there’s no disgrace in Hamilton telling himself he’s better than Bottas.

      1. @flatsix – No I wasn’t calling him arrogant (but I think they all have that make up in their DNA to some extent) but not sure the point of his comment except for if Bottas was there they could have closed off Ferrari in their game plan? That may be so by Toto blamed the mistake on a computer error. This happened to Lewis in Monaco a few years back- someone needs to buy Mercedes a $5 stop watch from Rebel Sport I think.

        Agreed though- I don’t think he needs or wants to play mind games with Bottas, which made the comment more interesting.

    2. Well it’s a simple fact that if it’s 2 against 1 at the front, the team with 2 can split the tire change strategy – opting to go longer or shorter on the first set of tires, increasing their chances of benefiting from a SC etc.

      That said, I still think Hamilton should have stayed out and mirrored Vettel, his more likely rival over the season, especially as that’s what he said he’d have preferred to do. There’s an over-reliance on data crunching which this episode exposed. A wrong data input or algorithm, or an unseen factor, and its utility crashes. The best thing Hamilton could have done was to push the speed to the limit (and a bit over if he could get away with it) knowing that Vettel was virtually certain to pit.

      1. @david-br – Yes I understand that mate, I was being a little tounge-in-cheek saying Lewis seems to win no matter if he has help or not- so I didn’t see why he needed his team-mates help now, only for the fact he lost. All good.

        A wrong date input data or algorithm is my point- F1 outsmarts itself too often- a simple stopwatch and he is gold- same as Monaco in 2015 I think?

    3. Archit (@architjain07)
      27th March 2018, 14:46

      I dont see Hamilton talking about him winning the race. More like Mercedes has a better chance of winning the race if it were 2 vs 2.

    4. @Garns I think that Hamilton’s message translates more like “Mercedes needs you Valtteri, cheer up mate”. Mercedes made a rare error in Australia but otherwise everything seemed to be under control, with or without Bottas.

      Tactical games involving the other car become important when two teams are closely matched. When one team dominates, then it is a different story. For instance, sometimes Webber was right behind Vettel in the second half of 2013, sometimes he retired or was further behind. However, that did not matter as the combination of Vettel and RB9 was unbeatable, Vettel would actually have won the constructors’ title alone. I believe that Mercedes are pretty much in the same situation at the moment – the car is both quick and reliable on Sunday, even better on Saturday and Hamilton is as strong as ever. In-season development has never been an issue for them either. It does not even matter if their advantage on a particular circuit is 0.2s or 0.7s per lap. For sure, they will lose some races this year and extra buffer (ie. Valtteri Bottas in this case) is always appreciated but I think that Hamilton here is just trying to cheer up his team mate and most probably also downplaying the team’s strength and managing expectations.

  3. Well, Bottas’ bid to get a new contract for next year hasn’t exactly started well has it?

    Would interesting to see what will happen if he continues to perform poorly. The other thing to note is that, if his form persists, Merc would have 2 years of “peace” in the garage while ending up with the same end result (2 WDCs and WCCs).

    Hence, will they risk the “peace” by signing Danny Ric?

    Bottas was supposed to be World Championship material, but he’s proven otherwise. Still got time to turn it around, but it will be surprising if he does. Bringing in Ocon next year might suit Merc more than Danny Ric, simply because is from the Merc stable, and will not upset the “peace”.

    1. @jaymenon10 I think Danny would fare better than Bottas, but unless Hamilton has an off season like Vettel had in 2014 I highly doubt he’d stand a chance. I honestly think Rosberg is overall a better F1 driver than Ricciardo is today. The only up he has over Rosberg is racecraft, which incidentally isn’t much needed if you can start from pole 50% of the time, and start second the other 50%,…

      1. As a big fan of Danny Ric, I hope you’re wrong.

      2. but unless Hamilton has an off season like Vettel had in 2014

        @flatsix incoming comments telling you Vettel is over-rated in 3….2…1…

        1. I think Vettel’s racecraft is correctly rated as ‘mediocre’ :O)

          1. Correct, maybe if you’re in 2010 and fixating on 2 crashes.

        2. @flatsix – I disagree with that mate and think Danny Ric is better than Rosberg and would give Hamilton a bigger challenge that most would expect (and yes, I think Max would do the same also).
          I also think Valtteri’s issues in being competitive with Lewis is more psychological than anything else. He isn’t as quick on one lap pace but should be able to be more competitive in racing over a season.

          As @jaymenon10 mentioned why upset the apple cart and sign Dan, but Mercs may be worried Lewis may just disappear from F1, as he has hinted a few times, and they are left without a superstar. This is by no means meant to be disrespectful to Bottas but from a marketing point of view Dany Ric if marketed correctly can be a major superstar worldwide.

          Also some may think if Ocon gets a seat next to Lewis he will be a shrinking violet waiting his turn!! He wont- the young fella has similar talent as Max and wont care who he races, he will ruffle some feathers ‘for sure’.

      3. Whoa down there @flatsix, I think DannyRic would have been more than a match for Rosberg on a good day. I can see them both being evenly matched in most departments but Danny is a phenomenal overtaker, something Rosberg was a bit shy of.

    2. @jaymenon10 I like the idea of Ocon to be in Merc but not for the ‘peace’ but the opposite. Ocon never hesitates to accused his teammates on social media right away when things don’t suit his liking.

      1. @ruliemaulana So…expecting real telemetry from any of the two if they’re ever paired?

        1. @davidnotcoulthard I was thinking something simple like celeb’s tweet war, but having Freedom of Information Act to Mercedes data could be a good thing for Force India and Williams.

  4. If Wolff had been allowed to sign his mate Vettel then they wouldn’t have to worry about Ferrari at all. That’s what Ron Dennis would have done.
    Mercedes will be left exposed if Ferrari gain ground in development this year. Then Riccairdo at Ferrari next year? Merc will be stuck with Bottas until the end of 2020 with the top tier drivers all tied down.

    1. It would be very hard to convince Vettel (back then) to go to Mercedes, it is a love affair between him and the scuderia

      Mercedes has Ocon as an option, but he has to deliver and that won’t be easy against Perez

      1. I bet Perez is very good though. I think he’s kinda underrated. He became better than Hulkenberg in time (though that might be just the post-turbo/pirelli-Hulk) and Ocon is already more or less on par. And as it is Hulkenberg doesn’t seem any slower than the Red Bull drivers who are some of the best on the grid as well.

    2. Magnussen will replace Kimi if he continues doing star quality races in a Haas. Again this week he was awarded “driver of the day” by both media and F1-fans. Of course Ricciardo is a bigger name, but it’s unlikely Vettel will accept him. If Kimi can continue to beat Vettel or win races, only he decide when it’s time to go.

      Even Hulkenberg keep a low profile after his arrogant attack on Magnussen. I think he now realized Magnussen is a very skillfull competitor.

      1. I’m glad I’m not the only one who has had this thought process about Magnussen. His stock has risen since joining Haas and more performances like Melbourne could well put him in contention for the drive if Raikkonen retires. His robust approach has served him well since last year and beating Grosjean would be a big statement.

      2. If Kimi can continue to beat Vettel or win races, only he decide when it’s time to go.

        @racefan Continue? When exactly did it start then? Your narrative that Vettel is the sole decider on who’s next to him is getting old as well.

        @deej92 That being said Magnussen is in no way on the radar of Ferrari, or so I believe. Nor is he good enough, otherwise he would’ve replaced Kimi already.

  5. now Kimi [Raikkonen] is all of a sudden driving really well, which is great to see.”

    Underestimated him, did we ? Lewis ? :-P
    Casual remark on a Former Champion.
    Am sure Kimi wouldn’t mind but bwoah…he did a great job at Albert Park.

    1. i don’t think that is unfair, he has had about 6 great races in nearly 10 years. He has the skill’s we all know it. The rest of the Kimi package is seriously lacking…

      He did ok in albert park. A good qualifying and an ok race.

  6. It is an interesting situation for sure. I completely get what LH is saying, but I think there are reasons why he can say this now. Mainly, I doubt that LH would be happier if Nico were still on the team, as he had been contracted to be for last year and this, until he retired. Last year VB was not going to be a real threat, at least not like Nico was, and of course how could he as the newby on the team. And he was even given a few orders. That’s ok, so was Nico, so was LH a few times during that rivalry. It wasn’t anything conspiratorial, but rather situational during the odd race.

    I think LH is quite confident VB is not going to be Nico in terms of competition, so he can say with comfort that he needs VB up there. And it really is the same philosophy as TW had, which is why he had re-signed Nico. Better to have two blokes locking out the front row and holding the competition at bay that way, and who cares who which one wins the WDC as long as one of them does…WCC too of course.

    It still holds that in fact if VB does up his game and fight for wins, the gloves will have to come off, as TW has said. So I just think that LH is saying what he is saying with a proviso…I need VB up there with me, but not to take points away from me, because both Ferraris seem a threat so far not just one, and possibly same with RBR. I predict that on average LH will have more pace than VB, which means that there will be a few more times when VB will have to cede a spot to allow LH by to go after whoever is ahead, especially if the dirty air effect is even greater than last year.

  7. From a constructor’s point of view what HAM says makes sense, in terms of the WDC then having another car at the front to potentially take points of your rivals again makes sense. HAM is always up for a challenge but with the continued threat from Ferrari and now it seems from a greater extent Red bull it makes more sense to divert your attention to them than your team mate. Once the WCC is won or no longer under threat the gloves will come off even more so and the in team rivalry will return. But for now I think from HAM’s perspective, united we stand.

  8. It just the first race. I knew Bottas still far from Rosberg level but unless his confidence was destroyed because of this race, he’ll be in the front row in no time with that 3-4 tenth advantage. Lewis should not put more pressure on his teammate publicly.

    And as a Kimi fan, I wouldn’t put my hope that high. If he can disrupt the championship as in being a great wingman to Vettel all season long, I’ll be glad enough. At least there will be some excitement to count on.

  9. Ben Rowe (@thegianthogweed)
    27th March 2018, 13:34

    What Bottas did this weeknd was only slightly more costly to the team in terems of points than what hamilton did in Monaco last year. They both climed the same amount of places during the race. Both tracks were extremelly hard to overtake on. So to me, Both have made critical mistakes. But this is the first time Bottas has ben responsible for a retirement in the race or qualifying since he started in 2013. It is unlikely to happen again. I’m not quite sure Bottas made the win for Hamilton much less likely. I still expect him to be better than last year. We should forgive him for 1 mistake like this given Hamilton made 2 huge mistakes in qualifying last year and Bottas never started lower than 6th.

    Certainy would say he was a struggler this weekend, but I think he’ll do btter from now on.

    1. Well said.

  10. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
    27th March 2018, 13:44

    Lewis is being very kind saying it was 2 vs 1 but he didn’t lose the race because of the 2 cars – he lost it because of the other 2 cars. I agree with Lewis that Mercedes will need Bottas to step up and fight and the real reason is because the fight is no longer 2 vs 2 – it’s not Lewis and Bottas vs Vettel and Raikonnen.

    The 2018 race is 2 Mercedes cars vs 4 Ferrari cars. Ferrari has unofficially added 2 more red cars on the grid as Horner is hinting at. Mercedes has to rely on their 2 drivers to fend off 4 cars, 2 of which are just there for race and strategy disruption. Red Bull could up the battle to 4 vs 4 with Toro Rosso but the switch to Honda and new drivers won’t help so they are probably 2 vs 2.

    From a challenge perspective, I’d love to see Lewis fight a team with 4 cars (2 equally fast and 2 slightly slower cars). He has the skill but he needs the reliability and the strategy and luck to beat them.

    As for Ferrari, it’s hard to be a fan – I never understood why the Mafiosi, er I meant Tifosi, support a team like a Ferrari. I just hope Don Corleone, sorry I meant Sergio Marchionne, chokes on his cigar at the end of the season when he sees Lewis and Mercedes beat them fair and square against all odds. They are becoming a bunch of sore losers who couldn’t even win the season with the best car in 2017.

    1. very insightful, fact driven comment you got there

    2. Can’t really agree with your math, but I think overall it is going to be an LH/SV/MV race as the season goes along and we see how different teams do on different tracks and things average themselves out. Haas seem like they will be strong, but I just suspect that on average the top 3 teams will remain so.

      I suspect where you are coming from is that you think Haas detonated themselves to help Ferrari, and I think that is highly unlikely. If Ferrari is to be a force, they need to be up there with LH, leaving Haas in the dust, so I think it will be rare that a Haas or two can help Ferrari. And besides, even the more conspiratorial person could not foresee that two Haas leaving the race would have then guaranteed SV the lead and the win. If a safety car had been brought out rather than a vsc then a safety car, SV would not have lead, and Haas couldn’t have known they were going to bring out both and that SV would benefit the way he did.

      I also fail to understand how a team that won the WCC did not have the best car. The points were 668 to 522 or 146 more for Mercedes than Ferrari. So they have the trophy. So Mercedes had the best car. It wasn’t really close in the end. After the top 3, Force India scored 180 something, and then no other team got anywhere near the 146 that Mercedes beat Ferrari by, so I think it is quite clear who had the better car. 12 wins, to Ferrari’s 5, and RBR’s 3. Ferrari had 2 wins in the last 10 races. They (Ferrari) only appeared stronger in the first half due to the Merc being a bit of a diva (still won 6 out of 10 in the first half anyway). Maybe at times when a team comes a close second to the ultimate WCC winners, you could argue the second place team had the better car and otherwise it was just down to circumstances, but with this kind of margin, 146 points, there is nothing to support your opinion on this.

      1. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
        27th March 2018, 15:04


        I suspect where you are coming from is that you think Haas detonated themselves to help Ferrari, and I think that is highly unlikely.

        It’s highly unlikely that they didn’t do it to help Ferrari – the odds are well over 99.9999%.

        You might be right but it’s such a slight chance that you just can’t logically support it. It’s more logical to support the claim that Vettel will have a gender change and become a woman because the odds of that happening are actually higher than the 2 Haas failures being accidental.

        I love Haas, I really support Romain Grosjean even when all of you criticized him, they are my home team, I want them to succeed BUT they have committed a crime against the sport and they need to pay for it along with Ferrari.

        If this was a real crime, they’d be thrown in jail for life using any judicial system. I’d much rather that Haas had sold the team last year than for him and Steiner allow Ferrari to run a 4 car team and they disrupt races – it doesn’t a genius to see the benefit of that. They are not being clever – they are simply cheating.

        1. @freelittlebirds ‘The odds’…based on your choosing of a method tailored to support your opinion, based on numbers of tire changes all the teams do throughout a season…ie. nothing whatsoever that is proof of anything.

          “Committed a crime against the sport”? Come on now, rein it in.

          Haas has done nothing wrong nor illegal, neither in Australia nor by having half their car be a Ferrari. Some have even suggested this is the way for F1’s lesser teams to have a fighting chance, and that with the imbalance of power the top 3 teams have, the lesser teams no longer have a chance when they have to do more on their own such as they have been. Right now there just isn’t a Mercedes customer team that has been able to do it the way Haas appears for now to have done it.

          1. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
            27th March 2018, 15:35

            @Robbie How did I tailor the method? I used the number of wheels changed during a race over the entire season. I didn’t use the wheels in practice, qualifying or anything like that.

            I didn’t fabricate anything and in fact I went as far as to lower the odds by including 10 wheel nut failures per season, which is as I expected, high.

            What about the odds of a wheel failure bringing out a safety car or both cars leaving pit lane with wheels not attached?

            If you include those, the odds are actually even smaller but I didn’t include them out of leniency for Haas.

            I even suggested that the math could be wrong but my impression was that people thought the calculations were correct – they simply didn’t agree with the statement because it’s hard to accept even for me but you’d be shocked what people do out there.

            The only point others have made are that Haas lost their biggest result – do you have any idea how many people do harm to other people even if it costs them their freedom for life which is a lot more important than a few points?

            If we used points or freedom as the measurement for not committing crimes, then all criminals are innocent. Why would they commit a crime that would cost them so dearly? The defendant could just plead “are you crazy your honor? why would I kill this person and risk going to jail for life?”

            There is no argument that can be made against that except that people do it…

          2. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
            27th March 2018, 16:03

            @Robbie I’m also in total agreement with you with regard to Haas’ strategy for entering. I think that was brilliant and they reaped the benefits. I was very impressed with Force India last year but they appear to be struggling this year.

          3. @freelittlebirds

            How did I tailor the method? I used the number of wheels changed during a race over the entire season. I didn’t use the wheels in practice, qualifying or anything like that.

            I didn’t fabricate anything and in fact I went as far as to lower the odds by including 10 wheel nut failures per season, which is as I expected, high.

            This is where you failed. Imagine the chance of wheel change to go wrong is 25%, it will always be 25%, does not matter the number of changes there are.

            Also, since you are so convinced your method is bullet proof, you consider the human factor right? Different mechanics, different teams, different training regimes, number of repetitions before those stops, different approach in training team by team, placement of the cars in the pit-box, psychological effect of a previous error.

            Regardless of what you did, I can also play with numbers, for example, the last 7 unsafe releases, 4 of them where from Haas, that’s 57%, which means whenever there is an unsafe release, more than 1 in 2 will be a Haas car, guaranteed! Also, the other 3 where made by Ferrari, Renault and STR, while other teams don’t have any. Haas is 400% more likely to have a wheel nut problem than those, and ∞% more likely than those that haven’t had problems, this is also as you can see statistically correct and proves that they didn’t fabricated the result! And these odds are well over 99.9999% too

          4. @freelittlebirds I wasn’t suggesting you fabricated the numbers, just that you tailored your own method, that being taking one factor of wheel changes over all cars over a season, and then you consider that proof, as in, these numbers are thus, therefore there can be no other conclusion than a conspiracy for Haas to help Ferrari in Australia 2018. Do you think you’d have enough here to take to a court of law, since it is you that are suggesting something criminal here?

            I would think that if indeed there was some plot here, Ferrari needn’t have had Haas completely take themselves out of the race for 0 points and 0 constructor money. Both cars. They could have simply had one car go off, only to get going again after the vsc came out, or what have you. There would have been no need to go to such extremes on the hope that perhaps that might help SV somehow, as long as they do a VSC followed by a SC which they could not have known. No they could have easily still been in the points albeit behind Ferrari, at least with one car, if this was engineered. Put another way…if Haas has now learned that 2-car dnf’s are the price he will actually pay for going with Ferrari, he’ll wish he didn’t bother.

          5. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
            27th March 2018, 17:16

            @johnmilk Fair point – let’s use your numbers and in fact let’s switch from wheels to incidents since wheels complicate the calculation.

            Your point that a single team may have a different probability to experience an unsafe release is correct.

            Haas had 2 unsafe releases in 2016 and 2017 in 41 races. They have 2 cars so that’s 82 races. The odds for HAAS of an unsafe release during a race for 1 car is then:


            Please be mindful that I’ve bumped the failures per race per car – not per pitstop per car. This lowers the probability by 2 and is extremely lenient towards HAAS.

            Now let’s calculate the chance of 2 unsafe releases in 1 race (not back-to-back in the same pitstop). We are trying to make your case.

            You are partially right and wrong at the same time that the odds are the same because the odds of getting heads when you flip a coin twice are 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.25. You are partially right that it’s 0.5 (50%) between spins as that remains constant but the overall probability is 0.25

            So let’s apply that to the race:

            1/41 * 1/41 = 1/1681 or 0.06%

            Again, I want to stress that this calculation is extremely generous as it’s at the race level, not the pit stop.

            Let’s not even take into account the likelihood that this would possibly affect the outcome of the race and benefit a team’s engine manufacturer. Let’s try our best to prove Haas’s innocence.

            As you can see, even under the best scenario Haas is guilty 1,680 times out of 1,681. I’m sorry if that’s not the result you wanted to hear – if it’s any consolation it doesn’t make me happy to see one of my teams being accused of such an act nor does the result for Mercedes or Ferrari – they both lost on Sunday.

          6. @freelittlebirds Now from another perspective: What were the chances of a team like Leyton House (even with Adrian Newey on board, but even then things like the FW14 wouldn’t have existed yet) leading 1-2 in France (and then ending up with a 2nd place), getting only 2 championship points during the rest of their existance? AFAIK pretty much 0. So there must be someone scheming something for some purpose which led to that happening, right?

          7. No @freelittlebirds my point is, we can be here all day coming up with numbers to base our argument, which are non-sense

            You are stating that they cheated based on statistics, you can’t apply it to this case.

            Imagine a crime with two suspects, one has caracteristics specific of an individual commonly known as X, while the others has caracteristics specific of an individual commonly known as Y. We know that individuals with caracteristics of X statistically commit 99% of the type of the crimes that are being judge, therefore X is guilty? See where this doesn’t add up?

            If you go by your line of thought we shouldn’t be here, because the probability of a planet to have intelligent life is 1/infinity

          8. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
            27th March 2018, 18:07

            @davidnotcoulthard An interesting stat for sure – that’s sad for that team but at least they got a podium and were leading at one point in time. I don’t know about the race – it could have been a result of picking the right tyres or setup in changing conditions or maybe the track favored their car.

            How did Maldonado win a race? Explain that one :-)

            Unsafe releases are controlled by the team – the other team’s retirement or mechanical problems can’t affect an unsafe release.

          9. How did Maldonado win a race? Explain that one :-)

            I think the burden would be on you since you’re the one right now in the perspective of there being malice until proof of a lack thereof instead of the other way around.

          10. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
            27th March 2018, 18:16

            @johnmilk But the numbers are not nonsense. It’s like saying you can’t determine the probability of a coin flip.

            You can and we just did and we did the best case scenario for Haas which is a gloom and doom scenario.

          11. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
            27th March 2018, 18:18

            @davidnotcoulthard of course I can’t prove it without an investigation:-)

          12. @freelittlebirds you can determinate statistics, you can’t use them to prove guilt however.

            Statistics and probability give you information about the likelihood of events based on past experience, they don’t predict the future nor can be used as facts

          13. @freelittlebirds

            of course I can’t prove it without an investigation:-)

            Which you’d need to do to prove Ferrari committed any wrongdoing in winning the Australian GP. That said if they did do so, like Singapore 2008 there will be an investigation. Until then though (if that happens at all), presume innocence (as would’ve been right before team Enstone got caught as well imo).

  11. @Michael You twist facts (Haas only slightly slower than Mercedes, Ferrari equally fast) to fit in your agenda in what is essentially a tasteless anti-Ferrari rant. So what being a Ferrari fan makes me a “mafioso” or mobster? Are you serious making statements like that?

    1. Don’t worry @philby, if @freelittlebirds owns a horse, he’s now in some trouble, but I agree, his are pretty mean words for a great team. Forza Ferrari!

      1. Which group was actually booing Lewis when he was on the rostrum at the Australian Grand Prix? It was quite mean and obnoxious and simply low. Was it not? What’s the saying? Something by proxy. Can’t quite put my finger on it. I’m sure the first word can be plural. You wonder if it is by proxy or if it’s just in the culture as a whole. I wonder. Wait for it …….. here it comes ……. BOOOOOOOOO! lol Your right Baron – mean behaviour is not nice now is it. Not nice being on the receiving end after giving it. I could not agree more.

    2. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
      27th March 2018, 14:55

      @philby I’m not sure I’m twisting facts as much as they are actual facts. The Red Bull couldn’t pass the Haas yesterday so the Haas is quick and both cars made Q3 and were running very high. Horner referred to the Haas car as a 2017 Ferrari which is not accidental. If they continue that way, the Haas cars will probably decide this championship.

      Yes, we all know Lewis and Mercedes’ critics are shouting that the Mercedes is a much faster car but the Mercedes is not really capable of passing the Ferraris even with DRS in Baku. Lewis figured it out very soon in 2017 and I wasn’t much slower in seeing it either.

      I’m not anti-Ferrari, they need to be in the sport and I wouldn’t mind to see them win if they can pull it off cleanly. I hate to see a team that’s trying to rig the game to win the championship with tactics that make Flavio Briatore seem like a scout.

      1. @freelittlebirds ‘If they continue that way…’ and odds are they won’t and that the top 3 will be Merc, Ferrari, and RBR.

        ‘Lewis and Mercedes’ critics are shouting…? or… LH and Merc fans are thrilled to see how strong they appear again this year, and F1 fans in general are observing the same. I suppose there are some critics who would say it is just the car, but we all know it is not entirely the car, but factually it is at least 80% of the necessary ingredient to win a WDC…some say even more than that. Their extra boost for q3 that seems better than any other teams’ extra mode, sure would have many people convinced that that is certainly not hurting LH, at a minimum, even if some think that is the ‘only’ reason he gets poles (I think those people would be the minority though).

        It seems like you are implying nobody can pass anybody this year and therefore Haas will be a disruptor to Mercedes to help Ferrari prevail. Sorry but after one race that is a real reach, and I’m quite sure that on average the top 6 spots during races will have Mercs, Ferraris, and RBRs there, with the Haas cars behind them and unable help anybody but themselves. It’s race one and I’d bet money that in terms of the development race Haas will lag behind the top 3, as well as perhaps McLaren, as the season goes along.

        1. Stating Baku and conviently forgeting Spain and USA shows how biased you are. Also in Baku hamilton arrived 0.800 – 0.900 behind Vettel and stil managed get alongside him. The facts are that with the evidence of Australia Mercedes is the the team to beat. Also they had the best car for the majority of last year. Fact 3, lets face it you are a Ferrari hater there is no shame in that except that you are in denial and can’t accept it.

  12. I’ll admit I didn’t see the interview so can’t judge by body language etc, but VB words come over as a rookie driver not a prospective World Champion. The atmosphere at Mercedes May make it impossible for him to speak his true mind but from what he says and how he says it, he seems already beaten this year..I hope I’m wrong and he can recover to challenge. Lewis needs to be beaten as often as possible for the good of the sport..

  13. Before you all jump on me, Lewis needs to be “able to be beaten”. That means one single dominant winner is not conducive to great competition, not because he’s Lewis. Haha, I could see a Twitstorm looming…🙄

  14. Stating Baku and conviently forgeting Spain and USA shows how biased you are. Also in Baku hamilton arrived 0.800 – 0.900 behind Vettel and stil managed get alongside him. The facts are that with the evidence of Australia Mercedes is the the team to beat. Also they had the best car for the majority of last year. Fact 3, lets face it you are a Ferrari hater there is no shame in that except that you are in denial and can’t accept it.


  16. Neil (@neilosjames)
    27th March 2018, 17:43

    Had Bottas been around (and assuming he’d have been behind Hamilton and ahead of Vettel, as qualifying pace suggested), he would probably have been given Vettel-covering duty (second car covering second car). So unless he’d deliberately slowed on the VSC lap into the pits he’d have won, with Vettel second and Hamilton would have been third…

    So maybe it was better for Hamilton that he wasn’t up there helping out.

    1. So unless he’d deliberately slowed on the VSC lap into the pits he’d have won, with Vettel second and Hamilton would have been third

      I mean that is exactly Hamilton’s point though. That if Bottas had been up at the front there would have been a much better chance that Merc would have come away from Aus with the win.

  17. Come on! Mercedes is 1 second faster than Ferrari… there is no point to see another year of boring (NO) competition.
    Since 2009 F1 is just a “very fast queue”.

  18. Good grief!! There’s been one race. What happened in this race can’t be projected for the entire season. Seems like folks done gone mad in these here parts!

    1. @velocityboy +1, let’s just see what happens! My days

    2. +1

      And let’s not forget that Melbourne is rarely considered to be indicative of the shape of a season.

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